Breaking down Blue Jays’ high relief-pitcher targets

A pursuit of the consensus high free agent in the marketplace goes to attract loads of headlines and a spotlight, however the subsequent transfer the Blue Jays make might simply be within the bullpen.

Even if Tucker, Bo Bichette or one other important lineup improve is the place the place Toronto could make the most important impression, the position-player market has been glacial in latest weeks, with Josh Naylor incomes the one multi-year contract.

Relievers, then again, are coming off the board rapidly. Five bullpen arms have already obtained eight-figure contracts, headlined by Devin Williams’ $51-million deal signed earlier this week.

If the Blue Jays desire a confirmed, high-leverage arm, they’re working brief on choices — however there are nonetheless a couple of relievers remaining who might assist them within the late innings:

The Biggest Fish: Edwin Díaz

2025 workforce: New York Mets

2025 stats: 9.00 Ok/9, 2.43 BB/9 and 0.61 HR in 74 IP with a 2.31 ERA, 2.96 xERA and three.07 FIP for 1.4 fWAR

Projected contract (common of MLBTR + FanGraphs Crowdsource estimates): 4 years, $83 million

Why he’s price a glance: In the previous 4 seasons, Díaz has posted an ERA under 1.75 twice and fWAR over two twice. He brings the entire worth of a starter whereas delivering in a recreation’s greatest moments. Since 2021, his Win Probability Added (8.40) ranks twenty first amongst all pitchers of any sort forward of fellows reminiscent of Blake Snell (8.00), Chris Sale (8.00) and Kevin Gausman (7.81).

That’s removed from an ideal statistic, nevertheless it offers some conceptual framing for why he might receives a commission like a stable beginning pitcher. If Díaz isn’t the perfect reliever within the recreation, he’s near it. 

So, the query of signing the star nearer isn’t about his talent degree, it’s a philosophical one in regards to the worth of a reliever. The Blue Jays’ pursuit of Jeff Hoffman final low season confirmed a newfound open-mindedness about big-money bullpen arms, however Díaz is a unique proposition.

Making the case that Díaz is price what he’ll price is one hurdle, nevertheless it’s additionally troublesome to grapple with the chance price related to paying $20 million-plus to a reliever who might go to a participant in a bigger position. If the Blue Jays — who’ve been loosely linked to Díaz — go get him, it will likely be a sign that they’re prepared to throw warning to the wind like by no means earlier than.

The Rumoured Target: Pete Fairbanks

2025 workforce: Tampa Bay Rays

2025 stats: 8.80 Ok/9, 2.69 BB/9 and 1.04 HR in 60.1 IP with a 2.83 ERA, 3.04 xERA and three.63 FIP for 1.0 fWAR

Projected contract (common of MLBTR + FanGraphs estimates): 2 years, $17 million

Why he’s price a glance: Performance volatility is unavoidable with relievers, however Fairbanks has managed to keep away from an off 12 months since a tough first style of the most important leagues in 2019. Since then, his ERA has been 3.59 or higher each season, and he’s produced not less than one fWAR in 4 of the final 5 years.

That consistency is interesting, as is his common velocity of 97.3 m.p.h. His fastball-slider combo works barely higher towards right-handers, however his profession platoon splits are pretty impartial, and he has intensive expertise as a more in-depth, which means there are only a few late-game conditions he’d be uncomfortable in.

Despite all the positives, there are a couple of crimson flags with Fairbanks. He has an uncommon harm historical past that’s seen him constantly take care of one factor or one other, like a hip harm in 2023, and a nerve subject and again harm in 2024. Until 2025, Fairbanks had by no means pitched 50 innings in a season on the major-league degree.

The right-hander’s velocity, whereas wonderful, has additionally come down about 2 m.p.h. since 2023, with strikeouts falling alongside the way in which. 

Fairbanks is a logical goal free goal due to his constant success in late-inning roles, however there are legit issues that maintain him out of sure-bet territory.

The Sleeper: Shawn Armstrong

2025 workforce: Texas Rangers

2025 stats: 9.00 Ok/9, 2.43 BB/9 and 0.61 HR in 74 IP with a 2.31 ERA, 2.96 xERA and three.07 FIP for 1.4 fWAR

Projected contract (common of MLBTR + FanGraphs estimates): 1 12 months, $4.5 million 

Why he’s price a glance: Armstrong isn’t the best-known reliever obtainable, however he’s been probably the most efficient recently. The right-hander is coming off a stellar season, and despite the fact that his 2024 was bumpy (4.86 ERA), he was excellent in 2023 with a 1.35 ERA, placing him safely outdoors the one-hit-wonder class.

The veteran doesn’t throw notably exhausting (93-94 m.p.h.), however makes use of three totally different fastballs and has a decent sweeper with restricted downward motion that runs away from right-handed hitters.

Getting righties out has been his calling card his whole profession. They’ve hit simply .224/.288/.352 towards him all-time with a putrid .113/.185/.144 final season in 178 journeys to the plate. That might intrigue a Blue Jays workforce needing somebody to deal with crucial right-handed matchups now that Seranthony Domínguez is a free agent.

If Toronto signed Armstrong, the thrill would in all probability be muted, however solely 13 relievers have topped the three.4 fWAR he’s produced because the starting of the 2023 season. While he’s proven an preliminary curiosity in returning to the Texas Rangers, that’s no assure that he’s not open to different choices.

The Reunion: Seranthony Domínguez

2025 groups: Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays

2025 stats: 11.35 Ok/9, 5.17 BB/9 and 0.72 HR in 62.2 IP with a 3.16 ERA, 3.23 xERA and three.47 FIP for 0.9 fWAR

Projected contract (common of MLBTR + FanGraphs estimates):  2 years, $17 million

Why he’s price a glance: Domínguez struggled by way of the Blue Jays’ playoff run, strolling extra hitters (11) than he struck out (10) in 11.1 innings, however that doesn’t imply a return to Toronto is out of the query.

For starters, the right-hander’s earlier work within the post-season with the Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles was rock-solid, so there’s no actual fear that he can’t ship in huge moments. His profession playoff ERA is 1.86 in 29 appearances.

The Blue Jays additionally appreciated him sufficient to accumulate him halfway by way of 2025, and he largely delivered on expectations by lacking loads of bats, strolling too many hitters and conserving runs off the board at a stable clip. His struggles to harness his stuff and silence lefty opponents are well-documented, however he’s so dynamic towards righties that he’s nonetheless a weapon when deployed with some warning.

Bringing Domínguez again wouldn’t really feel like an enormous improve to a bullpen that faltered within the playoffs, but when Yimi Garcia is wholesome and Louie Varland settles in, Domínguez might thrive as a matchup fireman versus a go-to eighth-inning possibility. 

Unlike Fairbanks, there’s no signal that his velocity is slowing down, and he may even have some upside if the splitter and curveball he debuted in 2025 take a step ahead subsequent season.