The Lakers and the problems of defending far-off traded picks

Much has been made this offseason of the Lakers‘ means to commerce solely their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks. That limitation is the results of two NBA restrictions associated to draft-pick trades — the “Stepien” rule and the “seven-year” rule.

As we clarify in our glossary entry, the Stepien rule prevents groups from leaving themselves with out first-round picks in two consecutive future drafts, whereas the seven-year rule prohibits groups from buying and selling draft picks greater than seven years sooner or later.

The Lakers traded their 2024 first-round choose to the Pelicans within the Anthony Davis blockbuster and gave New Orleans the choice to defer that choose to 2025. Because New Orleans could obtain that choose in ’24, the Stepien rule prohibits the Lakers from leaving themselves with no first-rounder in 2023, and since New Orleans could defer the choose to ’25, L.A. can also’t commerce its ’26 first-rounder.

That leaves the Lakers’ 2027, 2028 and 2029 first-round picks as tradable — their picks in 2030 and past are presently off-limits as a result of they’re eight or extra drafts away — however shifting the 2028 choose would render the ’27 and ’29 first-rounders unmovable as a result of Stepien rule, which is why we haven’t heard that ’28 choice talked about in any rumors this summer time.

As the Lakers mull the potential for attaching their 2027 first-round choose and/or their 2029 choice to Russell Westbrook’s contract in an effort to purchase a number of rotation gamers, the potential safety on these first-rounders will probably be a serious consideration.

NBA golf equipment are typically hesitant to maneuver unprotected first-round picks, particularly once they’re to this point down the highway — in any case, it’s completely attainable that neither LeBron James nor Davis will probably be a Laker by 2027. Los Angeles will wish to give itself some safety – even when it’s gentle safety – within the occasion that the membership bottoms out and that ’27 choose finally ends up at No. 1.

However, choose protections grow to be sophisticated when discussing draft belongings which can be 5, six or seven years down the highway as a result of seven-year rule. Not solely can a staff not commerce a 2030 choose proper now, but it surely can also’t push the protections on a choose past 2029.

As a reference level, let’s take into account the first-round choose that the Pistons despatched the Rockets within the Isaiah Stewart/Trevor Ariza/Christian Wood
commerce throughout the 2020 offseason. At the time of that deal, the protections on the Pistons’ traded first-rounder had been as follows:

• 2021: Top-16 protected
• 2022: Top-16 protected
• 2023: Top-18 protected
• 2024: Top-18 protected
• 2025: Top-13 protected
• 2026: Top-11 protected
• 2027: Top-9 protected

The Pistons pushed the seven-year rule to the restrict with that traded first-rounder, making use of protections to all seven years during which the choose may change arms.

The choice, which has since been rerouted from Houston to Oklahoma City to New York, has but to convey, however there’s an excellent likelihood it is going to achieve this finally, until the Pistons’ rebuild actually crashes and burns. If the first-rounder stays protected via 2027, the Knicks would as a substitute obtain the Pistons’ 2027 second-round choose, since Detroit wasn’t in a position to push the protections into 2028 as a result of seven-year rule.

With that in thoughts, it’s value contemplating what the Lakers can realistically do with protections on their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks.

Let’s suppose they wish to put top-10 safety on their 2027 first-rounder, then push that first-rounder to 2028 if it lands within the high 10 in ’27. Due to the Stepien rule, taking that method would jeopardize their means to commerce their 2029 choose, since they wouldn’t be capable of commerce each their 2028 and 2029 first-rounders.

To work round that difficulty, the Lakers may counsel leaving these top-10 protections on the 2027 choose and sending their commerce accomplice second-round picks in 2027 and 2028 if the first-rounder lands in its protected vary. That would depart the 2028 first-round choose untouched and would protect L.A.’s means to commerce its 2029 first-rounder.

However, the Lakers’ commerce accomplice would probably be reluctant to log out on these phrases, since that staff would solely have one shot on the 2027 first-round choose earlier than it turns right into a pair of far much less priceless second-rounders. Any staff discussing a take care of the Lakers would presumably push for that 2027 choose to be unprotected or extraordinarily flippantly protected in an effort to keep away from that danger.

So let’s say the Lakers comply with make the 2027 choose unprotected. Could they then add protections to the 2029 choose as a substitute? Well, as a result of seven-year rule, there are even fewer choices in establishing a backup plan for a protected 2029 first-rounder, for the reason that Lakers wouldn’t have the flexibility to push that choose to 2030.

Realistically, if the Lakers needed so as to add protections to their 2029 first-round choose, they might solely comply with ship their 2029 second-round choose as an alternative if the first-rounder landed in its protected vary. That’s a good larger danger for a possible commerce accomplice.

The means to guard traded draft picks provides groups the flexibility to drastically affect the worth of these traded picks. For instance, if a lottery-bound staff agrees to commerce its 2023 first-round choose, however insists on including top-20 safety and sending a 2026 second-round choose as an alternative if the first-rounder lands in its protected vary, that’s not a really priceless commerce asset. On the opposite hand, if that lottery staff agrees to cut back the protections on that traded 2023 first-round choose for every year it doesn’t convey and finally makes it unprotected, it immediately turns into much more priceless as a commerce chip.

Because the Lakers aren’t actually in a position to take the latter method with their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks at this level, will probably be extraordinarily troublesome for them so as to add significant protections to these picks with out considerably lowering their worth.