Early evaluation: What are this 12 months’s Maple Leafs?

On Monday’s version of Real Kyper and Bourne, when the Toronto Maple Leafs had been recent off a disheartening 4-1 Saturday loss to the New York Islanders, I made a remark to Kyper that I hoped can be performed again for me later within the season, however for optimistic causes: I stated that I believed this could be the low level of Toronto’s season. That at 3-4-2, and useless final within the Atlantic, my neighbour who stated this was “another lost season” might have been overreacting.

Well “talent” largely. The Leafs have loads of it. This league goes in suits and begins with its depth ranges throughout the season, however out of the gates everybody nonetheless has an opportunity, everyone seems to be alive. You get under-talented groups enjoying motivated, hopeful hockey. You get younger gamers nonetheless scrapping to make the roster, veterans jockeying for the great linemates and particular groups spots and ice time. You get new and outdated coaches alike pouring via video and leaning on their guys to get off to a great begin. 

Sometimes in hockey under-talented groups will be in the correct locations and may grind higher groups to shut video games, so anybody can win any night time. The Leafs performed to one-goal finishes in seven of their first eight video games.

The drawback for these groups punching above their weight is that it isn’t sustainable. Call-ups from the AHL can look nice for an evening, however hardly ever a whole season. That’s the small-scale model of what I’m speaking about. As the 12 months goes on and groups settle in, they might take their foot 5 per cent off the fuel. They journey, they get sick, they get harm they usually get drained, so there’s quite a lot of hockey from now till March the place the groups with extra expertise simply discover a strategy to make a couple of extra performs and win video games on that alone.

As far as how this pertains to the Leafs, they’ve a deeper roster of playmaking expertise than they did final 12 months, and in reality have extra of that than about half the league.

On Tuesday night time in opposition to Columbus, the Leafs acquired their first win this season in opposition to an opponent they simply have extra expertise than, and that expertise confirmed up. The Blue Jackets have a star defenceman in Zach Werenski, however their finest ahead (Adam Fantilli) did not crack Sportsnet’s “50 best players” heading into the 2026-27 season.

Auston Matthews had an off-the-cuff one-and-one for 2 extra factors (he is as much as second within the league with 18 in 11 video games), as did William Nylander. Toronto’s complementary ability gamers (Easton Cowan, Jack Roslovic, Kirill Marchenko, Gavin McKenna) had a great night time and the sport was successfully over with half-hour nonetheless to play.

This is to not say the Leafs are wonderful, however it’s clear they’re greater than a sub-.500 roster (so long as it stays largely wholesome), and I count on them to be within the playoff combat as much as the final week. 

So after 11 video games, that’s what I feel I find out about this Leafs group: they’re going to ability their strategy to some wins. From there, let’s speak about 4 different issues about this group, and we’ll begin to get a way of what we’re set to observe as they push to return to the post-season this 12 months.

1. Without Tanev, the defence corps is a authentic drawback

That’s the great strategy to phrase it, because the D-corps with Tanev isn’t precisely nice both. For it to be good this 12 months the Leafs wanted:

Of these, they’ve acquired Raddysh supplying good play in large minutes, and you may argue Rielly has been barely higher after he is put up two good video games in a row. 

But Tanev acquired harm, and each McCabe and OEL — who’ve taken a beating the previous couple seasons — look a step behind. Suddenly Troy Stecher is arguably considered one of their most vital defencemen — and he’s been nice — which is certainly some form of sentence. 

The Leafs’ possession numbers will get buried if they will’t break the puck out of their zone, and their goalies’ lives will probably be hell if they will’t field out in entrance. Both of this stuff are points proper now.

If I gave you the selection of this Leafs blue line or another within the Eastern Conference, there usually are not many groups you wouldn’t instantly swap with. If you’ve acquired a blue line that ranks within the backside few, life will get actually arduous. There’s speak about John Chayka making a commerce or two to assist it out, and if the Leafs are going to make the playoffs, it would hinge on that taking place before later.

Heaven assist them if McCabe’s harm isn’t a fast repair.

2. Their particular groups success (top-five PP, No. 1 PK) is mostly sustainable

Through 11 video games and 38 minor penalties, the Leafs are even on the penalty kill. One aim in opposition to, one aim for. That is clearly not what’s sustainable right here.

That stated, they do legitimately have the horses to have a top-10 (perhaps top-five?) penalty kill within the league, with new additions Colton Sissons, Nick Paul, Brandon Duhaime and Teddy Blueger. Matthews can kill too, they usually’re utilizing Easton Cowan in that position, in addition to Nylander within the closing 30 seconds when the opposition will get sleepy (which has led to probabilities for Toronto).

Stecher, McCabe, OEL, these defencemen are naturally good PK guys, even when they aren’t electrical at 5-on-5. Sergei Bobrovsky nonetheless strikes nicely laterally, and generally is a large a part of it too. They will be good right here.

On the facility play they’re as loaded as any group within the NHL. All 5 of their PP1 guys are authentic weapons, and there are nonetheless extra sitting on the bench (significantly when John Tavares returns and the facility play plan for Gavin McKenna will get murky). 

If they do what they’ve been doing to this point — rotating all through the 5 spots on the 1-3-1 and never getting stagnant — they’ll be capable to make the most of damaged performs and seams in addition to any unit within the league. They must be a top-10 energy play with none situation. 

3. Their forwards aren’t the “inside” varieties

One offensive concern is that the Leafs haven’t really created as a lot to the within as you’d wish to see to name their offensive play “sustainable.” They’re means higher at producing offensive zone time than final season, however quite a lot of it will get pinned to the skin partitions. The Islanders didn’t allow them to get in, in order that they had been content material to remain exterior. 

What meaning is you most likely want at the least one of many “inside” varieties on every line. Paul, Tavares (when wholesome), Sissons, Duhaime and Blueger match this mould, however exterior of them Toronto primarily has perimeter varieties. Matthews can get inside, however received’t park and keep there in a means that forces the defence to the online, and thus opens up room to the skin. He’s like a hybrid in that he flies via the net-front, however retains transferring.

This could also be random after a day the place Roslovic made an incredible move to Matthews and seemed good, however it is perhaps enjoyable to see Matthews with some combine like McKenna and Paul. Let Paul be large on the web and forecheck, whereas McKenna and Matthews do their factor. 

It’s no coincidence that each “perfect line” I attempt to make proper now includes Paul, who’s been an enormous shiny spot for Toronto to date. Here are some insane traces I put collectively (when wholesome), as a result of making traces is enjoyable:

McKenna – Matthews – Paul
Marchenko – Sissons – Nylander
Cowan – Tavares – Roslovic
Duhaime – Blueger – MacEwen

Not positive about that third line, however Tavares with Marchenko/Nylander is a defensive drawback. 

One extra random word: I’ve actually like Zack MacEwen, who’s a superbly cromulent fourth line heavy/power man. He must be on the NHL roster all 12 months as their 13^th ahead when wholesome.

4. The goaltending must be about league common 

By all-strengths save proportion the Leafs sit above common at 10^th, which is roughly on the higher finish of what must be anticipated. But Bobrovsky appears to be like wholesome and constant, giving up about one “hmm maybe he could’ve had that” aim per recreation, whereas making a pair “I’m not sure how many other guys would save that” saves per recreation. 

Sportlogiq has Bobrovsky 10^th in objectives saved above anticipated (saving about three objectives greater than a league-average goalie can be anticipated to), and 15^th in the identical stat as a “per game” charge. Stolarz can also be again on the correct aspect of the numbers, a whisper higher than common.

Something I don’t know:

1. What Hiller goes to be like as a coach

As the group searches for its identification, it’s additionally not but clear what Hiller’s will probably be as a coach. The promise going into the 12 months was to higher embrace offence, they usually’ve finished that, although I additionally assume a giant a part of the explanation why is as a result of the roster is simply extra gifted.

The dealing with of McKenna has been notable and well-discussed. When Toronto was up 5-1 Tuesday night time the rookie acquired two shifts within the second interval, and simply two within the third till the ultimate couple of minutes when it was clear the sport was over so he acquired out a couple of occasions within the closing minutes. These look like good moments to get him concerned, and to realize expertise.

But in any other case I really feel like Hiller’s finished a great job with the traces and defence pairs. I really like the transfer so as to add Nylander and Cowan on the finish of penalty kills. I like how the goalies have been dealt with. 

I feel he’s doing a nice job to this point, however because the group searches for its strengths, Hiller’s looking out too. There’s loads of hope they might discover it collectively, as they’ve had each wins and adversity already within the early going. 

Roster adjustments might assist issues but, however this group was basically a bunch of strangers a month in the past, and it’s clear they have already got the potential to be a handful for his or her opposition on any given night time.