5 causes to be pessimistic about Raptors getting into 2026-27 season

The Raptors are cool once more. Adding a seven-time all-NBA choice following among the finest seasons of his profession will do this for a staff.

Twelve months in the past, the Raptors have been coming off a 30-win season. The hope internally was they’d get themselves into the combination for a spot within the Play-in Tournament. Playing significant basketball was the purpose.

Instead, they gained 46 video games, completed fifth and really almost upset the favoured Cleveland Cavaliers within the first spherical. And then they went out and (ultimately) acquired Kawhi Leonard, conjuring reminiscences of the Raptors 2019 championship season.

With coaching camp opening in Quebec City on Tuesday, expectations are increased and extra rapid, as they need to be when a staff provides a 35-year-old famous person. The different day I outlined 5 causes all of the optimism across the Raptors is properly positioned, beginning with the addition of Leonard, clearly, but in addition concerning the progress of the Raptors’ younger core, Scottie Barnes flashing famous person qualities within the playoffs and the remaining. But the upper the expectations, the extra room there’s for disappointment.

In the top, each personnel transfer in professional sports activities is a raffle, however maybe particularly when a lot is driving on a participant (Leonard) who’s beginning his fifteenth season. Like lots of people, I’m bullish on the Raptors prospects. I’m assured they are going to be scary on the defensive finish, hoovering up opponents’ possessions just like the cookie monster, and Leonard’s clutch-time offence and half-court proficiency needs to be a skeleton key in opposition to the league’s high defences, an issue final season. But are there causes for concern? Areas that may require particular consideration? Absolutely. Let’s talk about: 

1. How a lot Leonard are the Raptors going to get? Let’s simply get this on the market now with the hopes that it is going to be a non-story because the season unfolds: Going again to 2017-18, Leonard has performed in simply 400 regular-season basketball video games. He’s missed 318.

You might argue that in some methods it’s not as unhealthy as that appears in that 200 of the 318 video games he’s missed have been concentrated in three seasons: 2017-18 when he performed simply 9 video games for the Spurs in his final season in San Antonio resulting from a difficulty together with his quadriceps tendon in his proper leg; all the 2021-22 season resulting from an ACL tear in his proper knee suffered through the 2021 playoffs, and when he sat out a lot of the first half of the 2024-25 season after tearing his meniscus in his proper knee through the 2024 playoffs.

But then you would need to acknowledge that even within the six different seasons Leonard has missed a few quarter of his staff’s video games. And in case you are susceptible to a little bit of cynicism you’d doubtless level out that the three seasons within the final 9 that Leonard has performed probably the most video games have coincided with years he was up for a brand new contract: he was heading into free company when he performed 60 video games for the Raptors in 2018-19; was up for a three-year, $152.4-million extension when with the Clippers when he performed 68 video games in 2023-24 and was eligible for one more extension — which he simply signed with the Raptors — when he performed 65 video games for the Clippers final season.

The flip facet of that argument for me is all the time that when his knee flared up through the Eastern Conference Finals in opposition to Milwaukee in 2019 after the Raptors saved their title hopes with a double additional time win in Game 3, Leonard — clearly on the limp — refused the chance to take a seat out in Game 4. Instead, he performed the remainder of the best way, ultimately main the playoffs in minutes performed.

Given Leonard was heading into free company, and greater than doubtless was going to be leaving the Raptors anyway, his willingness to maintain pushing says volumes about his dedication to get his groups over the end line. When he’s on the ground, he’s all in on each ends, a high quality that units him aside even amongst his famous person friends. The Raptors, beneath the steering of vice chairman of participant well being and efficiency Alex McKechnie, have had success holding Leonard wholesome up to now.

For the Raptors to fulfill the expectations including Leonard to the roster inevitably brings, they’ll have to hold him wholesome for this yr and past. 

2. Mamu, the place artwork thou: In Darko Rajakovic’s three years as head coach, the Toronto Raptors have completed (starting final season) twenty sixth, twenty ninth and twenty sixth in three-pointers made through the common season. They have completed twenty first, twenty third and twenty eighth by proportion.

Making threes isn’t the one most necessary think about being an efficient NBA offence. As an instance, the Denver Nuggets completed tenth in three-point makes final season and had the second-highest offensive score in league historical past. But effectivity issues: the Nuggets led the league in three-point capturing.

We point out this as a result of for all of the justifiable pleasure in regards to the arrival of Leonard — partly as a result of he’s such an excellent three-point shooter — the Raptors stay a bit on the sunshine facet on the subject of three-point capturing total. You would commerce Sandro Mamukelashvili (who signed with the Los Angeles Lakers as a free agent) and Brandon Ingram over and over if it meant having Leonard within the lineup, however the Raptors even have much less three-point capturing on their roster than they did a yr in the past.

Ingram and Mamukelashvili made 240 threes on 38.5 per cent capturing mixed final season, whereas Leonard made 172 threes at 38.7 per cent, so the Raptors are literally lacking 68 high-percentage threes from a roster that was close to the underside in makes and effectivity final season.

And whereas Leonard’s capability to take and make pull-up threes and threes in isolation is barely one of many causes he’s a extra severe offensive risk than Ingram, making up for the splash Mamukelashvili offered off the bench gained’t be as apparent.

The affable Georgian wasn’t a giant issue within the playoffs, however he was a giant issue within the Raptors ending fifth within the East through the common season. The gamers that challenge to take in the 22 minutes he averaged over his 81 appearances don’t challenge as three-point threats. Veteran Kyle Anderson has averaged only one three-point try per sport over his complete 12-year profession. It’s arduous for a staff to have the whole lot, however the Raptors’ scarcity on this key space bears watching. 

3. East now not least: It is outstanding how totally different the notion of the Raptors turned after the playoffs in contrast with the place it was when the common season ended.

Sure, it was spectacular that Toronto was capable of seize a top-six seed and a assured playoff spot. Sweeping a pair of dwelling video games in opposition to the Heat in April to assist lock it down was encouraging additionally, however the Raptors have been largely seen as a pleasant common season staff with severe gaps.

Leonard fills a few of them, however is there a risk that the Raptors have put an excessive amount of weight on their efficiency in opposition to Cleveland within the playoffs? Sure the Raptors pushed them to seven video games, however it’s not just like the Cavs went on to romp by means of the East. They barely managed to squeeze by an unproven Pistons staff within the second spherical and have been simply swept apart by the Knicks within the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Raptors’ dimension and depth on the wing had been a match-up drawback in opposition to the Cavs all season, which defined why the Raptors have been 3-0 in opposition to Cleveland earlier than the playoffs began. Otherwise, the Raptors have been 1-11 in opposition to the opposite high three groups within the East and have been 1-11 in opposition to the highest six groups within the West. Meanwhile, the East has improved round them with Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving the tanking Bucks to the aspirational Heat; the Philadelphia 76ers including each Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, and the 2025 NBA finalist Indiana Pacers getting Tyrese Haliburton again.

The Knicks are the defending NBA champions, and the Boston Celtics have bolstered their centre place and may have a full season of Jayson Tatum at full energy after being injured a lot of final yr. At least 11 groups will likely be heading into the common season with a watch on grabbing a high six seed, and even the East’s weaker groups — Brooklyn, Chicago and Washington — promise to be higher, incentivized to keep away from the underside three ‘relegation zone’ launched as an anti-tanking measure by the league.

The Raptors are positively higher than final yr, however the risk exists that they’ll should be simply to remain related in a extra aggressive convention. 

4. We are household, proper? You must be naïve to play within the NBA and never acknowledge that enterprise and aggressive concerns will all the time be pulling on the cloth of the type of unity and selflessness that it takes for groups to really change into greater than the sum of their components.

But generally the enterprise facet of the sport might be actually arduous to miss. One of the qualities that powered the Raptors final season was the extent of unselfishness and hustle they performed with most nights. They set a staff report in assists for a 3rd straight season, and the power they threw into virtually each defensive possession was arduous to disregard. This was a bunch taking part in for his or her coach and for one another.

But there are some potential strain factors this season that will likely be watched. Take RJ Barrett, the native child made good, who has performed the perfect basketball of his profession since he got here to Toronto with Immanuel Quickley as a part of the commerce that despatched OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks through the 2023-24 season. Barrett led the Raptors in scoring in 2024-25 after which took a step again to assist accommodate Brandon Ingram final season, solely to guide the Raptors in scoring (in a tie with Scottie Barnes) through the playoffs when Ingram faltered.

But when requested about the potential of providing Barrett a contract extension within the low season, Raptors normal supervisor Bobby Webster dismissed it, declaring that the staff had till subsequent summer time to make that call, which wasn’t precisely a ringing endorsement for a participant who has in any other case figured prominently in commerce rumours. It’s a state of affairs that bears watching.

More broadly, the Raptors have lots of positional overlap on the ahead and wing positions. Inevitably somebody goes to be the odd man out. Keeping a 10- or 11-man rotation purchased in and engaged when there won’t be sufficient minutes to go round could possibly be a problem for head coach Darko Rajakovic that wasn’t a difficulty in years previous. 

5. Is Jak’s again again? The improvement of Jamal Shead together with the presence of Quickley and the flexibility of Scottie Barnes implies that the Raptors level depth isn’t as obtrusive a priority because it was this time final season, however the lack of depth at centre stays a possible drawback, notably on condition that Jakob Poeltl is coming off a sub-par season.

It’s not simply that the unspecified again problem that surfaced in coaching camp restricted the veteran centre to only 46 video games within the common season; it’s that within the video games he was obtainable, Poeltl didn’t appear to have the identical bounce in his step that he confirmed the season earlier than. On a per-possession foundation, Poeltl’s scoring, rebounding, blocks and steals have been all down in comparison with the 2024-25 season, and his private fouls have been up. And all of that was earlier than Poeltl bought jumped within the rotation through the playoffs by six-foot-seven rookie Collin Murray-Boyles.

All of that stated, Poeltl was by no means signed to be the fulcrum of a championship staff, however given the soon-to-be-31-year-old is their solely participant taller than 6-10 on the roster and he’s beneath contract for 3 extra years and $84 million after this season, the Raptors do want him to be the perfect model of himself, one thing he wasn’t fairly often, if in any respect, final yr.