NFL Week 14 Preview: Texans look to ship large blow to Chiefs’ playoff hopes

The Kansas City Chiefs are working out of probabilities.

If the Chiefs do not win out over their final 5 video games, which begins on Sunday with a tricky matchup in opposition to the surging Houston Texans, we very nicely could possibly be an NFL post-season that won’t embody Patrick Mahomes.

And whereas Sunday’s primetime matchup in opposition to Houston is not mathematically a must-win for Kansas City, it certain looks like one.

Per The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the 6-6 Chiefs enter Week 14 with a 37 per cent probability to make the playoffs. A win over the Texans and that quantity jumps as much as 51 per cent.

But a loss would take their probabilities all the best way right down to 11 per cent, basically that means they’d must win out and get some assist alongside the best way.

It’s arduous to fathom a playoff image that does not embody Mahomes and the Chiefs, however up to now this season, they’ve but to show they belong.

Ill-timed penalties, dropped passes and blown fourth-quarter leads have plagued the three-time defending AFC champions all season lengthy, and it is the explanation they at the moment have their backs up in opposition to the wall.

“We just have to execute at a higher level. We’ve done a lot of good things but we’ve made a lot of mistakes that we haven’t been able to overcome,” Mahomes mentioned this week. “At the end of the day, you have to go prove it. You have to prove it on game day.”

Their first probability to show it will not be a simple one, as they face a 7-5 Texans crew that has gained 4 straight video games and is instantly proper within the combine for not solely a wild-card spot, however an AFC South title.

Houston additionally sports activities the highest defence within the league by a lot of completely different metrics, and shall be no simple opponent for the Chiefs to beat. Especially when you think about that the Chiefs shall be with out three of their common starters on the offensive line.

The Chiefs have earned the correct to by no means be counted out till they’re formally eradicated, however that would turn into a lot nearer to being a actuality if they do not pull by way of on Sunday.

Here are another key storylines to control in Week 14:

NFC North driver’s seat up for grabs in Green Bay

If the Chiefs are one of many largest disappointments of the season, then the Chicago Bears can be the alternative.

Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, all the tradition in Chicago has modified in lower than a full season.

Before the season began, even a playoff look would’ve been seen as a significant success for Johnson and the Bears in Year 1. But as we enter Week 14, the goalposts have moved for Chicago.

At 9-3 after successful their previous 5 video games, the Bears head to Green Bay on Sunday because the No. 1 seed within the NFC with their sights set on a possible first-round bye.

It’s arduous to not see the Bears as an actual risk after what they did to the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday, and with two video games in opposition to the Packers over the following three weeks, they’ve an actual probability to take management of the NFC North.

But the 8-3-1 Packers have overwhelmed the Bears 11 of the previous 12 instances the division rivals have squared off, and are on a three-game successful streak of their very own.

If Johnson actually needs to go away little question about his blossoming new regime in Chicago, beating the Packers at Lambeau Field this weekend can be an excellent place to begin.

Otherwise, will probably be the Packers who transfer into the NFC North driver’s seat.

Bengals head to Buffalo with renewed hope

The 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals head into Week 14 feeling a lot better than the common 4-8 crew ought to really feel.

One main purpose for these good vibes is the return of franchise quarterback Joe Burrow, who reemerged final week after a prolonged harm absence and led the Bengals to a key divisional win over the Baltimore Ravens.

The different purpose? At 4-8, the Bengals are someway nonetheless very a lot alive within the race for an AFC North title and a house playoff sport.

That is thanks largely to the struggles of each the Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers, who each sit at 6-6 and simply two video games up on the Bengals.

But the margin for error is principally non-existent for the Bengals due to their poor begin, and it begins with a tricky journey to Buffalo to face the Bills on Sunday.

The Bills are coming off certainly one of their most spectacular wins of the season final week in Pittsburgh, once they rushed for a season-high 249 dashing yards.

But Buffalo shall be with out a lot of key defenders, together with edge rusher Joey Bosa, so Burrow and co. ought to be capable to put up some factors.

Whether will probably be sufficient to maintain up with Josh Allen in opposition to a poor Bengals defence is the true query.

Ravens vs. Steelers in desperation bowl

There is all the time loads on the road when the Steelers and Ravens meet up, however this Sunday feels additional vital.

The Steelers have been booed by their dwelling followers in final week’s loss to the Bills, and even former Pittsburgh legends are beginning to surprise if it is lastly time to maneuver on from long-time head coach Mike Tomlin.

Meanwhile, the Ravens and Lamar Jackson seemed inept on offence final week in opposition to the Bengals in a disappointing loss on their dwelling turf.

Despite all of it, the 2 groups enter Sunday’s matchup at 6-6 and tied for the AFC North lead. Whichever crew wins won’t solely take management of the division, but in addition quiet a number of the noise for at the very least per week.

The loser, however, must face the complete wrath of an already pissed off fanbase.

Game to observe: Indianapolis Colts (8-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Sticking with the theme of key divisional matchups, how a few battle for first within the AFC South?

The 8-4 Jaguars host the 8-4 Colts on Sunday within the first of two remaining matchups between the 2 golf equipment.

And it is a sport between two groups trending in reverse instructions.

The Jags have gained three straight video games, whereas the Colts have misplaced three of their previous 4, solely to see their as soon as comfy division lead disappear.

Another issue working in opposition to Indianapolis is the truth that it hasn’t gained a sport in Jacksonville since 2014.

With a brutal schedule remaining for the Colts this season, snapping that streak this weekend could possibly be the important thing to returning to the playoffs for the primary time since 2020.

Forrest’s favourites (Season file: 19-17 — All odds courtesy of BetMGM):

Bengals @ Bills — Pick: Bengals +5: With the Bills lacking a lot of key defenders, the Bengals ought to be capable to do sufficient to maintain it inside a area aim on the very least.

Bears @ Packers — Pick: Under 44.5: On a chilly day at Lambeau, that includes two groups that wish to run the ball, do not count on a shootout.

Texans @ Chiefs — Pick: Texans +3.5: With all of the accidents to the Chiefs’ offensive line, this Houston defence goes to trigger loads of points for Mahomes.

Full Week 14 schedule (All instances ET)

Thursday, Dec. 4
Detroit 44, Dallas 30

Sunday, Dec. 7
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1 p.m.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m.
Miami at NY Jets, 1 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 1 p.m.
Seattle at Atlanta, 1 p.m.
Tennessee at Cleveland, 1 p.m.
Washington at Minnesota, 1 p.m.
Chicago at Green Bay, 1 p.m.
Denver at Las Vegas, 4:05 p.m.
LA Rams at Arizona, 4:25 p.m.
Cincinnati at Buffalo, 4:25 p.m.
Houston at Kansas City, 8:20 p.m.

Monday, Dec. 8
Philadelphia at LA Chargers, 8:15 p.m.

BYES: Carolina, New England, NY Giants, San Francisco