NFL Week 3: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Cleveland -4

Through two video games, the Steelers’ offense has been…let’s go together with hideous. That could be too charitable, truly. Pittsburgh has gotten nearly nothing achieved down the sphere, notably in the course of the sphere, and Steelers followers had been already chanting for Kenny Pickett halfway via Sunday’s loss to New England. They would possibly wish to strive chanting for a brand new offensive coordinator, too. Matt Canada’s schemes look the identical as they did final yr, which is to say, not good. Cleveland appeared like they had been cruising to a 2-0 begin, after which Joe Flacco occurred. Flacco rallied the Jets to 14 factors within the final 90 seconds and stole a win. (Also, uh, look at this “coverage” on Corey Davis.) There’s nothing else to say, aside from it was an entire breakdown of Cleveland’s protection and particular groups, and it brought about the sort of loss that might hang-out the Browns three months from now. Thankfully for Cleveland, the Steelers’ offense seems too terrible to benefit from any defensive lapses.

Look good to your pals:

-Corner Cam Sutton has been a divisional ball-hawk; he’s bidding for his third consecutive sport with an interception towards an AFC North opponent.

-Jacoby Brissett could be a “game manager,” however he’s managed issues fairly effectively in each his begins towards the Steelers, posting a 102.8 passer ranking in these video games.

The choose: Browns 23 Steelers 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Chicago -3

Lovie Smith’s workforce was quarter-hour from a 1-0-1 begin and a stunning win over the Broncos, however they couldn’t maintain a late lead for the second week in a row. The Texans are plucky, however they only aren’t superb, so on one hand, you wish to hand it to Smith for the way arduous they play, however on the opposite, you’ll be able to’t ignore a workforce getting outscored 27-0 in two fourth quarters to this point. Chicago ran the ball effectively towards the Packers, however the passing sport continues to be a significant work in progress, and the Bears aren’t ok to beat good groups until they play a near-perfect sport. Still, they need to be capable of deal with Houston; in a big-picture sense, there must be important progress within the passing sport. Justin Fields barely threw the ball towards Green Bay, not even notching his tenth try of the sport with lower than three minutes remaining.

Look good to your pals:

-It’s sort of a tragic stat, let’s be sincere, however Dameon Pierce’s 77 scrimmage yards final week are probably the most by a Texans rooking operating again in a single sport since D’Onta Foreman in 2017.

-David Montgomery has been Mr. Consistency for the Bears. He’s received 50+ scrimmage yards in 21 straight video games, the third-longest streak within the NFL. He additionally had 155 scrimmage yards the final time these two groups met.

The choose: Bears 17 Texans 16

TV: FOX            LINE: Las Vegas -2

I’m buddies with a couple of Raiders followers. They’re conditioned to anticipate the worst from their workforce. Even they had been shocked by Las Vegas’ whole collapse towards the Cardinals, one which places them in a tough spot within the rugged AFC West simply two video games into the season. Vegas ran simply 5 offensive performs within the final 12:31 of the fourth quarter, after which the usually sure-handed Hunter Renfrow coughed up the ball and the sport when the Raiders had been virtually in vary for a game-winning area objective. It’s clear that Ryan Tannehill shouldn’t be the reply in Tennessee, and that the Titans may not have any solutions. Granted, they had been enjoying the Bills, a workforce presently masquerading because the Terminator, however Tennessee has already blown a lead and been blown out and hasn’t but gotten Derrick Henry (34 carries, 107 yards, 3.1 yards per carry) going. How lengthy till Malik Willis’ Week 2 cameo turns right into a long-term engagement on the place? If issues don’t flip round rapidly, then it may occur earlier than you suppose.

Look good to your pals:

-Davante Adams could be new to the AFC, however he’s no stranger to torching the AFC South. Adams is bidding for his fifth sport in a row towards the AFC South with a landing catch.

-Much like Adams, Robert Woods is again within the AFC after a prolonged stint with the Rams, however he has torched the AFC West, with 100+ receiving yards and a landing catch in two of his final three video games versus the division.

The choose: Raiders 27 Titans 21

TV: CBS            LINE: Kansas City -5.5

Patrick Mahomes is 22-3 towards the AFC West since taking up as Kansas City’s starter. He’s nice sufficient to get away with a C+ efficiency towards a workforce as proficient because the Chargers. The Chiefs may not have Tyreek Hill anymore, however they actually appear to be discovering their manner offensively, and if Clyde Edwards-Helaire can proceed to offer them video games like he did Thursday night time, they’ll be a multi-faceted nightmare for opposing defenses. The Colts? What would you like me to say concerning the Colts? They stink, it seems, and Frank Reich ought to begin worrying about his job. The Colts have performed 9 quarters. They have 3 whole factors in eight of them and 17 within the different. Matt Ryan was purported to be a superb match for a workforce with a fantastic offensive line and operating sport. Instead, he’s been completely putrid via two video games, and could be on the finish of the road. An 0-2-1 begin is staring this workforce within the face.

Look good to your pals:

-Does Mahomes have any actual weaknesses? It doesn’t appear to be it. Road video games actually haven’t bothered him. He’s received 17 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 117.3 passer ranking in his final 5 street begins.

-Stephon Gilmore can be underneath a whole lot of strain on this sport, however traditionally he has been powerful towards the Chiefs, with 9 passes defended in eight profession video games towards Kansas City.

The choose: Chiefs 30 Colts 27

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -6

The Bills aren’t simply scary, they’re terrifying. Tennessee has historically performed them powerful, however received their doorways blown off on Monday night time. Josh Allen is enjoying with the fully uninhibited confidence of a man who is aware of no matter he does goes to work, and he’s proper to really feel that manner. What else is there to say concerning the Bills? They’re fairly clearly one of the best workforce within the league via two weeks, and until Allen will get damage, that’s unlikely to alter. I used to be not a Tua Tagovailoa believer. Still may not be. But I’m beginning to change my thoughts increasingly more with every passing week. He appeared completely relaxed bringing the Dolphins again from 21 factors down within the fourth quarter for a shocking win. It’s a novel idea, actually; take a quarterback within the first spherical, then give him elite weapons to throw to, and a coach whose primary activity is to get one of the best out of him. Lots can nonetheless go incorrect, however early on, Miami seems each enjoyable and good.

Look good to your pals:

-Stefon Diggs’ huge sport towards Tennessee was important; his 3 landing catches gave him his third-career sport with 3 receiving touchdowns, probably the most within the NFL since 2019.

-Tagovailoa’s insane efficiency towards the Ravens put him excessive up the profession leaderboard in a single class; at 24 years, 200 days, he grew to become the third-youngest participant in league historical past to throw 6 touchdowns in a single sport.

The choose: Bills 35 Dolphins 28

TV: FOX            LINE: Minnesota -6

The Lions had been favored for the primary time in 24 video games, and so they delivered the products, beating Carson Wentz and the Commanders in a shootout. And wouldn’t you realize it, Jared Goff, the man picked forward of Wentz within the 2016 draft, and principally given up on lately, performed lights-out. Goff had 4 touchdowns and no interceptions, and Amon-Ra St. Brown casually put up 184 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. I’m not saying Detroit is sort of attention-grabbing however…Detroit is sort of attention-grabbing? Do you realize what else is attention-grabbing? When somebody insists that Kirk Cousins gained’t ship a dud when the brilliant lights are on. It’s attention-grabbing within the “I can’t believe this person still doesn’t get it” sense. Don’t get me incorrect, Cousins’ numbers will little question look good on the finish of the yr, and hey, the Eagles appear to be an early NFC favourite. But even with Kevin O’Connell the brand new head coach, Monday’s debacle appeared like the identical previous Cousins. I gained’t consider O’Connell can repair that till I see it.

Look good to your pals:

-St. Brown is changing into not only a star, however a famous person. He’s the third participant all-time (Randy Moss and Rob Gronkowski are the others) underneath the age of 23 with a receiving landing in six consecutive video games, in addition to the third participant ever with 8+ catches in eight straight video games.

-Cousins’ tough sport towards Philly would possibly imply extra Dalvin Cook, which might in all probability be a good suggestion anyway; in his final house sport towards Detroit (11/8/20), Cook had a career-high 206 dashing yards and a couple of dashing touchdowns.

The choose: Vikings 31 Lions 28

TV: FOX            LINE: Baltimore -2.5

Whew, buddy, the Ravens’ protection went fully in the bathroom within the fourth quarter. That was surprising and spectacularly terrible in equal measure. Baltimore has damage points of their secondary, however even with some banged-up guys again there, Tua Tagovailoa isn’t supposed to hold 28 factors in quarter-hour. I’d say {that a} John Harbaugh-coached workforce doesn’t quit fourth-quarter leads this manner, however that will be overlooking the truth that they blew 4 fourth-quarter leads final yr, too. Lamar Jackson is nice, however Baltimore has points. Speaking of points, the Patriots cured theirs, no less than for every week, by gritting out a win over the Steelers that solely Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz may love. If you’re a Pats fan searching for causes to be optimistic, the offensive line performed effectively, Mac Jones made some huge throws, Nelson Agholor had the play of the sport, and the workforce salted away the win on the bottom. Still, it was the Steelers, and T.J. Watt wasn’t on the market. Perspective.

Look good to your pals:

-Jackson actually wasn’t accountable for the loss towards Miami. He threw for 3 touchdowns and 318 yards, and his 119 dashing yards marked his 11^th-career sport with 100+ on the bottom, passing Michael Vick for probably the most such video games by a quarterback in NFL historical past.

-Damien Harris could be primed for an enormous sport; when these groups final met, he went off for a career-high 121 dashing yards. He was additionally a landing machine at house final yr, ending the season with 9 dashing touchdowns over his ultimate 5 house video games.

The choose: Ravens 27 Patriots 16

TV: CBS            LINE: Cincinnati -5

If it’s not panic time in Cincinnati, it’s shut. A loss to the Jets would carry a few full-on disaster. Joe Burrow is on tempo to be sacked 111 occasions this season; the Bengals re-tooled 80 p.c of their offensive line, and to date, your entire train has been a large failure. Burrow isn’t innocent, both; he has to start out quicker. For his profession, he has a 72.1 passer ranking, 1 landing, and 6 interceptions on his first two drives of the sport. The Jets weren’t getting dominated, however they had been getting beat soundly by the Browns for 58 or so minutes. Then all hell broke free in Cleveland, and by some means New York is 1-1. New York received contributions from everybody, and Joe Flacco confirmed he can nonetheless throw the deep ball (notably when the opposite workforce elects to not cowl it), however by far probably the most constructive story is Garrett Wilson’s breakout. The rookie from Ohio State had 8 catches, 102 yards and a couple of touchdowns, together with the game-winner, and appears effectively on his strategy to being a top-end risk.

Look good to your pals:

-Tyler Boyd loves enjoying the AFC East, particularly the Jets. He’s bidding for his fourth sport in a row with a landing catch towards an AFC East opponent, and third in a row with a landing catch towards New York.

-Only two quarterbacks within the NFL have no less than 300 yards passing in every of the primary two video games of the season. One is Carson Wentz. The different? You guessed it, Joe Flacco. If you had that earlier than the season, might I counsel enjoying the lottery?

The choose: Bengals 30 Jets 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Philadelphia -6.5

Well, the Eagles look downright horrifying. Philly abused Kirk Cousins in entrance of a nationwide viewers, and Darius Slay silenced Justin Jefferson. The headline story, nevertheless, was Jalen Hurts, who positive has the look of a star within the making. Hurts was in full command of Philadelphia’s offense, and the Eagles have to date harnessed his dual-threat skills to their fullest. It’s early, and peculiar issues are likely to occur in Philly, however how is anybody within the NFC East going to problem this workforce? Carson Wentz’s numbers weren’t dangerous in Detroit, however they don’t inform the entire story. He received off to a wretched begin, took a security and threw an interception whereas Washington was attempting to dig out of a 22-0 gap. He’s one of many league’s main passers early on, and he has a league-leading 7 landing passes, however the jury continues to be very a lot out on whether or not he can maintain this for a complete yr, or perhaps a few extra weeks. On the plus aspect, Jahan Dotson seems like a star within the making.

Look good to your pals:

-Jalen Hurts’ dominant efficiency towards the Vikings was traditionally nice. He grew to become the primary participant in NFL historical past with an 80+ completion proportion, 300+ passing yards and a couple of+ dashing touchdowns in a single sport.

-Jahan Dotson has gotten off to a quick begin. The Penn State product is one among two rookies with a landing catch in every of the primary two weeks. The different? Chargers H-back Zander Horvath. I do know, I do know, you already knew that one.

The choose: Eagles 27 Commanders 23

TV: FOX            LINE: New Orleans -3

New Orleans lastly misplaced a regular-season rock struggle to the Buccaneers, and whereas Jameis Winston deserves loads of kudos for enjoying with 4 fractured vertebrae in his again, he was very a lot Bad Jameis towards an excellent Tampa Bay protection. Three interceptions had been dangerous sufficient, however to throw all of them within the fourth quarter and have them result in 17 Buccaneers factors, together with a landing on a pick-six? That was…let’s go together with catastrophic. The Panthers additionally misplaced a rock struggle final week, falling to the Giants. If you didn’t catch the sport, don’t fear, you didn’t miss a lot, until the thought of a Graham Gano-Eddy Pineiro kicking battle will get you all sizzling and bothered. Baker Mayfield was dangerous, and Carolina’s greatest activity in the meanwhile must be determining find out how to get Christian McCaffrey 25 touches a sport, versus the 19 he had towards New York. Points determine to be at a premium on this one, and for the second straight week, I can’t say that I’ll blame you for those who select to go for one other sport.

Look good to your pals:

-Winston was dangerous towards the Bucs, however he’s been a street warrior generally, and particularly towards the NFC South. He has 9 touchdowns, 1 interception and a 103.4 passer ranking in his previous 4 street begins, and a 100+ ranking in 6 of his final 7 street begins towards division opponents.

-McCaffrey must get the ball rather a lot on this sport, notably in gentle of the truth that he’s searching for his fourth-straight sport towards the Saints with a dashing landing and cooked New Orleans for 137 scrimmage yards and a dashing landing the final time the groups met in Charlotte.

The choose: Saints 21 Panthers 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Los Angeles -7

I’ve received a grimy secret: The Jaguars are my choose to win the AFC South. Isn’t it simpler to ascertain after watching Trevor Lawrence carve up the hapless Colts, and the much-maligned Jags protection pitch a shutout? Christian Kirk introduced the products with 2 landing catches towards Indianapolis, and whereas the Colts’ historic struggles in Jacksonville are well-documented, the victory nonetheless serves as an enormous confidence enhance for a younger workforce nonetheless attempting to discover ways to win. The solely story that issues with the Chargers is Justin Herbert’s well being. Herbert has fractured rib cartilage, and head coach Brandon Staley termed him “day to day.” If Herbert can play and is unencumbered by his damage, the Chargers ought to win. Then once more, they in all probability ought to have overwhelmed the Chiefs in Kansas City final Thursday night time, and if we all know something about this franchise, it’s that they focus on new and inventive methods to shoot themselves within the foot. This is within the 4:05 “time slot of death,” however it has the potential to be an attention-grabbing – and nice – sport.

Look good to your pals:

-James Robinson isn’t but able to cede his job to Travis Etienne (if that was even the plan to start with). Robinson is the one operating again within the NFL with a dashing landing in every of the primary two weeks of the season.

-Austin Ekeler could be an issue for the Jaguars no matter Herbert’s well being. He had a career-high 213 scrimmage yards and a landing catch within the groups’ final assembly.

The choose: Jaguars 30 Chargers 24

TV: FOX            LINE: Los Angeles -3.5

Want to know one thing dangerous that’s taking place with Matthew Stafford? He’s beginning to throw a complete bunch of interceptions. In his final six regular-season video games, Stafford has 13 interceptions, together with 5 already this yr. His sloppiness and inconsistency mirrors that of the Rams total. Los Angeles very practically price themselves a straightforward win over the Falcons with an unfocused, horrible fourth quarter. An identical effort gained’t work towards the Cardinals. Kyler Murray appeared horrible for the higher a part of three quarters towards the Raiders, after which he received up off the mat and delivered an unbelievable win. Murray has been very uneven to this point this season, with one nice quarter papering over in any other case irritating play, however the true downside for the Cardinals is their protection, which has given up probably the most factors and fifth-most yards within the league via two video games. A division win and a 2-1 begin would make these very actual points rather a lot simpler to abdomen.

Look good to your pals:

-Cooper Kupp is nice towards everybody, and in each setting, and as such, he’s searching for his 10^th-straight street sport with 5+ catches and 90+ receiving yards. He had 13 catches for 123 yards and a landing in his final matchup with Arizona.

-Zach Ertz had 8 catches for 75 yards final week; his 27 profession video games with 8+ receptions are third-most all-time amongst tight ends.

The choose: Rams 34 Cardinals 28

TV: FOX            LINE: Atlanta -1

Arthur Smith’s Falcons have performed arduous in each of their losses, notably final week towards the Rams, once they may have thrown within the towel after the third quarter, however as a substitute rallied and practically pulled off a stunner. One factor that may’t occur once more from the Rams sport is the near-total ignorance of Kyle Pitts within the sport plan. He had simply 2 catches for 19 yards for the second-straight sport, and was solely focused 3 times. Geno Smith, and by extension the Seahawks, got here again to earth in Week 2. Seattle’s offense by no means actually received going towards San Francisco, and their protection had no solutions for Jimmy Garoppolo as soon as he entered for an injured Trey Lance. Seattle failed to attain a degree on offense and barely cracked 200 whole yards. That figures to be nearer to the norm for what occurs to this workforce the remainder of the season, notably towards higher defenses.

Look good to your pals:

-Drake London leads all rookies in receptions (13) and receiving yards (160) via two weeks, and he’s additionally the one rookie with 5+ catches in every of the primary two weeks.

-Seattle’s passing sport figures to be a battle, however D.Ok. Metcalf is searching for his third-straight sport towards Atlanta with a landing catch.

The choose: Falcons 23 Seahawks 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Tampa Bay -1.5

Green Bay appeared to kind of get their equilibrium again towards Chicago; Aaron Rodgers’ efficiency was of the sharp and environment friendly selection, quite than statistically spectacular. The actual story was that the Packers’ offense ran throughout Chicago’s protection, pummeling them into submission with Aaron Jones (15 carries, 132 yards, 1 landing) and A.J. Dillon (18 carries, 61 yards). Green Bay doesn’t but have a receiver to fill Davante Adams’ cleats, however perhaps they don’t want one. Tampa Bay’s protection actually seems championship-caliber, however the Bucs can be with out Mike Evans on this sport, after Evans shoved Marshon Lattimore to the bottom whereas the latter was jawing with Tom Brady. Tampa’s offense is as beat up as their protection is elite; Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Scotty Miller and Leonard Fournette are all talent gamers who haven’t practiced or have been restricted to date this week. Cole Beasley is within the fold, however he must stand up to hurry. Assuming a few of them can go, one imagines Brady and that protection will discover a strategy to flip a battle of all-time QBs right into a rock struggle, one which they win.

Look good to your pals:

-Rodgers’ sharp sport towards the Bears made him the second quarterback – Drew Brees is the opposite – with 40+ profession video games with a 130+ passer ranking.

-Devin White can be busy towards the Packers’ operating assault, and when the groups final met, he introduced the products, with 10 tackles, a sack and three tackles for loss.

The choose: Buccaneers 26 Packers 23

TV: NBC            LINE: San Francisco -1.5

Trey Lance’s ugly, season-ending ankle damage was powerful to observe, however the Niners’ season wasn’t sunk by it, due to the truth that they saved Jimmy Garoppolo round this offseason. No one is aware of what that offense would have appeared like as Lance grew into the beginning position, however with Garoppolo underneath heart, it must be fairly strong, and maintain San Francisco in nearly each sport. Given the expertise on the 49ers’ protection, a “solid” offense might need them set for a protracted postseason run but once more. Denver lastly confirmed some indicators of life simply earlier than it was too late towards the Texans, however make no mistake, there may be actual trigger for concern right here. Russell Wilson has appeared nothing like a big-money, franchise quarterback, and Nathaniel Hackett’s in-game teaching and play-calling have left a lot to be desired. It’s nonetheless early, however each Wilson and Hackett have to carry out at a better degree, or the unease within the Mile High City will turn into palpable.

Look good to your pals:

-All Jimmy does is win. Garoppolo is one among 4 energetic quarterbacks – Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are the others – with a .700+ profession win proportion (minimal of 15 begins).

-Wilson has tormented the 49ers greater than every other opponent. He has 36 profession landing passes in 20 begins versus San Francisco, his most towards any opponent.

The choose: 49ers 21 Broncos 17

TV: ESPN/ABC            LINE: New York -1

Dallas pulled off a Week 2 shocker, and Cooper Rush made Jerry Jones appear to be a genius, outplaying Joe Burrow and main the Cowboys to a game-winning area objective as time expired. Rush additionally managed to get the win regardless of solely middling work from the Cowboys’ operating sport. Micah Parsons was an enormous cause why Dallas received the win, racking up two sacks for the second sport in a row. At this level, Parsons would possibly make extra sense as a pure edge rusher, as he seems like a top-3 participant at that spot. The Giants’ win over Carolina wasn’t fairly, however it was a win. Is anybody actually shopping for New York as a severe risk? Probably not. But wins are wins, and 2-0 has them tied atop the NFC East. Daniel Jones’ efforts in New York’s Week 1 rally had been spectacular, however exterior of that, he nonetheless hasn’t proven a lot. If New York can get a win right here, they’ve Chicago at house subsequent, and would have a superb probability to move to Green Bay 4-0 in early October.

Look good to your pals:

-If Rush pulls out a victory right here, he’ll turn into simply the fourth undrafted quarterback since 2000 to win every of his first three profession begins.

-Jones hasn’t achieved a lot this yr, however maybe he can construct off his final efficiency towards the Cowboys; he had 2 touchdowns and a 106.9 passer ranking in his final house begin towards Dallas.

The choose: Cowboys 20 Giants 19