5 Golfers Most Likely to Win Their First Major on the U.S. Open | Deadspin.com

Nobody picked J.J. Spaun to roll in a 64-foot birdie putt on the ultimate gap of the U.S. Open final 12 months when par would have executed the job.

Heck, no one picked Aaron Rai to shoot 6 underneath over his last 10 holes to win the PGA Championship only a month in the past.

This is the great thing about golf’s main championships, when combined in with the Scotties and the Rories are some underdogs who aren’t on the typical fan’s radar but possess the sport deserving of a significant title that week.

I wished to re-rack the variety of prime contenders to win their first main on the U.S. Open this week at Shinnecock Hills on Long Island. I did an analogous train earlier than the PGA — a listing eventual winner Rai was nowhere near — however again then, I used to be centered on compiling the record of finest total gamers with no main. This time, I’m extra focused on one of the best picks of who may finish their 0-fer drought this week, primarily based on current kind and course match.

For occasion, you gained’t discover New York native Cameron Young on right now’s record although he’s the highest-ranked participant with no main. His bogey avoidance and scrambling capacity are well-suited for a U.S. Open and he very nicely might win this week, however he’s been quiet since a T26 on the PGA (one begin, 4 over-par rounds on the Memorial) and there are some names I like higher.

Viktor Hovland

Sure, actual good, let’s open with one of many sport’s most fickle younger skills with solely 5 main top-10s to his identify. A 3rd-place exhibiting on the Canadian Open actually obtained him on this record? Well, that’s a part of it. It was by far Hovland’s finest end of 2026, and he didn’t essentially have his finest stuff coming into Oakmont final 12 months when he went on to take third place, his finest end at a U.S. Open.

Like others on this record, Hovland’s match at Shinnecock has me intrigued. He ranks sixteenth on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and twenty first in strokes gained on strategy, so he ought to discover loads of fairways and greens. And not like earlier elements of his profession, Hovland is gaining strokes across the inexperienced (learn: chipping).

Tyrrell Hatton

I’ll be driving Hatton’s bandwagon till he will get the job executed at a significant, and his missed lower on the PGA Championship doesn’t dissuade me. He tied for third on the Masters and tied for fourth eventually 12 months’s U.S. Open, so this isn’t an instance of a LIV Golf participant not being examined nicely sufficient through the common season to be prepared when majors roll round (cough Bryson DeChambeau cough).

In truth, Hatton is coming off a victory at LIV Golf Andalucia, which, not like most of the occasions held at random programs within the United States, is performed on the revered Valderrama Golf Club in Spain, a former Ryder Cup and PGA Tour venue. One other thing to notice: Hatton tied for sixth when the U.S. Open was final performed at Shinnecock in 2018, and he scored higher because the week went on.

Si Woo Kim

Go on, exhibit to your golf buddies. Ask them to call the participant with probably the most made cuts with no miss this season. Only sickos like you’ll know the reply is Si Woo Kim, who’s 16 for 16 coming into the U.S. Open, with two runners-up and 10 top-25 finishes. The Korean is taking part in one of the best golf of his 10-year PGA Tour profession.

Of course, the difficulty with Kim is that his recreation has by no means translated to a significant championship. But Shinnecock appears like a check Kim may ace. He’s third on tour in driving accuracy, sixth in strokes gained on strategy and twenty fifth across the inexperienced. His putter is what prevents him from profitable extra typically, however Kim does rank fourth on tour in bogey avoidance, a key stat at a troublesome main the place pars would be the forex of the week.

Russell Henley

The final two names on this record are top-10 gamers on the planet, so we’ve admittedly left the realm of the “dark horse” picks. My impression is that Henley isn’t a family identify as a result of lack of a giant win, however that simply means his costs ought to be worthwhile if you wish to wager on him for a top-10 this week – and even an outright win.

The case is easy: Henley has completed top-10 at 5 of the previous eight majors and every of the previous two U.S. Opens. He really shared the first-round lead at Shinnecock in 2018 earlier than fading to a T25. These days he’s identified for his irons, however there is no such thing as a weak spot in his recreation – and he ranks first on tour in driving accuracy, first in scrambling and second in bogey avoidance, the best make-up of a U.S. Open winner. Finally, he’s in nice kind, having gained the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial three weeks in the past.

Tommy Fleetwood

You’re going to listen to this factoid lots this week, so let me be the primary to inform you: In 2018, Fleetwood fired a final-round 63 at Shinnecock and completed one shot shy of Brooks Koepka. Had Fleetwood not gone out on Saturday and posted 78, he might have gained and all the trajectory of his profession would really feel totally different. As it stands, similar to with Hatton, I’m all the time going to toot Fleetwood’s horn as somebody who deserves a significant win earlier than his time is up.

Missed lower on the PGA apart, Fleetwood has carried nice kind by way of this 12 months, peaking just lately with two top-fives at signature occasions (Truist, Memorial) and a T11 in Canada final week. He’s reliable off the tee and stellar across the greens (rating fifth in strokes gained and fifth in scrambling). As all the time, this actually could possibly be the week he places all of it collectively.