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TORONTO — The Toronto Raptors should not an excellent basketball workforce, a minimum of if the usual of excellent is a workforce the place 50 regular-season wins is a given and something in need of profitable a minimum of one playoff sequence could be thought of a disappointment.
That’s not being adverse, that’s simply the fact when for a workforce coming off 25- and 30-win seasons, with one playoff look within the final 5 years, and none up to now three years.
And the Raptors are hardly alone. By the above commonplace, there are actually solely eight or 9 excellent groups throughout the 30-team league, and maybe simply three within the Eastern Conference.
The Raptors would possibly find yourself being good, or a minimum of fairly good, and on Wednesday I catalogued 5 causes to be optimistic about why they could possibly be a superb wager to exceed expectations — oddsmakers have their over-under win complete at 37.5 — and possibly even be a shock playoff contender within the East.
But then once more, the sharps in Vegas don’t remain in enterprise by being fallacious on a regular basis. There is a purpose the Raptors are thought of an extended shot to be even a .500 workforce, not to mention to complete within the prime six within the East and earn a assured playoff spot.
You can see the nice with the Raptors, however there are causes for concern as properly.
1. Shooting should enhance: It’s been greater than 20 years since Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns launched the NBA to the effectiveness of high-tempo offence, an open ground and elite taking pictures, and a decade since Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors perfected it. By this stage, having a minimum of three reliable deep-shooting threats on the ground is sort of obligatory, 4 is best, and 5 is best nonetheless. Most of the Raptors’ finest projected lineup configurations will battle to have two confirmed NBA deep threats on the ground, which isn’t any shock as a result of they’ve solely two gamers on their roster — Immanuel Quickley and Brandon Ingram — who’ve had seasons once they’ve made threes at a better-than-league-average fee on greater than 5 makes an attempt a sport.
If you squint, you possibly can see the place further taking pictures would possibly come from. Jamison Battle and Ochai Agbaji each had wonderful seasons from deep final 12 months, connecting on 40.5 and 39.9 per cent of their makes an attempt, however neither initiatives to be within the prime eight of the rotation. Gradey Dick was drafted due to his capability to shoot, particularly off motion, however he linked on simply 35 per cent of his threes final season. There’s no getting round that Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett are high-usage gamers who don’t scare defences from behind the arc, as they arrive into the season carrying profession averages of 30 per cent and 34.6 per cent, respectively. The Raptors hope an emphasis on transition offence, and passing and motion within the half-court, can mitigate what’s an apparent flaw, however every thing would work a lot better in the event that they shot the ball higher than their roster suggests.
2. Too a lot of a superb factor: One of the Raptors’ challenges this season is that a lot of their roster options gamers with overlapping strengths and weaknesses, fairly than complementary ones. Ingram is at his finest as a face-up, ball-handling wing, however so is Barnes, and Barrett will surely think about that as considered one of his major attributes. Can all of them co-exist successfully, given the restricted spacing on the roster?
Similarly, the Raptors don’t have any scarcity of massive wings or small-ball centre sorts who’re so crucial to how they wish to play defence: excessive up the ground and with a number of gamers who can swap and canopy ball handlers on the perimeter. Jonathan Mogbo, Collin Murray-Boyles and Sandro Mamukelashvili would all qualify, and positively Barnes is greater than able to additionally enjoying that function. But none of that group shoots properly, which creates spacing points and, virtually talking, makes it onerous to play a couple of or two of them at a time.
And then there’s a little bit of a site visitors jam amongst Dick, Agbaji, Ja’Kobe Walter, Battle and even AJ Lawson for the restricted minutes obtainable at taking pictures guard. Having too many decisions is best than not sufficient, however that place total, mixed with the Raptors’ lack of taking pictures, would possibly make it tough to maximise a roster that has respectable — if not overwhelming — expertise, prime to backside.
3. Can chemistry final? The vibes the Raptors loved final season have been actual. It was one of the crucial engaged and upbeat 30-win groups you’ll ever discover in skilled sports activities. There have been a number of causes for that: one is the setting created by head coach Darko Rajakovic and his employees; one other is that there are lots of good residents on the roster among the many veterans, and a real brotherhood among the many kids, with Jamal Shead rising as a optimistic connective drive. But one other issue is that because the season went alongside, and accidents knocked so many veterans and regulars out of the rotation, there was sufficient enjoying time to go round for everybody, doubly so when the mission shifted explicitly to improvement fairly than, say, chasing tenth place and the ultimate play-in spot. An astonishing 19 gamers averaged a minimum of 16 minutes a sport. It was a paradise for younger gamers, with loads of minutes and begins to go round for everybody.
That cannot be the case this season if the Raptors are going to compete for a playoff spot, and for the primary time in his profession as an NBA head coach, Rajakovic should make some onerous selections on roles and enjoying time. Inevitably, that can depart some gamers wanting extra, which might create stress or, on the very least, make it onerous to maintain the nice vibes going.
4. There is just one Jakob Poeltl: I imply this actually and figuratively. Poeltl is the one Austrian within the NBA, however he’s additionally the one participant on the Raptors roster able to being a beginning centre. That’s not a singular downside — discovering one reliable NBA massive is difficult sufficient; having two succesful bigs in your roster is an much more vital problem. But within the Raptors’ case, it’s not simply that their backup centre isn’t excellent; it’s that they don’t have one in any respect. That’s a major purpose the Raptors have been 6-40 with out Poeltl within the lineup between Jan. 7, 2024, and Feb. 25, 2025. They have been 7-5 when he sat out video games down the stretch after that, however most of that success got here towards groups that have been extra dedicated to dropping than the Raptors have been. A short absence can in all probability be managed round, but when Poeltl is injured for any vital size of time, it’s onerous to think about the Raptors being something greater than a play-in workforce.
As an apart, the Raptors’ lack of depth at level guard could possibly be a problem, too. Shead was an important story in his rookie season, exceeding expectations as a second-round decide, however anticipating him to excel as the one different true level guard on the roster could possibly be a giant ask.
5. Behind the 8-ball early: Loads of low season optimism across the Raptors stems from the truth that this group completed final season with a 22-21 file after an 8-31 begin and have been — statistically, a minimum of — the NBA’s third-best defence over that 43-game pattern after being the third worst of their first 39 video games. But having the NBA’s most tough schedule to begin the season and the best to complete had a giant affect on these numbers. Of the Raptors’ 22 wins within the second half, 13 of them got here towards the six groups that completed behind them within the total NBA standings. Conversely, the Raptors have been 9-34 on the season towards groups with a .500 file or higher for the 12 months, which is one purpose they have been so dangerous early within the season when enjoying a front-loaded schedule.
Well, the dangerous information is the Raptors’ schedule is front-loaded once more, though not as considerably as final season, with the tepid stage of competitors within the Eastern Conference having quite a bit to do with that. Still, the Raptors’ first 9 video games are towards groups which are projected to be within the playoffs this season. Things normalize considerably after that, however the flip facet is that Toronto’s second half received’t supply as many gentle spots as final season, with the 2 longest highway journeys coming in January and March. In the top, the Raptors’ future depends on them getting the wins they want once they must have them, however they’ll have their mettle examined early, they usually received’t have the ability to coast late.
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