The closing stretch: A more in-depth have a look at the Blue Jays’ post-season paths

TORONTO — If there’s such a factor as an enormous collection break up, the Toronto Blue Jays earned this weekend with consecutive wins over the Tampa Bay Rays.

That ensured the Rays completed the collection proper the place they began it 4 days prior — two video games again of the Blue Jays within the American League wild-card race. And, thanks partially to the Seattle Mariners one way or the other blowing an 11-2 sixth-inning lead and falling to the Kansas City Royals, it saved the Blue Jays within the driver’s seat with eyes on securing dwelling subject benefit in a wild-card collection.

Toronto’s magic quantity to clinch a post-season berth is now 4. That might be 4 Blue Jays wins, 4 Baltimore Orioles losses, or any mixture therein. The earliest the Blue Jays may clinch is Tuesday. But the result is a close to inevitability. The actual intrigue this week shall be within the jockeying for wild card seeding between Toronto, Tampa, and Seattle. Here’s the place that race stands Monday morning:

The division winners are a fait accompli. The New York Yankees can clinch the AL East with a single win over the Blue Jays this week at Rogers Centre. The Houston Astros received the AL West way back and want solely three wins or three Yankees losses to earn the league’s greatest document. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians clinched the AL Central over the weekend and upon the Yankees’ subsequent win — or Cleveland’s subsequent loss — shall be assured to complete with the worst document of the division winners, positioning them to host one of many league’s two wild card collection.

Cleveland’s opponent in that collection would be the third-place wild card crew. In the AL’s different wild card collection, the highest wild card finisher will host the second-place one. The host of every collection is the house crew for all three video games, scheduled to be performed over the weekend of Oct. 7-9. The prime two division winners — Houston and New York, barring the inconceivable — will spend that weekend ready to host the wild card collection winners within the five-game divisional spherical.

So, as issues stand Monday morning, the Guardians would host the Mariners in a single collection, whereas the Blue Jays would host the Rays within the different. Of course, this seeding can and sure will change. Toronto and Tampa every have 9 common season video games remaining; the Mariners have 10. Rather a lot can occur over the subsequent week-and-a-half with solely 2.5 video games separating the three wild card groups. There’s even the potential of a tie.

And keep in mind, Game 163 tiebreakers are a factor of the previous. Instead, two-team ties on the finish of the season shall be determined by head-to-head document. And three-team ties will come right down to which membership has the very best mixed profitable proportion in opposition to the opposite two groups.

With the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rays all having completed their season collection in opposition to each other, we all know who would have the sting within the varied situations:

The unhealthy information for the Blue jays is that they don’t maintain the hammer in any tiebreaker situation. The solely method Toronto can earn home-field benefit within the wild card spherical is by ending with extra wins than each Seattle and Tampa. The excellent news is they start the week main the race and may play one recreation worse than these two groups over the subsequent 10 days and nonetheless host a wild card collection.

And but, if the Blue Jays play solely two video games worse than Tampa, or 2.5 worse than Seattle (the Mariners have a recreation in hand), they’re heading out on the street. And what if the three groups end tied with an identical data on the finish of the season? Then the Blue Jays will enter the playoffs because the AL’s third wild card crew and head to Cleveland to play the Guardians.

But one can argue that wouldn’t be a nasty end result. While the Guardians and Blue Jays have an identical 86-67 data, Cleveland’s gotten there whereas taking part in 110 occasions in opposition to groups beneath .500. Toronto’s earned its document in opposition to a lot more durable opposition, taking part in sub-.500 groups solely 71 occasions whereas nonetheless averaging 4.8 runs scored per recreation to Cleveland’s 4.3. The Guardians have a plus-58 run differential; the Blue Jays, plus-74. Cleveland’s offence has mustered a 98 wRC+; Toronto’s is an AL-best 117.

A 3-game playoff rotation of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill supported by a bullpen with a 3.09 ERA on the season is nothing to be trifled with. But each AL playoff crew can have wonderful starters atop its rotation. Toronto’s separator is its league-best offence. And it ought to be ok with its capability to out-produce an anemic lineup that includes Owen Miller (86 wRC+), Will Brennan (70), Myles Straw (63), and one in all Austin Hedges (46) or Luke Maile (76) in its bottom-third.

Naturally, Toronto’s greatest end result in 10 days can be to host the wild card collection at a raucous Rogers Centre — no matter opponent. But if that’s off the desk, and the remaining choices are traversing a continent to tangle with Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, and the AL’s fourth-best offence in Seattle, navigating varied zugzwang conditions in opposition to the hyper-adaptable Rays at cursed Tropicana Field, or hopping over Lake Erie to face a Cleveland lineup boasting just one 20-homer bat (the Blue Jays have 5), the trail of least resistance is evident.

And there’s extra. The post-season subject received’t be re-seeded after the wild card spherical. The winner of the collection between the third wild card crew and Cleveland is assured to go on to play the division winner with the second-best document — the Yankees. The winner of the opposite three-game collection between the highest two wild card groups goes on to play the AL’s greatest crew — the Astros.

Now, the Yankees and Astros are each wonderful golf equipment with run differentials in extra of plus-200. But the Yankees have performed .500 baseball for the reason that all-star break whereas the Astros have a greater second-half profitable proportion (.667) than the spectacular one they posted within the first (.648). Which is to say nothing of Houston being the extra proficient — and, maybe most significantly, wholesome — crew on paper. It’s clear who you’d somewhat play if given the selection.

Simply put — if the Blue Jays completed third within the wild card race, they’d be taking a look at a Guardians and Yankees path to the ALCS, somewhat than a Mariners/Rays and Astros one. It’s nonetheless baseball; nonetheless a collection of barely weighted coin flips. But it’s simple that Toronto’s win chances can be a couple of proportion factors greater if it was wanting on the Cleveland and New York facet of the bracket.

Regardless, Toronto’s purpose coming into the week is evident — win as usually as attainable to safe dwelling subject benefit in a wild card collection. That quest begins with a substantial problem because the Yankees arrive at Rogers Centre Monday with loads nonetheless to play for. A division nonetheless to clinch; a house run document to chase; a testy collection loss within the Bronx the final time these two groups met to avenge. If you had to decide on a remaining schedule from the three wild card groups, it in all probability wouldn’t be Toronto’s:

The Mariners are positively greatest positioned for this closing stretch, as they draw cupcake matchups at dwelling in opposition to the Rangers (65-87), Athletics (56-97), and Tigers (60-92). But Seattle is coming off a equally soft stretch during which it went 3-7 in opposition to the Angels, Athletics and Royals. There are not any givens in MLB.

The Rays, in the meantime, should battle by way of an extended street journey, however will encounter a few groups within the Guardians and Astros that shall be prioritizing relaxation and optimizing their post-season pitching plans somewhat than placing all the pieces they’ve into profitable every night time. They’ll then end the season in opposition to a checked-out Red Sox membership that’s pitched to an AL-worst 5.14 ERA over the second half.

The Blue Jays will no less than get an opportunity to beat up on the Nick Pivetta’s and Rich Hill’s of the world later this week following what’s sure to be an intense conflict with the Yankees. And of their closing collection of the season, at Camden Yards in opposition to the upstart Orioles, the Blue Jays could encounter a crew that’s eased off the gasoline after being eradicated from the hunt.

Or, from one other perspective, one competing freed from stress and eager to play spoiler in opposition to a crew it had a heated run-in with earlier this month. Pick whichever narrative you want, it’s nonetheless baseball. MLB historical past is plagued by examples of on-field outcomes defying on-paper projections. All we’re assured is a gripping week-and-half because the Blue Jays, Rays, and Mariners jockey for place. Toronto begins with the within observe. Where they end is anybody’s guess.