How the Panthers can navigate Aleksander Barkov’s absence

A well-liked pre-season decide as this 12 months’s ‘bounce-back group,’ the Florida Panthers are 2-0-2 out of the gate. That began with a low-event 1-0 win over Carolina, then had a few come-from-behind video games that resulted in an extra-time loss, earlier than grinding out a regulation win Wednesday to finish their California highway journey.

Some of the early questions on this group had been starting to be answered, and principally within the optimistic.

• Will Jacob Markstrom (turning 37 in January) be ok to backstop a Cup contender? So far he has a shutout, a .927 save share, and is fifth in Goals Saved Above Expected, per MoneyPuck.

• A 12 months older now, is that this veteran group actually going to have the ability to dangle with and even dominate youthful, sooner groups the identical as they did two years in the past? So far they’re second within the league in anticipated targets share, third in Corsi share, and have surrendered the second-fewest high-danger possibilities at 5-on-5.

• Will they get overly aggressive and take too many penalties? Well, up to now this has rung true because the Panthers are tied with Carolina in occasions shorthanded. But it is also true that no group has had extra energy performs than Florida, however they’ve solely transformed on 4.3 per cent of these alternatives up to now.

But for all these good underlying statistics, one of many worst issues that would occur to this group did in simply its second recreation. When Aleksander Barkov left the ice in a heap of frustration after falling awkwardly on his left leg, it recalled final season when the captain needed to miss the complete season with a knee harm. Losing Barkov for one more 12 months would have been catastrophic to Florida’s playoff possibilities.

The “good” information got here Tuesday that Barkov will miss the subsequent six-to-eight weeks and won’t have surgical procedure.

“That’s our best window,” stated head coach Paul Maurice. “Could be a little less, could be a little more, but we think six-to-eight is the right rehab time.”

This timeline would put Barkov on monitor to return a while across the vacation season in December and have him miss round — or simply lower than — half of the season.

Florida has performed two full video games now with out Barkov, choosing up three of a doable 4 factors, and have tailored the roster. But Barkov continues to be one of many NHL’s finest two-way gamers, and there’s no direct alternative for him, so can the Panthers nonetheless find yourself as this 12 months’s bounce-back group in the event that they must play with out him for therefore lengthy?

Here’s how they could navigate the time with out him, and the choices they’ve.

How are the Panthers changing him within the lineup?

When Barkov went down halfway via the sport towards San Jose, the Panthers put Lars Eller in between Brady Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, however that was solely a short lived bandage. When they took the ice three nights later in Anaheim, Brad Marchand had returned to the lineup and was positioned at proper wing on the highest line, whereas Sam Reinhart moved to the center.

“Almost three moving parts,” Maurice stated of the brand new high line. “Brady’s new, Sam Reinhart’s playing a position he hasn’t played very much recently, and Brad would tell you the game was a whole lot different last night than his last 4-5 months of practice, so we think that line will continue to get better.”

In the primary recreation collectively, the Tkachuk-Reinhart-Marchand line outshot their opposition 4-0 at 5-on-5 and had an anticipated targets for share of 100 although they didn’t rating at even power. In their second recreation collectively, they had been dominant once more, outshooting the opposition 4-1 and having an anticipated targets share of 76.9 — though they did get outscored 1-0 on a play down low within the zone that, maybe, Barkov would have checked.

“It’s really a different look,” Reinhart stated of transferring again to centre. “You see the game in different areas. You pick up the puck with a little bit more speed at times, and you get it on your stick a little bit more. It’s a position I’ve switched a lot back and forth with, and the more time you’re able to play there, the more comfortable you are.”

This was purported to be the setup for now, however Tuesday’s recreation introduced much more dangerous information after Brad Marchand left with a leg harm close to the top of the second interval. Frank Seravalli cited studies that Marchand was seen post-game with a knee brace and crutches, however we’ll must seemingly look forward to Thursday to get an replace on Marchand’s standing.

In the meantime, with Barkov eliminated, Florida has been with out a participant they typically use to match up towards the most effective the opposition has. And since all 4 of Florida’s video games up to now have been on the highway, additionally they have not been in a position to line match in addition to they might at dwelling. In this sense, the coach famous the road of Sam Bennett between Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe has been key to their success up to now.

“Credit to that line on this road trip. Barkov has always been the guy who played against the other team’s best, and a lot of times it’s (Anton) Lundell, but it’s four straight games where that line’s played against the other team’s best,” Maurice stated. “And they’ve come out as a plus line. That’s huge for us.”

The wage cap implications

As lengthy as Barkov’s on LTIR with out being dominated out for the complete season and playoffs, the Panthers is not going to get the complete $10 million of cap reduction from his full contract. Under new CBA guidelines, the Panthers are solely getting a most of $3,973,228 (the common worth of all league contracts from final 12 months) in reduction.

In fundamental phrases: The Panthers have $2.248 million in “current cap space” in line with PuckPedia, and that is with Barkov and Jonah Gadjovich on LTIR. When Barkov is activated once more, that most $3,973,228 in reduction will likely be added again to Florida’s quantity, which might put them over the cap by roughly $1.7 million with none additional transactions. They may get underneath once more by sending Sam Lafferty and Alex Petrovic — the 2 gamers they known as up when Barkov was positioned on LTIR — again to the AHL. Marchand’s activation for the very first recreation Barkov missed was not a suspicious factor. Marchand was on IR, not LTIR, so his quantity was already counting in direction of the cap when Barkov was energetic. Florida is underneath the cap with a wholesome 21-man roster.

Does this make Dylan Larkin a commerce goal they might purchase?

In a phrase: no. Since Barkov is on monitor to return this season, the Panthers is not going to get full cap reduction, they usually must account for the captain’s return. The issues of a Larkin commerce involving Florida stay the identical as they had been when Barkov was wholesome: how would the Panthers make the cap quantity match, and what precisely have they got to maneuver to make it worthwhile for Detroit?

If a Larkin-to-Florida commerce had been to occur, it might appear Lundell could be a key half in a deal. His $5 million cap hit is extraordinarily useful and runs via the 2029-30 season, plus at 25 years outdated he is one of many youthful gamers on this core and is very valued by the coach for his shutdown abilities.

There is the one added wrinkle now with Marchand’s standing unsure. If he had been to go on LTIR, the Panthers would get the identical most cap reduction as they do with Barkov, they usually’d must have sufficient house so as to add Marchand again when wholesome.

But if the worst-case state of affairs occurs and Marchand is dominated out for the common season and playoffs, solely then would Florida get the complete $5.25 million in cap reduction from his contract. For these holding monitor at dwelling, Larkin makes $8.7 million towards the cap, so the maths continues to be troublesome to line up with out a vital participant being moved off the roster.

Is this as dangerous as final 12 months but?

While the 2-0-2 report to start out is strictly what the physician ordered, the monkey’s paw curled, and now two key contributors are harm once more. But the Panthers are aware of not letting issues spiral and go off monitor like final season and, for now, the listing of accidents continues to be a lot shorter than it turned in 2025-26.

“We had a little experience with Sasha going down, so it wasn’t as shocking the second time it happened,” Maurice stated. “We know we have good depth. There’s a threshold with any team, a number of injuries you just can’t survive, and we passed that early last year so we have real good resolve here. The tank is deep right now. We had a big summer off, so we’re strong.”

Their dwelling opener is up subsequent, this Saturday towards Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes, and the Minnesota Wild.