Pros and cons of each path Maple Leafs might take with No. 1 choose

In the times main as much as the 2026 draft lottery, a storm gave the impression to be brewing across the Toronto Maple Leafs. 

The sting of a disappointing 2025-26 marketing campaign was nonetheless contemporary. Questions about the way forward for franchise cornerstone Auston Matthews swirled. And the hockey world appeared blended on the hiring of recent common supervisor John Chayka. But then got here a flip of luck, a dramatic shift in fortune — the first-overall choose within the 2026 draft fell into the group’s lap. 

The Maple Leafs will choose No. 1 for the primary time since 2016, the final time they missed the post-season. They’ll draft first for simply the third time within the membership’s historical past, the final two turns at No. 1 bringing in franchise legends Matthews and Wendel Clark.

This time round, although, the choice about who to pick for that prime spot is trickier.

Two dynamic offensive abilities proceed to vie for prime billing amongst scouts’ rankings, whereas a variety of elite defencemen — who the Maple Leafs arguably want way more — sit simply exterior the highest three.

Making the choice much more consequential is the state of the Maple Leafs franchise at this present second — after lacking the post-season for the primary time in a decade, the membership heads into 2026-27 with a contemporary slate. A brand new GM leads the entrance workplace, a brand new head coach will take over the bench, and a few notable roster surgical procedure appears all however sure. Making the correct name on June 26 shall be key in serving to set the Leafs up for a season of redemption, and for Chayka and Co. starting their first summer season in Toronto on the correct foot.

So, what ought to the Maple Leafs do? Toronto basically has 5 choices on the desk: draft one of many two standout prospects within the 2026 class (Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg), draft another person at No. 1, commerce all the way down to draft a lower-ranked prospect that will higher fill an organizational want (a defenceman), or commerce the No. 1 choose away in trade for a present NHLer who might assist them proper now.

With a month to go earlier than draft day arrives, let’s check out the professionals and cons of every of these choices:

Route 1: Draft Gavin McKenna first-overall
Pros: The professionals listed below are clear — drafting McKenna appears the most secure choice for Toronto. The Canadian child has been the discuss of the 2026 draft for years, and for the common fan, there’s sufficient identify recognition there that the choice could be celebrated by the Leafs trustworthy. More importantly, McKenna appears on observe to develop into an unimaginable expertise within the massive leagues. After a dominant remaining 12 months within the WHL that noticed him rack up 129 factors in 56 video games for Medicine Hat, {the teenager} turned in a productive freshman 12 months with Penn State, accumulating 51 factors in 35 video games on the faculty stage — 33 of these factors got here in his remaining 18 video games as he caught hearth down the stretch. There’s no query that the Whitehorse, Yukon product could be an impactful addition for the Leafs, significantly in changing a few of Mitch Marner’s misplaced dynamism on Matthews’ wing.

Cons: The potential of the draft’s different prime canine looms giant. While McKenna could be the most secure choose for the Leafs, there’s an opportunity he’s not really one of the best participant on this pool, as scouts seem break up on whether or not McKenna or Stenberg is the true prime expertise of the 2026 class (extra on that in a second). In any draft 12 months that includes two elite prospects battling for the No. 1 spot, the chance is fairly easy — if Toronto drafts McKenna, sees him battle in any approach, and watches Stenberg go on to develop into an all-world expertise within the NHL, that what-if will grasp over the Maple Leafs for the subsequent decade.

Route 2: Draft Ivar Stenberg first-overall

Pros: He may not be as acquainted a reputation for the common Leafs fan, however Stenberg’s promise leaves the Leafs brass with a critical conundrum. The winger has begun to edge previous McKenna in pre-draft rankings across the hockey world. Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala — previously the director of newbie scouting for the Florida Panthers — has the younger Swede ranked as his No. 1 prospect heading into the draft. He pointed to Stenberg’s versatility and defensive play as a key issue, calling the Frolunda HC product a extra full participant. But don’t sleep on Stenberg’s offensive ability — taking part in towards males within the Swedish league, {the teenager} put up the third-most factors of any draft-eligible participant in SHL historical past. The solely gamers who produced extra? Daniel and Henrik Sedin. The central purpose for Toronto should be strolling away with one of the best participant they will in June, and Stenberg seems to be like he might match the invoice.

Cons: Much just like the McKenna route, all of it merely comes all the way down to who winds up being the higher participant down the road. Given the stakes right here and the state of the franchises that might choose them, each younger stars determine to be linked as they begin their NHL careers. If Toronto takes a swing and drafts Stenberg, after which watches McKenna emerge as an all-world expertise — not solely within the NHL however on the worldwide stage, in a Team Canada sweater — it’ll sting for years.

Route 3: Draft another person first general
Pros: It’s robust to see many professionals right here, to be sincere. Though the Leafs could have extra urgent organizational wants elsewhere within the lineup, they little question might use some extra firepower after a season that noticed them end in the course of the pack offensively. Drafting McKenna or Stenberg appears the clearest path to upgrading in that regard on draft day. There is a promising centre within the combine in Caleb Malhotra — ranked the third-best prospect on this class by Bukala — and the Leafs have seen their depth down the center worn skinny over the previous couple of years. Still, taking Malhotra, or anybody else, above McKenna or Stenberg at No. 1 would appear a wild gamble.

Cons: The draw back right here is the very actual potential of Toronto strolling away, having left one of the best and second-best prospects on the board in pursuit of filling a selected want. Go again by means of the historical past of the draft, significantly the highest finish of it, and one of the best route has typically been the only one — choose one of the best participant obtainable, work out the whole lot else later. Going towards the grain and drafting another person first-overall would probably imply watching considered one of McKenna or Stenberg fall to Vancouver at No. 3 — little question a troublesome potential tablet for the Leafs trustworthy to swallow, until Toronto’s choose vastly exceeds expectations.

Route 4: Trade down and draft a defenceman
Pros: There’s an intriguing case to be made right here. Amid the hype, strain and expectation that comes with being granted the No. 1 choose, it appears absurd to not merely go the same old route and choose the participant Toronto believes sits on the prime of this draft class. But zoom out and take a look at this complete Maple Leafs period, the completely different iterations of their roster and the alternative ways by which they’ve come up brief, and one factor has lengthy gave the impression to be the important thing lacking piece in Toronto: a real, blue-chip, all-world defenceman. 

They don’t come round typically, and barring a uncommon little bit of chaos that enables one to develop into obtainable on the commerce market (see: Hughes, Quinn), these star rearguards are solely discovered within the draft. Toronto has a uncommon probability so as to add that franchise-altering piece to the group now. And there’s some real blue-line expertise on the board — right-handed defenders Keaton Verhoeff and Chase Reid, and left-handed defender Carson Carels, all venture to be top-pairing stars. If the Maple Leafs have an opportunity to commerce down a couple of spots and add that high-upside blue-liner, plus the return that will include giving up the highest spot, they might stroll away with the kind of back-end game-changer that’s eluded them for many years, and another property with which to maintain constructing.

Cons: Even so, there’s a danger of overthinking right here, of making an attempt to engineer an ideal outcome reasonably than simply taking the chance in entrance of them. Chayka has been burned on the draft for making an attempt one thing related earlier than — in 2019, the then-Arizona Coyotes GM traded the No. 14 choose and a second-rounder to Philly for the No. 11 choose. Chayka drafted defender Victor Soderstrom Eleventh-overall, touting him as an important addition to Arizona’s long-term core. The younger Swede by no means discovered his footing within the NHL. Philly, in the meantime, used that 14th-overall choose to draft Cam York. 

This could be a really completely different scenario — Chayka could be buying and selling down and including property, reasonably than making an attempt to maneuver up, and the defensive prospects he could be selecting from appear extra of a certain factor. Still, in the event that they swung such a deal and it didn’t pan out as anticipated, relinquishing the possibility so as to add McKenna or Stenberg might wind up turning into the defining failure of this entrance workplace’s legacy.

Route 5: Trade the No. 1 choose for an immediate-impact NHLer
Pros: This could be the nuclear choice. It all comes all the way down to how Toronto views its organizational timeline. After a disappointing 2025-26, essentially the most level-headed strategy could be drafting a blue-chip prospect first general and making an attempt to methodically rebuild the remainder of their roster forward of a 2026-27 marketing campaign that brings no ensures. That stated, the Maple Leafs stay beneath strain to persuade Matthews to remain in Toronto past the ultimate two years of his contract. 

If Chayka and Co. are motivated to show the membership round sooner reasonably than later, by making an attempt to place collectively a lineup that may make some actual noise as quickly as subsequent season, would possibly there be a deal available for a present NHLer who might make a extra instant affect? It would rely closely on who precisely could be on the opposite finish of such a commerce, and the checklist of names that will make it worthwhile is a brief one.

Cons: Given the place the Leafs are at proper now, sacrificing the long-term potential of McKenna or Stenberg to roll the cube on short-term success could be an unimaginable danger. Toronto’s been gifted a golden alternative so as to add some much-needed youth to the group — and it actually was a present, given the Maple Leafs had simply an 8.5 per cent probability to win the draft lottery.

The larger image is essential right here. After how final season ended, there’s a way that this period of Leafs hockey could be winding to an in depth. To commerce away the No. 1 choose and quit the possibility to begin turning the web page, to justify giving up a decade of efficiency from the likes of McKenna or Stenberg to attempt to squeeze just a little bit extra out of this chapter, the Maple Leafs would want to hit an absolute house run on the commerce market. 

Barring a deal that will herald a real all-world celebrity and a season of great post-season noise, this transfer would have the potential of growing older terribly as McKenna and Stenberg discover their footing within the league, and looking out worse with every passing season of their careers.