How the Swans can snap Cats’ streak in GF

ULTIMATE GUIDE: AFL grand last 2022

The Swans are one in every of 4 groups to have overwhelmed the Cats this yr, having prevailed by 30 factors on the SCG in spherical two, the evening Lance Franklin breached the 1000-goal barrier.

According to former AFL coach Ross Lyon, there are a number of containers the Swans should tick to be able to topple the Cats on the largest stage of all.

METHOD OF BALL MOVEMENT

Both groups boast elite offensive and defence profiles, with Geelong rating second in factors for and the Swans fourth. The Cats are first in factors in opposition to whereas the Swans are fourth.

While their rankings offensively are comparable, the strategies are fairly totally different, as confirmed by the 2 groups’ kick-to-handball ratios and mark-play on percentages.

The Cats common 1.3 kicks per handball, whereas the Swans have a two-to-one kick-to-handball ratio.

Geelong is extra prepared to run the ball, enjoying on from a mark 32 per cent of the time, whereas the Swans accomplish that after simply 16 per cent of their marks.

“Really simply, they’re both really flying in attack and defence, but they’ve got different styles with the ball,” Lyon informed Nine’s Footy Classified this week.

“Geelong are a ‘go forward’ team now, last year they went back and sideways.

“They’re 1.3 kicks per handball whereas Sydney are two to at least one, they seem to be a kicking staff who controls the ball.

“They’re a bit more controlled and methodical and it will come in handy against Geelong’s roll-off defence.

“They (Geelong’s defenders) get again on you, they need lengthy, excessive entries (inside 50) after which they counter-punch. Last yr they’d slowly chip, however now they pull the set off.

“Sydney are not going to bomb it in when they’ve got time and space, they’re going to shift it off the line and lower their eyes.”

TACKLING PRESSURE

Sydney grades extraordinarily nicely in various key defensive acts, and it will must convey its defensive ferocity to the MCG if it is any hope of beating the Cats.

In Geelong’s 4 losses this yr, their opponents have had a strain issue of 185, whereas that quantity drops to 177 in video games Geelong has win. For comparability, the Swans have averaged a strain issue of 187 all through the season, which suggests they will have the ability to convey the warmth.

Sydney’s strain issue is one of the best within the league and it additionally ranks favourably in deal with differential (third), deal with effectivity (first), post-clearance strain issue (first) and forward-half strain issue (fifth).

Spend time dawdling on the soccer and the Swans tacklers will merely devour you. The grand last will solely heighten their starvation to get the footy again once they lose possession.

”This is why Sydney will have belief, they’re the No.1 pressure team in the comp,” Lyon stated.

“In all aspects they can pressure. If you’re John Longmire, you’re saying, ‘Don’t worry about what Collingwood did, this is what we can do’.

“The numbers say it: the groups which have introduced warmth to the Cats, the Cats are 50 per cent win-loss.”

TRANSITION GAME

Sydney isn’t the only team that will bring the pressure either, with the Cats able to turn it up with the best of them, particularly in their own forward half.

While the twin towers Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins have rightly received a lot of the plaudits, Geelong also possesses an elite group of small forwards in Gryan Miers, Tyson Stengle and Brad Close.

Lyon says the trio’s pressure will have to be at their best to stop the Swans’ lethal transition game off halfback.

Teams who don’t have sound forward-half pressure have been cut up all year by the Swans’ halfbacks and wingers. If you stand around as a forward, the likes of Nick Blakey and Errol Gulden will wreak havoc going the other way.

”No one bounces off halfback higher than the Swans,” Lyon said.

“If they will get their run and their kick going by means of the hall, they’re laborious to cease. But what do we all know concerning the Cats’ small forwards? Sure, they kick targets, however they’re the No.1 chase-down tacklers within the AFL with Close, Stengle and Miers.”

KEEPING STEWART BUSY

Tom Stewart is the AFL’s intercept king, and he’s able to wreak havoc in Geelong’s defensive 50 due to a smart quirk Chris Scott seems to deploy in matches.

Geelong’s preliminary final demolition job against Brisbane was the perfect example of this, as Scott rolled Mark Blicavs into the ruck in stoppages around the ground while moving first-choice ruckman Rhys Stanley behind the football.

Stanley went straight for the man Stewart would normally be tasked with defending, Brisbane’s Joe Daniher, which allowed Stewart to roam free almost as a goal-keeper.

Sydney’s forwards will have to be diligent in ensuring Stewart needs to focus on the defensive side of the football rather than simply launching counter-attacks.

“Horse (Swans coach John Longmire) has sometimes been extra conservative, Chris Scott will throw a little bit bit extra at you,” Lyon said of the two coaches’ approach.

It will be interesting to see what tactical wrinkle Scott throws Longmire’s way in the opening quarter or so, and how long it takes for the Swans to adjust.

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