Friday Four: Unheralded Samberg rising as a prime shutdown defenceman

The Friday Four is a set of ideas and data on some intriguing storylines from across the NHL. On deck this week is:

• Jets getting nice worth with Samberg’s extension
• Hurricanes guess on Blake
• Timmins will get a pleasant elevate
• Is this Grubauer’s final likelihood?

Despite not successful the Stanley Cup, the Winnipeg Jets nonetheless took house plenty of {hardware} final season. Winnipeg received the Presidents’ Trophy with the league’s finest file, and goaltender Connor Hellebuyck had a marketing campaign for the ages, capturing the Hart, Vezina and Jennings trophies. Hellebuyck was the principle purpose for Winnipeg’s success, however the Jets would let you know these are crew awards. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey and a forged of others make the Jets one of many deepest groups within the league from prime to backside. 

One identify that doesn’t get practically sufficient credit score for making the Jets the pressure that they’re is Dylan Samberg. Like most defensive defencemen, Samberg usually flies below the radar on the subject of reward due to his recreation being constructed extra round effectivity than flash. You received’t see Samberg on too many spotlight reels, nor will you see his identify seem on the scoresheet recurrently, however he’s turn into a useful piece of Winnipeg’s blue line and the three-year, $17.2 million extension he simply inked ought to be an absolute steal for the Jets.

Nobody performs more durable minutes for Winnipeg than Samberg. Paired with Neal Pionk for almost all of the 2024-25 marketing campaign, the duo performed 727 minutes collectively at even power and allowed simply 23 objectives towards, all whereas usually dealing with the opposition’s finest line on most nights. Winnipeg additionally had 90 extra scoring possibilities on the season than they allowed when the duo of Samberg and Pionk had been on the ice. Samberg finally completed within the top-10 within the NHL when it got here to plus/minus at plus-34. 

Playing extra of a shutdown position led to Samberg’s minutes additionally taking a large soar final yr. After averaging round quarter-hour per recreation in his first three seasons, the 26-year-old shot as much as greater than 21 minutes an evening in 2024-25. Not to say the Jets leaned on him closely when it got here to the penalty kill. No one performed extra shorthanded minutes per recreation on the Jets than Samberg final season, skating practically two and a half minutes whereas a person down. Dylan DeMelo was the one different Jet to crack the two-minute mark every evening. 

Perhaps most spectacular, although, is how Samberg’s absence impacted Winnipeg. Samberg missed 22 video games final yr as a result of damage and the Jets had been considerably worse with out him, going 11-9-2 when he wasn’t within the lineup. They had been basically a .500 hockey crew. However, within the 60 video games Samberg performed, Winnipeg went 45-13-2. Plus, it’s price noting that puck was going into the Jets’ web far more usually with out Samberg. Winnipeg allowed 4 or extra objectives 18 occasions in 2024-25 and 7 of these video games got here once they had been lacking Samberg. 

It’s such a luxurious for the Jets to have anyone like Samberg on their blue line, as he helps all the opposite items fall into place. Morrissey will get to keep away from extra of the heavy minutes and is flourishing offensively enjoying with DeMelo. Pionk has somebody subsequent to him he can belief and has now scored 10 objectives in two of the previous three seasons. Thanks to the emergence of Samberg, the Jets have a top-four that may rival anybody within the league, all locked in at affordable costs for the following few seasons. 

It’s at all times going to be laborious for a participant like Samberg to get the popularity he deserves, although that may very well be altering. The gold commonplace proper now for shutdown defencemen is Jaccob Slavin and he’s turn into so good that there have been even some stating there ought to be an award for the perfect defensive blue liner. Slavin’s play on the 4 Nations made everybody take discover and whereas Samberg isn’t on his degree fairly but, if his recreation continues to evolve, increasingly individuals are going to start out appreciating his play. He isn’t going to fly below the radar for much longer. 

It’s secure to say the Carolina Hurricanes have plenty of religion in Jackson Blake. 

The Canes inked Blake to an eight-year deal price $45 million final week, which incorporates some deferred cash to get the AAV down a bit. It’s an attention-grabbing guess by Carolina, who presently have a boatload of nice worth contracts. Nobody on the crew makes $10 million and with a rising cap, gamers like Sebastian Aho, Nik Ehlers, Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov, Logan Stankoven and Slavin are locked up for years at nice numbers. The solely contract you might actually quibble with is Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s, because the Canes might by no means get satisfactory worth out of that one, however you’d be hard-pressed to discover a crew with out not less than one questionable pact on the books. 

Blake’s deal might find yourself becoming a member of the aforementioned group of borderline steals. When the $5.1 million cap hit kicks in for the 2026-27 season, the cap might be properly over $100 million. That’s not a large quantity to soak up if Blake can turn into a constant 20-25 objective scorer. Also, the cap goes to maintain going up, and the second half of the deal might look even higher. 

That mentioned, there’s additionally the likelihood that this deal backfires due to the time period. Eight years is rather a lot to offer a participant that solely has 81 video games below his belt. Blake had 17 objectives final season, which is an honest scoring charge and there’s purpose to imagine he can higher that, however what number of gamers might ship that manufacturing enjoying with Aho and Jarvis for many of the season? It’s a really small pattern dimension and the funding is a little bit of a departure for the usually conservative Canes. 

There’s no purpose to imagine Blake’s deal received’t age properly at this level, although it nonetheless undeniably comes with some danger as a result of the soon-to-be 22-year-old doesn’t have a major observe file simply but. 

The Buffalo Sabres will hope to finish their post-season drought in 2025-26 with some new faces on the correct aspect of the blue line. Michael Kesselring is the most important addition after coming over from Utah in change for JJ Peterka after which there’s Conor Timmins, who was acquired by the Sabres in June from the Pittsburgh Penguins. 

Timmins, who has been traded twice since March, inked a two-year deal price $4.4 million final week with Buffalo. The $2.2 million AAV doubles his wage from the yr prior and although it’s not an enormous piece of the Sabres’ wage construction, it’s probably going to be one thing we’re going to should wrap our heads round going ahead with a rising wage cap. 

At first look, the deal appears somewhat wealthy for a 26-year-old defenceman now on his fifth crew who has actually solely performed shut to at least one full season within the NHL. Now there’s undoubtedly some offensive upside to Timmins’ recreation and he can transfer the puck pretty properly, however with a flat cap, he’d be hard-pressed to get something near $2 million. With the cap rising rapidly, although, the quantity appears extra affordable, particularly for the second yr of the deal. 

Next season, the cap jumps to $95.5 million, then the next yr it is going to hit $104 million, earlier than touchdown at a whopping $113.5 million in 2027-28. So, if we have a look at yr two of the Timmins deal, he’s solely going to account for two.1 per cent of Buffalo’s cap. That isn’t rather a lot within the grand scheme of issues and in the event you examine that to what 2.1 per cent of final yr’s $88 million cap can be, you’re round a $1.8 million contract. That appears much more affordable for Timmins, however you’ll be able to swallow the additional $400,000 in the event you’re the Sabres since you recognize the cap is climbing. 

With a flat cap, we had been used to seeing skaters preventing for an on a regular basis spot within the lineup usually making someplace between the league minimal and 1,000,000 bucks, which is why Timmins’ deal raised an eyebrow or two when it was introduced. Now we’ll probably see extra of those perceived slight overpays going ahead for gamers within the decrease half of rosters. It’s going to be the brand new regular. 

Philipp Grubauer is operating out of possibilities with the Seattle Kraken. In 4 years with the Kraken, Grubauer has by no means completed with a save proportion of .900 or higher and issues bottomed out this previous season when he ended up with a mark of .875. 

Those are actually not the numbers Seattle anticipated once they signed Grubauer to a six-year take care of nearly $6 million yearly again in 2021. The 33-year-old was stellar previous to becoming a member of the Kraken however he hasn’t been capable of replicate that in Seattle and has now been handed on the depth chart by Joey Daccord. What makes his play so regarding is the truth that Daccord has carried out fairly properly behind the Kraken regardless of not having the pedigree or expertise of Grubauer. Granted, Seattle was a bottom-10 crew in 2024-25 when it got here to high-danger possibilities allowed, however Daccord thrived whereas Grubauer continued to wrestle. 

The Kraken might’ve opted to go the buyout route with Grubauer this low season however determined to offer him one other likelihood. Perhaps they’re hoping he can recapture the magic of his 2023 post-season run, the place Seattle upset the Colorado A-Z Eventz within the opening spherical, giving them their solely playoff sequence win in franchise historical past. Grubauer was sensational over the seven video games, sporting a .926 save proportion whereas holding the potent A-Z Eventz offence in test. 

Grubauer hasn’t managed to get wherever near that degree since and it’s going to be laborious for the Kraken to justify protecting him on the roster with that wage going ahead in the event that they hope to get again into the playoff image. Their cap state of affairs is ok now, however paying practically $6 million for a backup isn’t a clever technique and finally they’ll need to use the area for different positional wants. The 2025-26 marketing campaign may very well be Grubauer’s final likelihood to show he deserves to stay on the Kraken.