Bold NBA predictions for 2026: West arms race, growth and a PG carousel

There has been a faint air of inevitability within the NBA over the previous couple of months. While the league isn’t predictable, a primary championship for the Oklahoma City Thunder — coupled with a traditionally robust begin to 2025-26 and a humiliation of draft belongings to proceed constructing with — created a spectre of impending dynasty.

Which is okay. Fun, even. It’s been years since we noticed a champion repeat within the NBA, and having a high heel for the following wave of contenders to attempt to topple is Booking 101. The league is in an important place, mid-transition between eras of superstars and deep into the most recent CBA, and even the heaviest of favourites are solely a “blocked by James!” away from the dialog turning shortly.

The 2025-26 season could not play out the way it feels in the present day, or the way it felt two weeks in the past when the Thunder have been at a single loss. We’re by no means going to see issues clearly 12 months upfront. What we are able to do, although, is get somewhat daring as a substitute of going chalk with our annual predictions.

Bold means you gained’t hit on a lot of them, however the place’s the enjoyable in making bland-yet-sure predictions? What follows are a couple of swings at storylines that would emerge in basketball in 2026.

1. The Thunder do repeat, however the Western Conference playoffs present that there’s a troublesome path to ‘dynasty’

Look, Oklahoma City is simply that good proper now. Even after dropping a few video games to West playoff groups, they’re threatening data for regular-season document, scoring margin, defensive effectiveness, and extra. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in a dogfight with Nikola Jokic for the MVP award once more, and is perhaps the hardest one-on-one examine within the league. They are deep — their wild begin has include vital time missed for rotation gamers — and so they have the flexibility so as to add mid-season, even when Sam Presti has been cautious in that regard.

All advised, I can’t keep in mind ever seeing a workforce as a decide ‘em for the championship in late December. It would be a moderate surprise if the Thunder weren’t the primary workforce to repeat as champions for the reason that 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.

It will, within the second, really feel daunting, with a younger, cap-flexible, asset-rich workforce ascending and repeating.

It is not going to, nevertheless, really feel just like the 2026-27 champion is a certainty. The San Antonio Spurs are already beginning to appear to be one other Team of the Future, with their timeline feeling nearer and nearer with every passing sport from Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and the remainder. Jokic is just not going wherever within the subsequent few years, Jamal Murray continues to be in his prime and looking out pretty much as good as ever, and the Nuggets will stay a contender. The Rockets are enormous, and outdoors of Kevin Durant, younger sufficient to mission at this stage for a while in the event that they proceed to nail issues on the margins. The checklist goes on.

The high of the Western Conference is all the time a gauntlet, and it’s by no means projected as deeper and harder on the high shifting ahead. Someone could have a participant pop, a commerce resonate, or a stylistic counter to OKC emerge, sufficient to place stress on the Thunder to in some way proceed nailing virtually each transfer.

Sub-prediction: The Knicks win the East.

2. Offensive rebounds are probably the most talked-about stat within the playoffs

Once we get previous how nice the West is and the way huge open the East appears (exterior of New York, a transparent favorite at this level), the post-season dialog will deal with two key strategic components which are quietly defining the day-to-day of the season up to now.

The first is crashing the glass, which is pretty simple. After a decade going the opposite means, offensive rebounding is again en vogue, with the league — and some groups, specifically the Rockets — threatening to set new league data for second possibilities.

This is borne of some issues, together with analytics (the worth of a second likelihood is kind of excessive, and workforce success fee when crashing a number of gamers is larger than standard knowledge could have prompt), transition defensive technique (groups are extra prepared to cross-match getting again, coping with mismatches or switching again later in a possession), and extra threes resulting in extra lengthy rebounds groups can assault. Not each workforce has embraced it, however with the league seeming to have reached the restrict of “shoot even more threes” as a way of getting extra environment friendly on offence, many coaches have embraced and even challenged the perceived trade-off between offensive rebounding and transition defence.

Particularly of curiosity is that that is one space the Thunder haven’t gotten an edge but. They set a league document for taking pictures possession differential final yr due to their turnover edge and strong defensive rebounding, however they roughly punt on the offensive glass, offering a small window {that a} workforce like Houston may be capable of shrink the hole in a collection.

Sub-prediction: “Peel switching” is a very fashionable tactical buzzword, as defences look to maintain up with document scoring and rethink some standard beliefs about the place and when you’ll be able to assistance on the courtroom.

3. The NBA broadcasts plans to develop to 32 groups, with Seattle and Las Vegas on board

This is generally a wager that Adam Silver breaks after being requested in a 412^th consecutive press convention and exasperatedly responds, “Fine, you can have expansion!”

Expansion has made sense in some methods for the league for a while. The expertise pool is there, they’ve two (if no more) apparent markets, it will increase the stock of video games they will promote, and from a media and leisure perspective, it’s one thing different leagues have gotten good runway out of. One of the widespread counterarguments is usually that it splits a really giant income pie 32 methods as a substitute of 30, however latest franchise gross sales have set a baseline that ought to permit the league to cost pretty giant growth charges, serving to easy that out.

Sub-prediction: Raptors assistant coach Jama Mahlalela is finally employed as the top coach of one of many growth groups.

4. All of those level guards accessible don’t actually transfer on the deadline; July turns into a serious level guard carousel

Take a learn round pre-deadline NBA reporting and it appears like each workforce is buying their level guard, buying for a degree guard, or no less than prepared to hear. Trae Young doesn’t have an extension but and could possibly be headed to unrestricted free company. Ja Morant’s state of affairs in Memphis is contentious, to say the least. LaMelo Ball’s title has been on the market. And so on.

The guess right here is that every one that buzz is simply buzz for February. Those are main trades, in some instances franchise-altering ones. This is the NBA, in fact, so these occur even when we don’t have buzz forward of time, however the level guard place, particularly, is one which requires match, chemistry, and typically system reorientation. Combine that with the truth that trades of top-salaried gamers are a lot simpler in the summertime, when groups have extra wage cap flexibility, and a serious shakeup on the level needs to be a lot smoother then.

Sub-prediction: Young enters free company and winds up being signed-and-traded as a part of a large, multi-team, Shawn Marion/Hedo Turkoglu-like deal.

This would have been a gentle take only a few weeks in the past, however Flagg has actually come on of late, and the Mavericks are beginning to win some video games. Knueppel gained’t have workforce wins going for him — that’s an unfair barometer for any rookie — and he’ll need to climb uphill in opposition to the truth that Flagg was the No. 1 decide and presumptive ROY. It gained’t be straightforward, and Flagg is actually good already.

So what does Knueppel need to do? Well, he’s averaging virtually 20 factors per sport on outstanding effectivity for a reasonably high-usage rookie. This is extra on his plate than virtually anybody anticipated, and there’s been subsequent to no studying curve. If he have been simply scorching from three, you could possibly dismiss a number of the begin, however Knueppel can end on the rim, his passing may be very superior for a rookie wing, and he brings a stage of physicality that permits him to be useful on the glass and a non-zero on defence.

Even if this one finally ends up incorrect, the Hornets need to be thrilled with their No. 4 decide and the way a couple of of their younger items have seemed collectively early on. Things lastly don’t really feel as bleak in Charlotte.

Sub-prediction: It’s Harper, not Flagg or Kneuppel, who has the perfect sophomore yr.

6. The Dunk Contest is the perfect it’s been since Toronto in 2016

Charlie Brown. A soccer. Lucy. Sue me, I stay a dunk contest believer.

The league has ample enjoyable, younger dunkers like Shaedon Sharpe and VJ Edgecombe who may use the occasion as a platform for reputation. You may throw the Thompson twins in opposition to one another. I don’t actually imagine the veteran stars who’ve teased collaborating, however Morant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Dunking Rock-Austin of Zach LaVine and Aaron Gordon have all accomplished simply that. Wemby may dunk from the place you’re sitting proper now.

I get it. You’ve bit on the pump faux earlier than. So many dunks have been accomplished, there have been too many gimmicks, and the GOAT G League dunker is thrashing all of the full-time NBA guys. There’s an excessive amount of expertise to not stumble into an important dunk-off as soon as each few years, and this would be the one.

Sub-prediction: I’m by no means allowed to do All-Star week exhibits once more if this one is incorrect.

7. The Warriors commerce Draymond Green. Jonathan Kuminga is the extra apparent selection, however the place’s the daring (or enjoyable) in that?

8. Cam Boozer is chosen forward of Darryn Peterson. Both are nice; passing on Peterson is a mistake.

9. A yr or two early: The NBA investing in a European league additional erodes the G League expertise pool, in a means the league finally wants to deal with.

10. Not significantly daring to shut: The Raptors make the playoffs, lose within the first spherical, and commerce no less than one starter in July.