Blue Jays commerce All-Star OF to Mariners for breakout setup man

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto wasted little time making his first large splash on the commerce market this offseason. The Mariners introduced Wednesday that they acquired All-Star proper fielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays in trade for setup man Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko.

Hernandez, who turned 30 a month in the past, will give the Mariners a heart-of-the-order slugger who’s posted a stout .283/.333/.519 batting line with 73 residence runs and 71 doubles by 1,337 plate appearances over the previous three seasons. Hernandez has been a Statcast darling because the time of his large league debut, repeatedly posting top-of-the-scale exit velocity and hard-hit charges; that was no completely different in 2022, when Statcast ranked him within the 94th percentile or higher in hard-hit charge, common exit velocity, max exit velocity, barrel charge and anticipated slugging share.

That penchant for elite contact and plus energy output from Hernandez comes at one thing of a value. While he’s curbed his once-sky-high strikeout totals to an extent, Hernandez nonetheless fanned in 28.4% of his plate appearances final season. He bought the strikeout charge all the best way right down to 24.9% in 2021, so there’s maybe hope for some additional beneficial properties, however as of proper now that quantity is an outlier with regard to the remainder of his profession. His stroll charge, in the meantime, has steadily clocked in between six and 7 p.c over the previous few seasons — a superb bit shy of league common.

Beyond the large energy, Hernandez possesses misleading pace. He’s solely tallied 24 steals (in 32 tries) over the previous three seasons, together with simply six in 2022, however Hernandez’s dash pace ranks within the 84th percentile of MLB gamers, per Statcast. With barely bigger bases anticipated to maybe spur a bit extra operating in 2023, Hernandez is among the many many gamers who might conceivably start to take off with a bit extra frequency. Hernandez can also be recognized for having one of many sport’s strongest throwing arms. Despite that pace and arm power, nevertheless, he attracts persistently below-average grades for his glovework in proper subject; Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have pegged him as a adverse defender in every of the previous 4 seasons. In 2022, he tallied minus-3 DRS, minus-5 OAA and a minus-3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Even if his pace and arm don’t translate to plus proper subject protection, Hernandez has been a effectively above-average all-around participant lately when trying on the sum of his components. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference peg him proper at eight wins above alternative in his previous 324 video games. Those 324 video games have come throughout three seasons, although one was the shortened 2020 marketing campaign. Generally talking, Hernandez has prevented main accidents. He missed three weeks this season attributable to an indirect pressure and was sidelined in 2021 by a optimistic COVID check (plus three video games on the paternity record). Overall, nevertheless, he’s performed in 84.3% of his group’s attainable video games since 2020.

Barring an extension, Hernandez will likely be a one-year rental for the Mariners — and a comparatively dear one, at that. Hernandez will attain six years of service time in 2023 and develop into a free agent subsequent winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz tasks a large $14.1M wage for him this season.

Dipoto mentioned eventually week’s GM conferences that he sought not less than one outfield improve this winter, if not two. Hernandez ought to slot in to proper subject alongside heart fielder and AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez, however his presence in Seattle creates some further questions. The membership opted to not make a qualifying provide to Mitch Haniger, for example, and whereas Hernandez’s acquisition doesn’t squarely rule out Haniger returning to rotate by the outfield corners and DH, Wednesday’s commerce inherently makes a reunion really feel much less doubtless.

The Mariners must decide whether or not they’re comfy with a mixture of former high prospects Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis and Taylor Trammell in left subject. Jesse Winker is one other left subject/DH possibility, although as of Tuesday, the Mariners had been discussing commerce packages involving Winker. It’s straightforward sufficient to check that group, with some assist from utilitymen Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty, holding down the fort within the corners and at DH, however additional additions shouldn’t be dominated out.

The Mariners, in any case, are squarely in win-now mode. Even with Hernandez aboard, they’ve ample payroll capability; buying Hernandez is an approximate $12.7M web add to the payroll, as Swanson had been projected by Swartz to be paid $1.4M. They’re projected by Roster Resource for a $143.5M payroll following the swap, and that’s a methods shy of the $162M peak they trotted out in 2018. A return to the playoffs has doubtless boosted income a bit, and MLB has agreed to varied profitable streaming offers that afford every group appreciable annual payouts within the 5 years since that beforehand established file payroll.

Turning to the Blue Jays’ aspect of the deal, they’ll concurrently add a much-needed energy arm to the bullpen and shed that aforementioned (and approximate) $12.7M in payroll. They’re nonetheless projected for what could be a franchise-record Opening Day payroll within the $176M vary, however the commerce offers them some extra flexibility whereas including an important arm to the reduction combine. Swanson, initially acquired by the Mariners within the commerce that despatched James Paxton to the Yankees, struggled as a starter however has damaged out as a powerhouse within the Seattle bullpen.

The 3.31 ERA, 24.3% strikeout charge and 6.9% stroll charge Swanson logged in 35 1/3 innings in the course of the 2021 season had been a step in that course, however it wasn’t till this previous season that he turned a dominant late-inning drive. Swanson’s 2022 marketing campaign resulted in 53 2/3 innings of 1.68 ERA ball with a large 34% strikeout charge towards only a 4.9% stroll charge. In all, since establishing himself in 2021, Swanson owns a 2.33 ERA in 89 innings of reduction — a mark that’s largely supported by fielding-independent metrics (2.59 FIP, 2.87 SIERA).

Swanson is an excessive fly-ball pitcher, so some might have concern about his transition from a pitcher-friendly setting at T-Mobile Park to the homer-happy confines of Toronto’s Rogers Centre, however the truth is that only a few of the fly-balls he yields are hit with authority. Among the 385 pitchers with not less than 80 innings over the previous two seasons, Swanson has induced infield pop-ups on the sixth-best charge in MLB.

Swanson was additionally a batted-ball deity on the mound in 2022, rating close to the highest of the league when it comes to common exit velocity (98th percentile), hard-hit charge (96th), anticipated ERA and wOBA (97th), anticipated slugging share (94th), general strikeout charge (96th) and opponents’ chase charge on pitches off the plate (93rd). He might not be a family title, however for the 2022 season not less than, Swanson can lay declare to legitimately being one in all MLB’s most dominant relievers.

Unlike Hernandez, who’ll be a free agent subsequent winter, Swanson is a comparatively long-term piece for the Blue Jays. With three-plus years of main league service time below his belt, he’s controllable by the 2025 season, and since his breakout was of the “late blooming” selection, he didn’t construct up the kind of lengthy monitor file that may reward him handsomely in his first journey by the arbitration course of. The Jays will virtually actually pay Swanson much less over over the following three seasons than they’d have paid Hernandez in 2023 alone.

It’s the identical timeline to free company shared by Toronto nearer Jordan Romano, who’s additionally managed by 2025. Swanson figures to function the first setup choice to Romano, although he’ll be joined by veterans Yimi Garcia, Anthony Bass, Adam Cimber and Tim Mayza in what already seems like a deeper and extra formidable reduction corps.

Also heading to Toronto within the commerce is the left-handed Macko, a major addition to the group’s prospect base. Baseball America and FanGraphs each rated the 21-year-old as Seattle’s eighth-best prospect, touting his curveball as wherever from a plus pitch (60-grade, FanGraphs) to a plus-plus (70, Baseball America) providing on the 20-80 scale. His fastball is one other above-average providing, climbing as excessive as 98 mph, and his slider offers him the potential for a 3rd common or higher pitch.

Injuries — most notably a shoulder difficulty — and spotty command have been purple flags in Macko’s improvement so far. He pitched simply 38 1/3 frames at High-A in 2022, logging a 3.99 ERA with a large 35.9% strikeout charge but in addition a regarding 12% stroll charge. It’s a pair of main “ifs,” but when Macko can get wholesome and refine his command to even simply shy of league common, the potential for a high quality large league starter is current. Failing that, the fastball velocity and wipeout breaking pitch have apparent late-inning reduction potential. Baseball America’s scouting report on Macko notes that he was one of many Mariners’ most sought-after targets in current commerce talks, too, and the Jays themselves might very effectively be requested about him in talks with different groups shifting ahead.

Overall, buying and selling a preferred and gregarious middle-of-the-order hitter for a reliever, even an ostensibly wonderful one, might be a troublesome capsule for Jays followers to swallow. That mentioned, there’s clear potential to return out forward within the gambit, as they’ll add three years of a bargain-priced, high-end reliever and a prospect with potential to rapidly stand up nationwide rankings with some higher luck within the well being division. The $12M+ in payroll financial savings figures to be reallocated to free-agent pursuits or maybe to further targets on the commerce market, too, so this will likely be however one step in a layered course of that might in the end profit each groups.

As for the Mariners, they’ll add a thunderous bat to the center of a lineup that additionally consists of Rodriguez, Ty France and Eugenio Suarez. Dipoto and his fees, nevertheless, determine to proceed so as to add to the lineup as they search to take the Mariners past the ALDS heights they reached in 2022. Parting with Swanson thins out the bullpen, although Seattle is deep in that regard. Parting with Macko subtracts one more high quality prospect from a farm system that has been depleted, however not emptied, by current commerce exercise (Luis Castillo, most notably). That mentioned, even when the M’s can’t prolong Hernandez, he’ll be a transparent qualifying provide candidate subsequent offseason, so they may doubtlessly recoup a 2024 draft decide within the occasion that he proves to be a one-and-done case in Seattle. For the tie being, there’s no denying that the group’s 2023 lineup seems decidedly extra formidable with Hernandez aboard.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that Hernandez had been traded to Seattle (Twitter link). TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that the Jays had been getting bullpen assist, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times first reported the particular names concerned.