Kirk quietly incomes place amongst Blue Jays’ best-ever catchers

Alejandro Kirk’s single to centre area in Atlanta on Tuesday wasn’t significantly important to the scope of his profession, however his presence on the All-Star Game was.

While All-Star appearances are an imperfect approach to choose a baseball participant’s resume, they’re notable, and accumulating two by the age of 26 is an accomplishment. It’s a very significant one while you change into the primary participant at your place to be a two-time all-star in your group’s historical past.

At this time final season, Kirk was hitting .234/.308/.323, and questions circled about whether or not he’d be capable to deal with a full-time beginning catching job if Danny Jansen left in free company. Now, he’s on observe to go down as the very best catcher in Toronto Blue Jays historical past.

Ernie Whitt’s longevity (1218 video games in Toronto) and the 1992 World Series MVP received by Pat Borders are important obstacles. Still, the mix of Kirk’s stellar first half and the five-year extension he signed earlier than the season put him in place to go down as a franchise nice.

For such a younger participant, Kirk is already comparatively excessive on the Blue Jays catcher leaderboards by most simple counting stats:

To conservatively estimate the place he would possibly land on these leaderboards by the tip of his present contract, I took his charge of accumulating these numbers over the past 5 seasons and projected him to build up 450 plate appearances per yr — a quantity that’s a bit low for his present function however bakes in the potential of harm.

I additionally completed out his 2025 by giving him the identical quantity of taking part in time he obtained within the first half. Putting all of that collectively, by the tip of 2030, Kirk’s placement on the leaderboards ought to look one thing like this:

There’s no assure he will get there, however that’s the place he’s monitoring with out assuming he’ll play as a lot as he has in 2025 — or be as efficient on a per at-bat foundation. That’s spectacular for a few causes. The first is that by the tip of his extension, Kirk can be coming into his age-32 season and should have some good years left that might be spent with the Blue Jays.

Perhaps extra importantly, counting stats like these drastically undersell Kirk’s contribution. What makes the 26-year-old nice isn’t his potential to build up offensive numbers in bulk, it’s the all-around worth proposition he offers, led by his excellent defence. Since the start of the 2022 season, his Fielding Run Value of +49 is second amongst all MLB gamers.

Thanks largely to this defensive contribution — primarily pushed by blocking and framing — his profession fWAR (13.1) is already second solely to Whitt (21.1) amongst Blue Jays catchers. The similar projection methodology used above to find out the place he may land on the offensive statistic leaderboard signifies he ought to finish his present contract with roughly 31 fWAR, a complete that may put him head and shoulders above Whitt and the remainder of the pack.

While that calculation may wind up being aggressive if Kirk offers with harm or untimely decline, it solely asks him to build up 3.2 fWAR per full season, a complete he got here near in 2024 throughout his worst offensive marketing campaign (2.7) and one he ought to blow previous in 2025, contemplating he already sits at 3.0. 

A counterargument to this is able to be that Kirk is benefitting from the new-fangled methods to measure catchers’ defensive worth, and different backstops in Blue Jays historical past would possibly’ve gotten fWAR boosts if the metrics we use now existed again then. There might be some fact to that, however development in measuring worth has additionally damage Kirk as his lack of foot pace has resulted within the highest damaging BsR within the majors since 2022 (-20.6).

Before 2002, that base operating statistic was solely based mostly on stolen bases and caught stealing, so slower gamers who didn’t try to swipe luggage may put up respectable numbers even when their lack of pace damage their group elsewhere. Past Blue Jays catchers in all probability have beneficiant BsR numbers in consequence.

Another counter to the concept Kirk’s huge general worth numbers are tied up in newer catcher metrics is the truth that he’s in all probability the very best hitting Blue Jays backstop ever. Because the 26-year-old performs in a reasonably pitcher-friendly period, he doesn’t lead franchise catchers in AVG, OBP, SLG or OPS, however adjusting for period and ballpark, he’s a transparent high canine.

The all-in-one offensive statistic of wRC+ has these changes in-built. By its reckoning, solely 4 Blue Jays catchers who’ve taken 500-plus plate appearances with the group have produced league-average or higher offence.

Kirk is the one one who’s above common by a big margin, and whereas that 110 quantity might not look dramatic, it’s uncommon for a catcher. Since 2000, Kirk’s wRC+ ranks nineteenth amongst backstops with 1,500 or extra plate appearances — a lot of whom can’t match his defensive prowess. That wRC+ quantity has him tied with catchers extraordinarily well-known for his or her offence like Evan Gattis, Brian McCann and Javy Lopez. It’s a contact higher than J.T. Realmuto. 

Because the best sources of his worth are delicate, Kirk may be missed at instances. Framing, blocking, and drawing walks seldom makes the spotlight reel. He hits the ball exhausting, however it hardly ever will get over the wall. He goes about his enterprise quietly and barely does something meant to attract consideration to himself. Kirk’s excellence in high-leverage conditions this yr (211 wRC+) has led to some signature moments, however the modest quantity of headlines he generates will not be proportional to his significance to the Blue Jays.

He would possibly simply be the group’s MVP in 2025, and the Blue Jays’ choice to maintain him in Toronto by his prime is trying higher and higher. Not solely does his contract guarantee Toronto has a reliable beginning catcher by the remainder of the last decade, however it could have additionally locked in a traditionally important determine for the franchise.