MLB Playoff Push: Blue Jays get shot at Guardians in wild-card chase

Coming off a collection loss to the Kansas City Royals that was punctuated by a 13-2 defeat, issues appeared to be heading within the improper course for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Yes, the Royals have been surprisingly scorching in August, however following Thursday’s loss, the Blue Jays’ FanGraphs playoff odds sat at 9.7 per cent, and so they fell 3.5 video games again of the ultimate wild-card spot within the American League.

So, how did they reply? By bouncing again, after all, to brush the Seattle Mariners, profiting from the out-of-town scoreboard to climb proper again into the post-season image.

Toronto will look to hold that momentum right into a pivotal collection this week in opposition to the Cleveland Guardians — who occupy the third wild-card spot — with an opportunity to realize additional floor within the chase for the post-season because the calendar turns to September.

The Blue Jays received their earlier three-game set in opposition to the Guardians this 12 months, successful two of three at Rogers Centre from April 24-26. Naturally, each groups’ rosters look fairly completely different from that early-season matchup, however the Blue Jays will likely be hoping for a repeat as they open a nine-game highway journey.

As Toronto and Cleveland duke it out, it is value maintaining a tally of the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers — each of whom are inside two video games of the Guardians — as they open new collection in opposition to the Colorado Rockies and Athletics, respectively.

With all that mentioned, here is a take a look at how the AL playoff race is shaping up as the ultimate month of the common season arrives:

If the post-season began as we speak

No. 1 and AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (82-54): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox (72-64): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (69-68) vs. No. 6 Cleveland Guardians (69-68)
No. 4 New York Yankees (78-59) vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (74-63)

It was a superb weekend for the Blue Jays and Orioles, with each AL East golf equipment finishing sweeps to realize floor on the Guardians, who dropped two of three to the Royals.

But past Toronto and Baltimore, no different crew within the chase managed to capitalize on Cleveland’s step again. Each of the Rangers, Mariners, Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers dropped their respective collection and noticed their playoff odds drop.

We’ve seen over the previous month simply how a lot a scorching week can shake up the standings. So, whereas the Twins, Mariners and Tigers might have appeared to barely fade from the pack, there are certain to be some twists and turns within the coming month earlier than the third wild-card victor definitively emerges.

One factor to look at in three AL collection with wild-card implications

Blue Jays at Guardians: Can Toronto’s bats preserve their energy surge going? It’s been a lean 12 months for the Blue Jays offence, however of their sweep of the Mariners, they outscored Seattle 19-4 and smoked 5 house runs over the three video games. With Toronto adjusting its rotation to make sure that each Dylan Cease and José Soriano begin in Cleveland, it may not want the seven- or eight-run outbursts to win, however a continued slugging presence could be greater than welcome within the pivotal matchup. All eyes will proceed to be on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and whether or not he can discover a groove via the ultimate month of the season, however Alejandro Kirk (.946 OPS) and George Springer (.858 OPS) have been the Blue Jays’ hottest hitters in August and can certainly proceed to be relied upon closely in a troublesome showdown in opposition to the Guardians’ pitching workers.

Orioles at Rockies: How does the highest of Baltimore’s rotation bounce again? The Orioles took care of enterprise over the weekend in Sacramento, sweeping an A’s crew that’s now 12-29 for the reason that all-star break. Fortunately for Baltimore, its schedule will keep delicate for a go to to Coors Field earlier than turning into more and more tough all through the remainder of September. The Orioles will hand the ball to Kyle Bradish and Tyler Rogers within the first two video games of their assembly in opposition to the Rockies, hoping Colorado’s struggling offence provides their prime arms an opportunity to construct some momentum heading into the ultimate month after shaky outings final week. Bradish and Rogers mixed to permit 13 runs over 9.1 innings on back-to-back days in opposition to the St. Louis Cardinals, including to what has been an uneven season for the duo. Baltimore will want each Bradish and Rogers in prime kind atop its rotation whether it is to make an actual run on the post-season, making their begins in opposition to one of many worst offences in baseball really feel like a golden alternative to get again on monitor.

Tigers at Twins: Could this be Detroit’s final stand? After their weekend set in opposition to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Tigers have now misplaced 5 consecutive collection and seen their playoff odds drop to a season-low 1.4 per cent. It’s already “in need of a miracle” territory, however Detroit has climbed out of the basement over the ultimate month in current historical past. In 2024, the Tigers’ odds sat at 2.5 per cent after a loss on Aug. 29 earlier than a 17-8 September earned them a spot in October. That’s to not say that the “Gritty Tigs” are more likely to return this 12 months, particularly after buying and selling Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. It does, nevertheless, present that this week’s intra-division matchup with the Twins — who desperately want some wins of their very own — could possibly be the Tigers’ final shot at happening a run. Detroit’s subsequent 10 video games come in opposition to AL Central opponents, together with 4 in opposition to the Guardians, establishing per week that would resolve whether or not it stays in these wild-card conversations or fully falls to the wayside.

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Monday morning, when it comes to playoff odds amongst American League groups battling for post-season spots.

Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Chicago’s FanGraphs odds: 85.6% | Chicago’s Baseball Reference odds: 96.4%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 67.4% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 72.9%

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 97.5% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.2%

Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 51.7% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 44.7%

Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 20.6% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 23.0%

Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 25.2% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 27.0%

Texas’s FanGraphs odds: 25.3% | Texas’s Baseball Reference odds: 22.6%

Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 5.5% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 2.9%

Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 19.5% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 9.2%

Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 1.4% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 2.0%