Analyzing the Maple Leafs’ low season: Better workforce, greater questions

The Toronto Maple Leafs made huge adjustments to their whole group this previous summer season, and lots of followers shall be grateful. By the time final season ended the vibes have been unhealthy, the workforce stopped successful, the gamers stopped pushing, and administration appeared out of concepts. 

Pruning the shrubs makes room for recent progress, and far pruning was accomplished.

We don’t know for positive that the Leafs are going to be good but, per se, however they’re very seemingly higher than final season, which additionally doesn’t imply a ton simply but. “Better” is nice once you’re coming off a playoff season; “better” once you miss the playoffs by 21 factors is the baseline expectation. 

So, what are we actually this season? As we assess that query, I feel it’s finest to maintain it pretty zoomed out to start out. I all the time discovered that making an attempt to assemble the lineup led me to apparent strengths and questions, so let’s begin there with the forwards:

Hope feels potential as a result of Toronto landed Gavin McKenna. They had an growing older roster of shoot-first triggermen and few guys who might dish it, so including McKenna is an on the spot improve; he sees the ice exceptionally nicely. Matthew Knies took a step as a passer, Easton Cowan ought to be higher too. And with assist from the improved again finish, I anticipate they’ll cross the puck higher. 

Out of the gate, I don’t have McKenna on the highest line. If you keep in mind Auston Matthews’ four-goal debut, he additionally didn’t begin on the highest line, however was on line three alongside Zach Hyman and William Nylander, each of whom have been rookies anticipated to get sheltered minutes.

Over the previous few years when the Leafs have acquired a participant they hoped would assist the highest line, they began them on that prime line. This establishes raised expectations, which might set folks as much as fail. Joe Thornton began in that spot and dropped, making a unfavourable early vibe. Nick Ritchie began in that spot and did the identical. You’re much better off to ease McKenna in and elevate him in sure spots in sure video games so he can construct confidence and ultimately really feel as if he’s earned a top-line spot that the workforce would clearly love him to have.

I’ve bought Roslovic on the highest line virtually as a placeholder. He’s bought a pair issues going for him: one is that final season demonstrated he’s bought the instruments to mild issues up in October hockey, the place groups make errors and likelihood is plentiful. He’s additionally bought a observe document enjoying with Matthews once they have been junior-aged, and continues to be expert sufficient to make the most of what Matthews can create. Matthews’ commonest linemate in 2025-26 at five-on-five was Max Domi, so having Roslovic (who’s doubled Domi’s aim totals the previous couple years) in that position ought to at the very least be thought of a viable beginning possibility.

Past that, in case you intend to have a extra purpose-built third and fourth line (say, defending, checking, hitting), you possibly can’t actually embrace Nylander or John Tavares within the backside six. They want offensive alternatives to assist the membership, and to get that, they’re going to wish a winger with a bit spunk, some leap, and the flexibility to win the puck again for them. After enjoying a significant position within the Marlies’ Calder Cup win, I’ve bought Cowan getting first crack at these minutes. 

So, now the underside six once more:    

McKenna — Sissons — Paul
Joshua — Blueger — Duhaime

This third line is form of the inverse of how I simply described the second line. This time, two guys are serving to one. McKenna might use some canines, guys who get the puck and go the paint and shall be prepared to face up for him if anybody takes liberties. If you noticed how Matthew Schaefer bought handled early final season, you’ll recall that groups went at him arduous to see if he’d fold, however the Islanders had his again at each flip. That allowed him to thrive all season lengthy together with his chest puffed out. 

Sissons and Paul are each confirmed grinders who present construction and might do some soiled work so McKenna can get a couple of moments the place he has time and house with the puck. They’re additionally adequate to complete if McKenna will get them some beauty.

This fourth line is one thing the Leafs want: a trio the place everybody totally intends to be a bottom-six participant. There’s no Jason Spezza or Thornton, there’s no Wayne Simmonds on the finish of his profession, none of those guys are like “I’ll start here but I don’t intend to play here all season.” Joshua, Blueger and Duhaime are bottom-six guys, and also you’d be shocked how a lot accepting a task helps gamers excel at it. 

Duhaime can bang, whereas Blueger and Joshua have established chemistry from their time in Vancouver. 

I’ll additionally notice that I used “bottom six” above and never “fourth line” as a result of this group would in all probability play as a lot because the third line. (I’d additionally notice that on this structure McKenna would get additional minutes on the highest energy play unit so he’s not losing away with 11 minutes an evening.)

It’s affordable to say {that a} fully-healthy Leafs ahead group appears playoff-calibre. None of this even touches the largest query although: simply what’s Matthews going to be in 2026-27? Is he nonetheless a celebrity, a star, or simply actually good? Is that prime line the large asset it must be? I’d think about the Leafs and Matthews just like the Jays and Vladimir Guerrero — if their celebrity is nice, the workforce may be nice. When their man struggles, the workforce’s ceiling is loads decrease. With Matthews, the solutions will seemingly be health-related. If he performs 84 video games this season, might the Leafs get one thing like 45 and 45 for 90 factors from him?

There’s much less to say concerning the defence, which is best general, however has an enormous floor-to-ceiling vary.

The addition of Darren Raddysh is the primary one I can keep in mind in years the place it simply appeared to make good sense. Right shot, good age, bomber on the facility play, test, test, test. And given a few of the contracts different defencemen signed this summer season, his deal already appears like a winner. 

I’ve bought him enjoying with Jake McCabe, who’s been requested to do a ton for the Leafs the previous couple years, however having him on the left facet simply makes the puzzle items match. He’s bodily, defends arduous, and might transfer the puck too. This can be a pleasant pair.

Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev — the opposite defence signing that simply made clear sense lately — is a little bit of a wild card, isn’t it? Their numbers collectively have in all probability been higher than you keep in mind. For Rielly, his anticipated objectives over the previous two seasons go from about 51 per cent at five-on-five to 58 per cent when paired with Tanev, so it’s definitely one approach to get essentially the most out of no matter Rielly is at this level. 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see a greater Rielly this yr (whose most-frequent companion final yr was an injured Brandon Carlo), or to see Tanev make a big distinction to the blue line. But the opposite facet of it potential too. Rielly simply totally hitting the downslope of his profession, or Tanev by no means being wholesome sufficient to play are each very potential outcomes as nicely. The Leafs can in all probability survive a type of issues, however not each. 

For the third pair, I’ve began Emil Andrae on his correct facet, with Oliver Ekman-Larsson enjoying his off-side. This pairs a younger Swede with professional and Ekman-Larsson ought to give Andrae an opportunity to have success in sheltered minutes. Last yr the Leafs noticed Philippe Myers play half a season’s value of video games on the underside pair, whereas Stecher performed 58. A half-dozen different names performed actual video games on the underside pair, too. OEL and Andrae can transfer the puck and make performs higher than any pair third pair the Leafs have had shortly. They aren’t bruisers, however Toronto’s forwards simply want the puck of their fingers extra typically, and these guys ought to do this.

You don’t win a Stanley Cup with this defence corps. But if it’s wholesome, it’s a playoff-worthy group. I additionally assume if the Leafs are aggressive this yr, the workforce continues so as to add.

As for the goaltending trio:

Bobrovsky
Stolarz 
Akhtyamov

Any certainly one of them might have a fantastic yr, couldn’t they? It feels not possible to foretell, however the way in which Sergei Bobrovsky takes care of himself ought to offer you hope that he can shoulder a good workload. And between the opposite two, the Leafs ought to get some good showings from their non-starter video games. 

Of course, we simply did this with Tanev-Rielly. These excessive ceilings don’t include excessive flooring. There are a number of layers of basement out there, too.

You don’t know, the Leafs don’t know, and I don’t know. Heck, the gamers themselves don’t both. Unlike the 5 or so groups with legit stud goalies, you possibly can put the Leafs in a category with out about 15 different groups throwing up their fingers, shrugging their shoulders, and saying “One of these guys should be good, no?”

The Leafs’ workforce save proportion was useless common final yr. I can see why they’re hopeful it’ll be higher.

The factor I like most concerning the Leafs heading into this season is that they made real, actual change, and if issues aren’t going nicely, it looks like their new GM John Chayka shall be aggressive sufficient to alter it some extra. Their head coach has some constructive concepts about committing to extra offence, which they should get again to. A recent workers means a recent motivation for gamers, and a brand new tradition can take maintain. 

If you possibly can’t inform by now, I preferred the Leafs’ low season, however I’m totally conscious it has the potential to go sideways primarily based on what they get from Matthews, McKenna, Rielly, Tanev, and Bobrovsky.

It’s going to take a while for all this alteration to really feel snug, and there could also be some ugly video games early. But if they will at the very least hold across the center of the division for a couple of weeks, they need to be capable of begin placing collectively some good efforts. 

If nothing else, the vibes are totally different, and for the higher. Leafs coaching camp begins subsequent week, and the entire whack of questions I’ve talked about above will begin to be answered.