Scout’s Analysis: What every crew will get in Marchenko-Knies blockbuster

And, boy, did they ever ship a blockbuster for us.

The Maple Leafs despatched Matthew Knies, Emil Andrae, Steven Lorentz and a conditional second-round choose in 2027 to the Blue Jackets for Kirill Marchenko, Matthew Wood and injured netminder Elvis Merzlikins, for whom Columbus retains 18 per cent of the wage.

In Wood and Lorentz, the Jackets and Leafs swapped two gamers who had each handed by way of waivers final week. They are succesful bottom-six forwards and secondary elements of this deal. Meanwhile, Andrae was beforehand acquired by Toronto within the commerce that despatched Joseph Woll to Philadelphia, however after Nick Blankenburg and Troy Stecher earned jobs on Toronto’s blue line, Andrae turned the odd man out.

In Merzlikins, the Maple Leafs picked up an injured netminder who will depend towards their cap for $4.428 million when activated. However, he’ll probably start the season on LTIR and his inclusion within the deal has extra to do with making the salaries work than any position he may play on the NHL roster this common season. Merzlikins shall be a UFA subsequent summer time.

What this deal will actually come right down to is Knies vs. Marchenko. Knies is the youthful participant, turning 24 in October, whereas Marchenko is 26 and has helped drive the Blue Jackets’ prime line for a few years. He broke out with a 74-point season two years in the past and adopted it up with 69 final season in three fewer video games.

While the latest Leaf is the extra dynamic, offensively harmful participant, the latest Blue Jacket is the extra bodily participant on a less expensive contract. While Knies will make $7.75 million towards the cap by way of 2030-31, Marchenko arrives in Toronto with an extension — he’ll make simply $3.85 million towards this 12 months’s cap, however begin incomes $12.5 million a season subsequent 12 months by way of 2032-33.

It shall be fascinating to look at these two gamers as they hit their primes, however this was a deal Columbus was going to should make finally. Marchenko had made it clear he wasn’t fascinated by staying with the Blue Jackets long-term, and would have been going right into a contract 12 months just like Jason Robertson’s with Dallas final season – Marchenko would have been an RFA subsequent summer time, however one 12 months away from unrestricted free company.

This deal helps Columbus keep away from these distractions as head coach Rick Bowness strives to have a greater tradition of compete than he bought out of the group on the tail finish of final season. For Toronto, this deal places an finish to months-long hypothesis and commerce rumours round Knies, and sees them land a dynamic participant so as to add extra velocity and talent to the highest of the lineup.

For a better have a look at this deal, we flip to our scout Jason Bukala.

After a whirlwind low season in Toronto, the place the Maple Leafs made main adjustments to the entrance workplace, teaching employees and roster, GM John Chayka had another transfer up his sleeve as rosters had been finalized on Monday.

Only a couple of years in the past, the Maple Leafs began including extra energy to their group in a quest to chase playoff success. But by shifting out Matthew Knies in a commerce that brings in Kirill Marchenko from Columbus, Toronto acquired a distinct model of ahead so as to add to their prime six.

Here are my ideas on the large commerce.

Comparing Kirill Marchenko to Matthew Knies

When evaluating the offensive statistics of Marchenko and Knies, the outcomes marginally favour the previous. Here’s how the 2 forwards examine in key head-to-head classes general:

For Toronto followers, it’s key to notice a couple of stylistic variations. Marchenko is way more aggressive directing pucks on web and the Leafs’ energy play also needs to get a lift with Marchenko rolling over the boards, presumably on the primary unit.

Knies pushes again extra bodily than does Marchenko, which isn’t stunning. Knies is an influence ahead, whereas Marchenko is extra of a puck possession play driver. Still, though Marchenko isn’t as bodily as Knies, he has displayed a willingness to get in entrance of shooters and block photographs.

Neither Toronto nor Columbus made the playoffs final season as each groups dissatisfied, so I made a decision to take a better have a look at how each carried out underneath these circumstances in 2025-26:

• Knies performed 79 video games and produced 23 targets and 43 assits. He averaged almost 19 minutes of ice time per sport and was deployed in all conditions. But Knies completed with a team-worst minus-30 ranking. He did common 1.92 hits and 0.4 blocks per sport.

• Marchenko additionally averaged almost 19 minutes per sport in ice time final season and suited up for 76 video games, contributing 27 targets and 40 assists. Marchenko doesn’t kill penalties however he did common three minutes per sport on the ability play. He averaged 0.8 hits and 0.53 shot blocks per sport, which aren’t precisely “belligerent” numbers, however he completed the season plus-7, which stands out in comparison with Knies.

It’s additionally value mentioning the playoff expertise of each these gamers. While the 23-year-old Knies has already suited up for 27 post-season video games, scoring 14 factors and interesting bodily on the hardest time of 12 months, the 26-year-old Marchenko has by no means performed a Stanley Cup playoff sport.

I’m not making an attempt to take the straightforward method out with my conclusion between these gamers, however I imagine each Columbus and Toronto stroll away happy with this transaction.

There’s all the time threat concerned with any NHL transaction, however the one factor that considerations me about this transfer for Columbus is the truth that Knies struggled with consistency, particularly on the defensive facet of the puck, final season and desperately must bounce again in that finish of the ice.

Knies’ contract ($7.75 million AAV by way of 2031) gives extra value certainty for the Blue Jackets shifting ahead, whereas the Maple Leafs will begin paying Marchenko a $12.5 million AAV subsequent season. The excellent news is that with the rising cap, that contract will present higher worth because it ages.

What the swap of Marchenko for Knies comes right down to is that this: The Maple Leafs obtain a quicker, play-driving, extra dynamic ahead in Marchenko, whereas the Blue Jackets obtain a power-forward to doubtlessly journey shotgun with Adam Fantilli.

What about the remainder of the commerce?

• As quickly as Toronto signed PTO invitee Nick Blankenburg to a contract, one thing needed to give with the make-up of their blue line. The crew couldn’t afford a roster that included Troy Stecher, Emil Andrae and Blankenburg.

• I belief Blankenburg greater than Andrae general, so it’s a wash between these two for my part. There will undoubtedly be accidents all through the season and having three undersized defenders doesn’t present a recipe for achievement towards groups like Florida or Washington.  

• There’s room for gamers like Steven Lorentz and Miles Wood on NHL rosters as depth forwards. Lorentz performs a straight-forward, easy sport, whereas Wood performs quick on straight strains and might create turnovers when he arrives first on the scene of the forecheck. Swapping Lorentz and Wood on this deal seems like a shuffling of the deck chairs.

• Toronto additionally provides goaltender Elvis Merzlikins from the Blue Jackets, who’s at present on the shelf recovering from low season shoulder surgical procedure. He had the surgical procedure on Aug. 17 so it’s unlikely Merzlikins shall be out there till in direction of the tip of the common season, if in any respect. He’s within the final 12 months of his contract that counts $5.4 million towards the cap. Merzlikins shall be headed to LTIR.

As a scout, I’ve a bias in relation to buying and selling away draft capital, so I couldn’t assist however discover the conditional second-round choose (2027) Toronto additionally despatched Columbus within the commerce. It’s very troublesome to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the Atlantic Division is loaded with groups that would realistically contend for a Stanley Cup. If Toronto fails to make the playoffs this season their draft grid isn’t precisely flush with picks for the following a number of cycles. They do, nevertheless, nonetheless have Colorado’s first-round choose in 2027 (top-10 protected).