Catching Conundrum: Weighing execs and cons of buying and selling every Blue Jays backstop

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The Toronto Blue Jays low season has already included one high-stakes choice within the type of the Teoscar Hernandez commerce, however maybe the most important alternative the workforce will grapple with is the way to deal with its catcher state of affairs.

While depth is crucial over an 162-game season, preserving Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno would characterize a failure to adequately allocate the membership’s sources.

It’s exceedingly doubtless that a type of gamers can be moved, and deciding who goes will play a crucial function in shaping the Blue Jays’ roster building in 2023 and past. To say the state of affairs is difficult is an understatement, since you may make an argument for any of the three backstops being the best choice for Toronto within the close to time period — they usually all have various commerce values.

Here’s a rundown of the foremost execs and cons of shifting every of the Blue Jays’ starting-calibre catchers.

Danny Jansen

The case for preserving him: The Blue Jays are firmly in win-now mode, and Jansen would possibly simply be one of the best backstop they’ve obtained.

Since an influence breakout that started after a return from the IL on Aug. 31, 2021, the 27-year-old has hit .274/.348/.559, good for a 153 wRC+.

Due to accidents and the rise of Kirk final yr these numbers come from a 313 plate look pattern, however of the 316 hitters with a minimum of 300 journeys to the plate throughout that point Jansen’s wRC+ ranks eighth, straight between Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper.

On a per-game foundation, it’s not a stretch to say he’s been the workforce’s simplest place participant.

If Jansen is something near the hitter he’s been recently, shifting him could be a mistake. That kind of offensive manufacturing mixed with a defensive pedigree that earned him a 2019 Gold Glove finalist nod is almost unattainable to search out.

MLBTR initiatives him to earn $3.7 million in arbitration this yr, which implies he’s loads reasonably priced and there’s a ceiling on how a lot he can earn in 2024 with that as a baseline.

Because of his latest sturdiness points — and the actual fact he solely has two extra years of workforce management left — his commerce worth can be the bottom of the three catchers.

The case for shifting him: Although Jansen’s latest offensive manufacturing is staggering, it appears honest to imagine that he’ll regress to some extent within the subsequent two years. We don’t have many 2023 projections but, however Steamer pegs him for a 120 wRC+ in 2023, which is great — particularly for a catcher — however not dominant.

If the Blue Jays may discover a commerce accomplice actually shopping for into his latest manufacturing with the bat he’d characterize one thing of a sell-high alternative.

Jansen has additionally made repeated journeys to the IL during the last two seasons and his profession excessive in plate appearances is 384. He wouldn’t be requested to hold a full load if he stays, however it’s value questioning if the damage and tear of baseball’s most bodily demanding place will proceed to be a difficulty for him.

Moving Jansen would additionally enable the Blue Jays to show the place over to the mix of Kirk and Moreno — a tandem with complementary strengths that might put Toronto in “set it and forget it” mode on the place for a minimum of 4 years.

Alejandro Kirk

The case for preserving him: Kirk most likely has the very best ground of any of those catchers. He’s now produced a 124 wRC+ over 755 MLB plate appearances and final season his improved framing, blocking and throwing utterly overhauled assumptions about his defensive limitations.

He simply turned 24, he’s already began in an All-Star Game and he isn’t even arbitration-eligible but. Most gamers who match that description are seen as foundational gamers, particularly in the event that they play a premium place.

He additionally matches properly with no matter different catcher the Blue Jays resolve to maintain as his bat is so robust he profiles as an above-average DH. Although final season felt like one thing of an offensive breakout for him, it doesn’t appear to be his ceiling.

Kirk’s energy fell off in 2022 to below-league-average ranges and it appears honest to foretell a bounceback based mostly on his earlier manufacturing.

For that motive, Steamer is projecting a 142 wRC+ from Kirk subsequent yr in anticipation of his ISO bouncing again as much as .183.

For reference, since 2000 solely 4 catchers have had a wRC+ of 142 or extra in a season with a minimum of 500 PA: Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, Mike Piazza and Jorge Posada.

The case for shifting him: Kirk has extraordinary commerce worth for the entire causes that he’s value preserving.

Catchers along with his latest manufacturing and room for progress don’t develop into out there too usually, and the haul the Blue Jays may get in return from him would mirror that.

If Toronto is anxious that his unorthodox physique form will end in damage points down the street — or they’re reluctant to tie up the variety of DH at-bats he’s more likely to command in a single participant — that is the proper time to maneuver him whereas his worth is excessive.

Should the Blue Jays see Moreno as the long run on the place, an association the place he shares time with Jansen for the subsequent two years whereas slowly taking on the job could be an interesting blueprint.

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Gabriel Moreno

The case for preserving him: Moreno has repeatedly appeared on the prime of varied prospect lists, and there’s each motive to imagine he is usually a franchise catcher.

His athleticism is uncommon for the place, his defensive instruments are elite and his bat-to-ball potential is excellent. There’s a fairly good probability that he’s finally one of the best of the three, he prices the least, and he’s underneath workforce management for the longest.

Although he skilled a considerably regarding energy outage final season, his minor-league observe file suggests there’s thump in his bat, even when it’s extra gap-to-gap energy.

He additionally has a little bit little bit of positional versatility, which is able to develop into increasingly more interesting if his offence rises to a stage the place his bat is required within the lineup as a lot as humanly potential.

Prospects pretty much as good as Moreno come round as soon as a decade, if that, for many franchises.

The case for shifting him: With simply 73 plate appearances underneath his belt on the MLB stage, Moreno remains to be a prospect. Even one of the best prospects can bust.

It’s potential his energy by no means materializes on the highest stage and he turns into a very good defensive catcher who’s a slap hitter that doesn’t stroll sufficient. That isn’t the most certainly end result, however it’s actually on the desk.

While he has the bottom ground of this group by advantage of his lack of MLB expertise, he additionally may need essentially the most commerce worth — a minimum of to some groups. There can be golf equipment who worth him above Kirk as a result of they’re cautious of Kirk’s long-term sturdiness however in love with Moreno’s all-around talent set.

The alternative to amass a prospect of his calibre hardly ever comes round, and he could possibly be the centrepiece of a deal for a star-level MLB participant. If the Blue Jays pulled the set off on a commerce like that, they’d nonetheless be capable of carry again a duo of catchers that produced 7.3 fWAR final season.

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