Analyzing Blue Jays’ pitching pipeline and its progress

TORONTO – Justin Lehr joined the Toronto Blue Jays as minor-league pitching director two years in the past and instantly made strike-throwing and depend leverage a precedence within the group’s improvement of younger arms. 

“With the way technology is on pitch design and the biomech stuff, it can become kind of a trap where you’re getting the cart in front of the horse,” he defined throughout a weekend go to with the big-league membership. “The basis of pitching is all the time going to be being in good counts, so simply being actually considerate about attacking that earlier than we get into actually technical stuff and begin laying that on. 

“Not that we’re not technical from the outset, because obviously we’re analyzing data,” he continued, “but it’s tough to make the right adjustments if guys aren’t in good counts.”

Horse again in entrance of the cart, the outcomes of the change are already seen on the big-league degree, with 285.1 of the 1,342 innings the Blue Jays have logged to date this season coming from pitchers drafted and/or developed within the system.  At 21 per cent, that’s a large leap from final yr’s 14.7 per cent (212 of 1,438 innings) and 2024’s 15 per cent (213 of 1,427.1) and the restoration of a pitching pipeline has been very important on this injury-marred yr.

Seven Blue Jays pitchers debuted this season, with solely Rule 5 choose Spencer Miles and minor-league free agent Tanner Andrews coming from exterior the group. Chad Dallas, Ricky Tiedemann and C.J. Van Eyk have all supplied worthwhile up-and-down innings to help the pitching employees, as did lefty Adam Macko earlier than he was traded on the deadline. Hayden Juenger made two appearances earlier than he acquired traded whereas Lazaro Estrada, who debuted final yr, coated 13 innings over eight outings, gathering a save in opposition to the Philadelphia Phillies on a day the bullpen was depleted. 

In years previous, the Blue Jays didn’t have that layer of depth to cowl gaps, and it’s helped them keep afloat amid the relentless roster churn.

“I’m really proud of the guys that have come to the big-leagues and helped us compete and win baseball games,” mentioned Lehr. “No matter what their ceiling is, the consistency of guys coming up here and doing a good job is great.”

Younger pitchers within the system made progress, too, with Lehr calling prospects Johnny King, Dasan Hill and Daniel Guerra “the future of our organization,” whereas noting that “they’re coming on strong.”

With just one week of triple-A video games remaining within the season, right here’s a have a look at a few of the group’s high pitching prospects:

Ricky Tiedemann – The 24-year-old made his long-anticipated debut final month after reconstructive elbow surgical procedure in July 2024 halted his fast ascent to the majors. Still, a spring bout of elbow soreness slowed his progress and he continues to wish restoration days round his outings out of the bullpen, however the upside stays clear.

“It’s really just been the health that’s held him back, because as you saw, the stuff plays in the big-leagues,” mentioned Lehr. “It’s not a really overly complicated game plan – it’s big stuff, it’s a really good feel for the sweeper, it’s a great changeup. He’s platoon-neutral so he can really clog up some high-leverage innings. It’s just building up the tolerance to pitch more frequently, which I think next year is his year to really pile on more workload. But right now he’s doing an excellent job. … I don’t know what the more likely outcome (between starter and reliever) is as he builds more work. He’s still very young with a platoon-neutral arsenal, so I don’t rule out that he could start. It just probably wasn’t going to work this year to build him up that much and get something out of him for the big-league team. I haven’t really decided what he is other than a really good pitcher that can be used in any role. But obviously the starting role is going to take a little more time to build up.”

Gage Stanifer – The hard-throwing 22-year-old struck out 133 batters in 97 innings over 28 outings, 19 begins, at double-A New Hampshire and is understanding of the bullpen to shut out the season with Buffalo. Honing his command and limiting walks – he issued 64 of them with the Fisher Cats – stays a precedence, with Lehr saying that’s “improving.”

“He’s also taking on this new bullpen role at the end of the year and seems pretty comfortable in that,” continued Lehr. “For Gage, it’s just finding consistency of mindset and controlling the game more internally. He’s got really, really good weapons, so honing in on that winner mindset and finding consistency in counts, because when he is ahead in counts, he is pretty dominant. Out of the bullpen, the arsenal is the same. He’s a three-pitch guy, fastball/slider/split. Just trying to see how he acclimates to that role if it becomes a real option. Certainly not giving up on the starter capacity because there’s only so many guys that can hold big velo low for 100 pitches and he can do that. But late in the year with where his workload was, it just seemed like a really good opportunity to get him in triple-A using the big-league ball and see how he responds to something different.”

Daniel Guerra – The 22-year-old righty made a serious leap at high-A Vancouver, logging 59 innings over 14 begins whereas putting out 78 and was moved as much as New Hampshire and now Buffalo, understanding of the bullpen, to shut out the yr. 

“He’s attention-grabbing in that, once I noticed him final October, there was undoubtedly one thing very obtrusive about his throw mechanics that was off, which I assumed was actually going to carry him again,” mentioned Lehr. “Addressing the throw mechanics became a really huge win for development. Having him in Buffalo right now is a big deal.”

Jake Bloss – The 25-year-old righty returned from final yr’s reconstructive elbow surgical procedure to make 5 begins at Buffalo, flashing mid-to-upper 90s velo even with combined outcomes, earlier than a teres main damage prematurely ended his season.  He’s headed to the Arizona Fall League to “just get work and continue refining his game,” mentioned Lehr. “Obviously there was a lot optimism after the Tommy John because the stuff was in a really, really good spot and then obviously had another setback. So recreating some work and making sure that he goes into the off-season with at least some comfortability that he can compete at a high level. … We probably attributed (the mixed results) to fairly normal stuff coming back from surgery in the first year. Usually guys are at their best when they’re in their second year, so the flashes were really exciting. The fastball, the big velo he was featuring, throwing the hard slider. Unfortunately got cut a little short and hopefully he’s back to it.”

Johnny King – The electric-armed, 20-year-old lefty dominated the Northwest League, the place he was 4.1 years youthful than the typical age for pitchers, with 112 strikeouts over 84 innings in 21 begins and completed the season with 5 begins at double-A, posting a 2.95 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 21.1 frames. Cutting down a stroll charge of 5.3 per 9 innings by “honing the command of the fastball and the curveball” stays a precedence, together with working in a changeup he typically didn’t want on the decrease ranges.

“The changeup for his age is in a pretty darn good place – it’ll definitely flash really good shape and performance,” mentioned Lehr. “He’s not afraid to try and throw it to strike guys out, which is really nice. It’s just been a third priority in that he’s a young kid, establishing that he can be good with the primary pitches and throws. But by the time he arrives at the major-league level, he’ll have it and it’ll be a huge weapon for him.”

Nolan Perry – Another prospect working again from Tommy John surgical procedure in 2024, the 23-year-old right-hander tore via three ranges to succeed in double-Some time additionally representing the Blue Jays on the Futures Game. He struck out a mixed 117 in 82.2 innings throughout 21 video games, 20 begins, whereas strolling simply 32, positioning himself to doubtlessly consider 2027.

“Ever since he’s come back from the rehab process, and I don’t want to put any bad luck on him, it’s just been easy to see him go perform and show his gifts in terms of having really strong tools,” mentioned Lehr. “It’s just an innate feel to pitch, which is really hard to teach and develop. He seems very unassuming, but the internal fire’s there. Highly competitive. And his gift is that he can throw really any pitch at any time, and they’re all pretty damn good.”

Danny Thompson – The 24-year-old righty, an eighth-round choose a yr in the past, impressed in a brief stint with low-A Dunedin in 2025 earlier than leaping into the rotations at Vancouver and New Hampshire, logging 100.1 innings over 24 video games, 20 begins, with 124 strikeouts in opposition to 40 walks. Driving his progress is “a really elite fastball that comes in pretty flat,” mentioned Lehr.

“He throws hard. He’s got the sweeping-shape slider, changeup. He’s gritty, a really tough kid,” he continued. “He probably has a chip on his shoulder that he was overlooked. In some ways I’m very surprised at how far he’s taken it, and in some ways I’m not, because when you meet him, you realize this guy is incredibly, incredibly competitive and he has a really nice carrying fastball. For our org, he probably throws more fastballs than most. Being low to the ground (at six feet), having a fastball that has some carry just gets him outside of the average plane for hitters, so he has some approach advantages and it’s tough to train for that. He’s really strong, too. It’s not a big frame, but man, that guy is really strong.”

High-A Vancouver Canadians

Dasan Hill – The 20-year-old righty, the central piece getting back from Minnesota within the Jeff Hoffman deal, received over Blue Jays improvement employees instantly whereas serving to the Canadians win a Northwest League championship. Between the 2 programs, he struck out 98 batters in 61.1 innings over 21 begins whereas permitting solely two dwelling runs, however walked 44.

“I think he’s phenomenal,” mentioned Lehr. “Really elite pitcher mind, smart, wants to be challenged in areas and I’ve learned very quickly he absolutely despises when guys put the ball in play. We’re working on the efficiency part of his game, which I think has been much better, but I like the mindset that he just doesn’t like it when guys hit the ball.”

Carson Messina – The 20-year-old righty missed most of final season with elbow points however confirmed massive stuff 57.1 innings over 19 video games within the Complex League and Dunedin, putting out 68 batters whereas strolling 41. “In my first camp, I noticed him throw his first stay BP and he was like 95 to 98. I walked over to the coaches and I’m like, ‘Who is this kid throwing 98 looking like he’s been doing it forever?’ Then he had a hiccup with the well being and we did not see him for a very long time,” mentioned Lehr. “This year he made so much progress in the way he trains between starts so that he could get to the high-intent throws more often. That’s really been a learning curve for him. Stuff is good, curveball’s great, the velo’s great. He’s a physical kid, already. For him, it’s just those routines that high-school kids who come into pro ball don’t have yet to sustain a six, seven-month season. A lot of gains there this year. I’m really proud of him.”

Cole Carlon – Selected 39^th total this summer season, the six-foot-five lefty was shut down after signing having already transitioned to the rotation and logged 83.2 innings for Arizona State. His overpowering repertoire offers him an opportunity to maneuver via the system rapidly subsequent season. “I really love the upside of this kid,” mentioned Lehr. “It’s interesting that he deployed kind of a slider-first mentality in the league he was in, given how offensive it was. For us, it’s just rounding out the usage and the deployment of what are really good pitches. He’s shown the ability to land the curveball and he throws a really good slider and the changeup lands, as well. So even though he didn’t deploy all those pitches in college, we know they’re in there and so I think his ceiling is incredibly high.”