9 ideas on the 2024-25 Maple Leafs: Why it might work this season

Read Time:40 Minute, 30 Second

When David Pastrnak scored for the Boston Bruins in additional time of Game 7 in opposition to the Toronto Maple Leafs, my seven-year-old son produced his first sports activities tears. Not as a result of he’s a Leafs fan, and even an enormous hockey fan, however extra as a result of he was into staying up previous his bedtime to look at hockey along with his Dad, and that aim marked the tip of these nights.

I point out this solely as a result of I had some large emotions myself after that aim. Not tears, however a pit gnarled in my abdomen as my first clear thought was: “I don’t know if I can talk myself into that group again for another 82-game regular season.”

I knew I’d be again doing Real Kyper and Bourne, again on the regional broadcasts, and again writing in regards to the staff. For years I’ve believed they have been able to playoff success, however in that second, I didn’t know if I might hold believing in them. And that might make for an awfully lengthy season.

But.

But I’m nothing if not rational. And so, after some rational evaluation of this season’s roster, it brings me no pleasure to report that I believe the Leafs are the favorite within the Atlantic Division, and that but once more I consider they’ve bought the framework of a profitable staff.

Maybe if I simply bang my head in opposition to this wall slightly tougher…

That’s to not say they’ll undoubtedly discover success, simply that there’s sufficient on this roster for it to work. And for any staff on Sept. 25, that’s the one constructive place to start out from.

Anyway, sufficient large image stuff. Leafs camp is in full swing and I’ve bought some early season ideas and opinions, so let’s test in on the place we’re at.

Anthony Stolarz and Joe Woll are two good bets

This duo doesn’t have the confirmed histories of division rivals Andrei Vasilevskiy, Sergei Bobrovsky and even Jeremy Swayman. But for a mixed $3.26 million in opposition to the cap this season, they’ve positioned two extraordinarily sturdy bets.

Joseph Woll has obtained excessive technical reward from each goalie analyst we’ve had on Real Kyper and Bourne over time, and his “goals saved vs. expected last year” noticed him contained in the league’s prime third of NHL goalies. Meanwhile, Stolarz’s numbers in the identical class have been lights out. Whether you utilize SportLogiq or MoneyPuck (or another useful resource I might discover), Stolarz was a minimum of a top-10 goalie final yr in that exact stat.

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He’s additionally simply 30 years outdated, so it’s potential that he’s greater than able to deal with an elevated workload.

Yes, Woll is injury-prone and Stolarz doesn’t have the historical past of heavy video games performed within the NHL but. But the Leafs have been bottom-10 in staff save proportion final yr. If these guys handle a league common save proportion quantity, the staff will probably be a number of standings factors higher.

Marner’s worth, repute, and future

Like Mitch Marner, I need to reply this contract query as soon as, get it out of the way in which, and never discuss it once more for some time. (I’m certain it received’t ever come up on Real Kyper and Bourne, will it?)

The man is an superior hockey participant, full cease. I don’t consider for a second that somebody along with his expertise goes to tease 100-point seasons on repeat and by no means have playoff. It’ll occur for him. There is a laundry checklist of gamers who battle within the post-season and finally put it collectively within the large moments, together with Florida’s Aleksander Barkov, who had disappointing post-seasons earlier than profitable his Cup.

I additionally don’t consider that letting Marner stroll and signing two $6 million UFA defencemen all of a sudden makes this staff higher. It’s Toronto’s game-breakers who make them contenders. If you’ve adopted me for some years, you recognize I’m enormous on these difference-making gamers, and when your staff has them you’re fortunate and will cling on to that greenback quite than intention for unfastened change totalling $1.10.

That mentioned, Marner has unequivocally been a post-season ghost, failing to point out up when the chips are down:

Only a number of gamers have a extra stark drop-off in factors per sport (notably up to now 4 years or so) from the common season to the playoffs than Marner. You simply can not faux these issues aren’t true. He hasn’t stepped up but, so that you shouldn’t need to pay him like he has.

I additionally assume it’s sub-optimal for the participant and staff to have these negotiations go on all yr, making every sport a referendum on his price. And lastly, this is a chance for Marner to point out he prioritizes profitable and the staff by not grinding for each conceivable nickel on this deal, contemplating how properly he did on the earlier one.

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If there are some degree heads in his nook (and it seems like there are), you’d like to see him signal a deal for 4 or 5 years that pays properly and makes everybody completely satisfied. John Tavares’ cash drops off after this season, so if it’s a must to give Marner $11.5 million for 4 or 5 years, I believe most followers could be fairly completely satisfied.

This jogs my memory of when LeBron James “took his talents to South Beach” and everybody was mad, and he tried to play the villain. He’s no villain, and neither is Marner. They’re guys who need to be liked, and care what individuals assume.

If he digs in right here on one other negotiation, his repute in Toronto will take a blow. If he simply indicators for an inexpensive quantity, he can let his play do the speaking and never have the conversations be about his price versus his contract, however quite about what an important participant he’s.

And I believe for everybody — him, the staff, the followers — it could be much more enjoyable.

Willy can deal with centre

I used to be with the Toronto Marlies when Nylander was taking part in centre for them, and I can affirm that he can do it. As quick and robust as he’s signifies that even when he makes small errors right here and there, he ought to be capable to recuperate.

Obviously, the priority with Nylander is rarely “can he physically do it,” as I’m undecided anybody within the NHL has a extra full device package. It’s extra “will he do it” — which implies “will he pay attention for 82 games” — and the reply to that’s “no.” He may have some run of mid-season video games the place he will get beat from the wall, or he’s too far forward of the play, and everybody calls into query his capacity to play the place altogether. Indeed, over a full common season, I do assume you’d get higher outcomes from a line centred by Mitch Marner, simply because he pays extra constant consideration.

But within the playoffs, in opposition to stronger, elite centres, I like Nylander’s probabilities of driving a line from the centre place way more. He’s proven he’s engaged within the post-season now with some consistency (very like in overtimes, which additionally get his consideration), and so I believe the Leafs are higher off residing with some Willy Whoopsies this common season in an effort to give him the reps, and get the very best model of him at centre within the playoffs.

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Where to make use of Max Domi

I’m a contrarian inside myself relating to Max Domi, as I concurrently assume he’s and helpful participant, but can also’t ever see the place or how precisely it is sensible to make use of him. (At his contract although, he ought to be plus worth wherever he performs.)

What I’m satisfied received’t work, although, is pairing Domi with Nylander as a result of they’re each inconsistent with the sport’s particulars and are higher taking part in with a pair gamers who do it the correct manner. That pair would give again too many freebies to the opposition to justify no matter they may create.

According to Dobber Hockey’s “Frozen Tools,” they performed on a line with 5 variations final yr (the third participant diverse, together with Tavares, Tyler Bertuzzi, Bobby McMann, Nick Robertson, and David Kämpf), and 0 of these 5 traces completed above 50 per cent in shot makes an attempt. The most used one (with Bertuzzi) was nearly 45 per cent in 109 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey.

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What baffles me is how little run Domi has gotten with Marner, however extra particularly, with Matthews and Marner. The two London Knights have some junior hockey historical past collectively, the Leafs have been weak on the left aspect, and Matthews is constructed to play with passers, however guess what number of whole minutes Domi performed with Matthews and Marner within the common season final yr?

The reply: 10.

Ten minutes and 12 seconds to be actual, through which the shot makes an attempt have been 12-3 Leafs, the precise pictures have been 7-1, and targets — an necessary class — have been 2-0 for Toronto.

I don’t know if it could work — they’re each pass-first guys who sluggish the sport a bit, so perhaps that’s too redundant. But if nothing else, the Leafs ought to most likely simply test in to see if it really works?

Max Pacioretty scorching begin

The Leafs aren’t loaded at wing, I do know, however I’m simply undecided I get the Max Pacioretty factor until there’s some motive to consider he’s the identical man from three or 4 years in the past (and the very fact he’s had two terrible accidents shouldn’t be an argument for the participant to bounce again, sadly). Like many individuals, I’d quite see Nick Robertson get his alternatives, as I believe there’s nonetheless upside with him and I’m undecided what the best-case state of affairs is for Pacioretty.

He looks as if one other nice participant on the finish of a profession that the Leafs have tried beforehand in Joe Thornton and Jason Spezza and Patrick Marleau and Wayne Simmonds.

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If you’re a skeptic like me, the primary pre-season sport was the worst-case state of affairs as a result of frankly, I didn’t assume Pacioretty was very noticeable in opposition to Ottawa’s AHL lineup. But, he did tip one in, and shot one other into the goalie’s crest that in some way snuck by, so his stat line seemed nice.

They’re going to signal him, as has been reported by our personal Elliotte Friedman. And he received’t damage the Leafs. He’s regular participant, and he’ll be low-cost. I simply don’t understand how a lot gasoline is left, and if we’re being trustworthy, he’s most likely undecided both, and we’re all about to seek out out collectively.

Let’s go shorter right here for some ultimate ideas:

Easton Cowan

I’ve been at tryouts the place the puck doesn’t come my manner, and also you assume “I haven’t played bad, it’s just nothing’s really happened out there.”

Some of that’s unhealthy luck, however not all of it. Usually, I wasn’t prepared for that degree.

Maybe Cowan will discover it as camp goes on right here, however to this point I’ve watched six intervals of his pre-season and have had only a few moments the place I’ve thought “Oh nice” about one thing he’s completed (he drew a penalty!).

He hasn’t proven sufficient to this point for me to assume he’s NHL prepared but. That mentioned, I’m not a man who locks in an opinion of a participant he’s barely seen after simply two video games. I’ll hold the thoughts open and see Cowan can change the start of my evaluation.

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Everybody loves Grebenkin

And I do, too.

Craig Berube has referred to as him out by identify, he made a pair slick offensive performs within the pre-season, and he held his personal in a battle, which is sufficient to get on everybody’s radar. The battle factor is noteworthy, not as a result of it mattered within the sport, however as a result of it confirmed his willingness to have interaction and put himself on the road, it confirmed an absence of concern, and somebody who was attempting to make an impression. It’s onerous to get your self to battle whenever you aren’t a fighter.

That mentioned, I’d like to see Grebenkin mild up the American League earlier than getting an NHL shot. Let him be the man on the ability play dealing with the puck, the man out within the ultimate minute, the man who issues to his staff. He’s not sluggish, however his stride continues to be ugly (he form of straight legs it), and so I’d like to see the group foster the items which might be clearly there, quite than have him play eight minutes an evening and get yelled at for not dumping it in.

He’s prospect, I’m simply undecided he’s prepared both.

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Top-10 offensive zone

The NHL’s EDGE knowledge website lists the highest 10 groups in zone time (however simply the highest 10, as a result of we wouldn’t need to damage the emotions of the opposite 22 groups), and the Leafs didn’t crack that elite group. They’ve bought manner an excessive amount of expertise and, with their new additions on the back-end, manner too many guys able to shifting the puck to not be in that group. It ought to be an enormous precedence for the staff this season: stay in that offensive zone.

What was with the loaded roster for Game 1?

It’s a meaningless oddity, however it’s loopy how loaded the Leafs roster was for the primary pre-season sport. Go again and test their pre-season rosters in seasons previous and also you’ll discover week one is often a hodgepodge of AHL guys, and week two is often “We’ll dress our real guys at home, you dress yours in your building”.

My sense is Berube is attempting to get the form of this staff quick, which implies aiming to be prepared for Game 1 of 82, not sport 10.

As somebody who’s made noise about what ought to be the Maple Leafs’ aim this season — profitable the Atlantic and drawing a better first spherical opponent — I just like the pondering to this point.

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