NFL Week 13 Pick ‘Em: Can Mahomes step it as much as lead Chiefs previous Cowboys?

It’s Thanksgiving week within the NFL, and heading into it, the Los Angeles Rams are atop the Super Bowl odds at +425 at BetMGM. 

We’ll see all 32 groups face off in Week 13, with three video games on Thanksgiving Day.  

The week closes out on the primary day of December, with the New England Patriots internet hosting the New York Giants on Monday evening. 

See my predictions for these video games and the remainder of the slate under.  

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers 

The Lions are permitting greater than 1.8 passing touchdowns per recreation, and Packers quarterback Jordan Love has had a number of landing passes in eight of 11 video games this season.  

Additionally, the Lions largely play Cover-1 and Cover-3, and towards these, Love has eight touchdowns and two interceptions.  

PREDICTION: Packers +2.5 (-102) 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs 

The Chiefs’ passing assault has been stale with QB Patrick Mahomes throwing only one landing over his previous three video games.  

I count on that to alter, because the Cowboys permit 2.18 passing touchdowns (first) and 252.3 passing yards per recreation (thirtieth within the NFL).  

PREDICTION: Chiefs -3 (-115) 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals 

The Bengals are more likely to have QB Joe Burrow again within the lineup for this recreation. 

He’ll tackle a Ravens defence that largely performs Cover-1 and Cover-3. Against these courting again to final season, Burrow has 18 landing passes.  

Additionally, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has suffered a brand new damage in every of his final three video games, together with one to his knee, one other to his ankle and now to his toe, which might restrict his impression. 

PREDICTION: Bengals +7 (-110) 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears 

When going through the Eagles, opposing QBs have seen Cover-1, Cover-3 and Cover-6 on about 76 per cent of their dropbacks.  

Against these, Bears QB Caleb Williams has been strong, throwing for 1,817 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions.  

PREDICTION: Bears +7 (-118) 

Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers 

In restricted motion, Browns QB Shedeur Sanders is averaging 3.15 seconds to throw. When their QBs this season take between three and 4 seconds to throw, the Browns have allowed 54 pressures, which is tied for fifth within the NFL.  

When pressured this season, Sanders has accomplished 27.8 per cent of his passes for 116 yards, two interceptions and has three turnover-worthy performs.  

PREDICTION: 49ers -5.5 (-110) 

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 

The Jaguars are tied for third within the NFL in pressures with 173.  

Titans QB Cam Ward has been pressured on 37.7 per cent of his dropbacks, and when he’s beneath duress, he’s accomplished solely 41.8 per cent of his passes for 584 yards, 5.3 yards per try, one landing, three interceptions and 6 turnover-worthy performs.  

PREDICTION: Jaguars -6.5 (-115) 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans 

The Texans play extra Cover-3 than anything, and Colts QB Daniels Jones has two landing passes and three interceptions towards that protection.  

I’m anticipating a good recreation because of Jones’ potential towards these coverages, coupled with the Texans averaging 25 factors per recreation over their final three, which is seventh within the NFL over that span.  

PREDICTION: Texans +4.5 (-110) 

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints 

The Saints are inside the highest 10 in pressures allowed (161), and when he’s been pressured, Saints QB Tyler Shough has accomplished 38.2 per cent of his passes and is averaging simply 4.8 yards per try.  

Furthermore, I don’t belief the Saints’ offence; they’re averaging 10.8 factors per recreation over their final 5 and haven’t exceeded 17 factors in that stretch.  

PREDICTION: Dolphins -6 (-110) 

New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons 

The Jets are thirtieth within the NFL in pressures (114) and haven’t intercepted a go all season.  

Offensively, the Jets are inside the underside 5 in whole yards per recreation (283.2) and are taking up a Falcons defence that’s allowed simply 190.4 passing yards per recreation (eighth) this season.  

PREDICTION: Falcons -2.5 (-115) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals 

Assuming Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is cleared to play after struggling a shoulder damage final week, he ought to feast on this Cardinals defence.  

They play Cover-3 and Cover-4 more often than not, and Mayfield has accomplished 67.4 per cent of his passes for 1,332 yards, seven touchdowns and one decide towards these.  

PREDICTION: Buccaneers -3 (-105) 

Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams 

The Rams are tied for third in pressures with 173 and face a Panthers squad that’s allowed 157 thus far, which is tied for tenth.  

Panthers QB Bryce Young has accomplished 49.5 per cent of his passes and has six turnover-worthy performs when pressured.  

PREDICTION: Rams -10 (-110) 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings 

Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy is within the concussion protocol, and if he can’t play, it’ll be Max Brosmer, an undrafted rookie who performed school soccer at New Hampshire and Minnesota, beneath centre.  

He and the Vikings must cope with a Seahawks defence that leads the league in pressures (201) and an offence that’s third in scoring, averaging 29.5 factors per recreation.  

Hard go on Minnesota.  

PREDICTION: Seahawks -10.5 (-105) 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills 

The Bills are fourth in EPA per go play at 0.24 and face a Steelers go defence that permits 258.7 passing yards per recreation (thirty first).  

The Bills might have a porous run defence, permitting 148.9 yards per recreation (thirtieth), however the Steelers common 24.1 rush makes an attempt (twenty sixth) and 97.1 dashing yards (twenty seventh) per recreation.  

PREDICTION: Bills -3.5 (-115) 

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders 

I’m not taking the Raiders beneath any circumstances.  

Their QB, Geno Smith, is tied for the league lead in interceptions, and so they’ve fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and senior offensive assistant Bob Bicknell. 

They’re a catastrophe.  

PREDICTION: Chargers -9.5 (-115) 

Washington Commanders vs. Denver Broncos 

While the Broncos are second in pressures with 181, Commanders QB Marcus Mariota (assuming Jayden Daniels is out once more) has truly performed comparatively effectively towards it.  

He’s accomplished solely 45 per cent of his passes, however the yards per try are at 9, and he has three touchdowns and three interceptions.  

Couple that with the Broncos’ offence averaging simply 16.7 factors per recreation over their final three (twenty sixth in that stretch), and the Commanders ought to be capable of preserve this one shut.  

PREDICTION: Commanders +6.5  (-102) 

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants 

The Patriots escaped the Bengals with a 26-20 win and didn’t cowl the unfold in that recreation.  

Now, again at dwelling, they’re favoured by 7.5 factors, and that hook is making me lean towards the Giants.  

The Patriots play a mixture of coverages, however trying over their prime 4, Giants QB Jaxson Dart, who ought to swimsuit up after struggling a concussion just a few weeks again, has eight landing passes and two interceptions towards them.  

Conversely, the Giants play largely Cover-1 and Cover-3, and Patriots QB Drake Maye has 5 interceptions towards these.  

I count on the Patriots to win, however truthfully, I might see it ending equally to the Bengals recreation.  

PREDICTION: Giants +7.5 (-115)