Which AL East group gives greatest menace to Blue Jays?

While the Toronto Blue Jays gained the AL East and the AL pennant in 2025, they gained’t enter 2026 with an iron grip on their division.

Despite final season’s success and notable low season additions in Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers, the Blue Jays are more likely to enter subsequent 12 months as slim divisional favourites. A Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette signing would possibly shift the narrative, however no matter what occurs between now and Opening Day, the group will likely be grappling with a troublesome division that wouldn’t be a cakewalk for any membership.

With the Winter Meetings wrapped up, it’s price taking a peek across the AL East to see how the off-seasons of the Blue Jays’ rivals are going and how much menace they seem to pose to Toronto now.

Playoff consequence: Lost 3-1 to the Blue Jays within the ALDS

Notable low season additions: SP/RP Cade Winquest (Rule 5 Draft)

Retained: OF Trent Grisham (one 12 months, $22.03M), RP Ryan Yarbrough (one 12 months, $2.5M)

Notable low season subtractions: RP Devin Williams (NYM), RP Mark Leiter Jr. (ATH)

Publicly linked to: SP Freddy Peralta (commerce), OF Brenton Doyle (commerce), SP MacKenzie Gore (commerce), OF Cody Bellinger, OF Kyle Tucker, SP Tatsuya Imai, SP/RP Brad Keller

Threat Level to Blue Jays: High – Toronto dispatched New York handily within the ALDS, however that doesn’t imply they’re going away in 2026. New York has made the playoffs in eight of the final 9 seasons, and the return of Gerrit Cole might elevate the group’s pitching employees subsequent season.

Aaron Judge stays a superhuman offensive producer who wants extra round him, however the Yankees are probably so as to add not less than yet another notable bat, even when that simply means bringing again Bellinger. Many of New York’s mid-season acquisitions, like José Caballero, David Bednar, and Camilo Doval, might contribute extra over the course of a full season, and hard-throwing starter Cam Schlittler is a breakout candidate.

There are yellow flags right here, too. New York’s farm system ranked within the backside third of the league by MLB.com, FanGraphs and ESPN’s most up-to-date rankings, which might make it troublesome for them to outbid their rivals within the commerce market. Ownership’s feedback on the profitability of the group might additionally trace at an absence of top-of-the-market spending for the Bronx Bombers.

Playoff consequence: Lost 2-1 to the Yankees within the Wild Card Series

Notable low season additions: SP Sonny Gray (commerce), SP Johan Oviedo (commerce)

Notable low season subtractions: SP/RP Steven Matz (TBR), OF Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT), SP Richard Fitts (STL)

Publicly linked to: SP Freddy Peralta (commerce), 3B Alex Bregman, RP Seranthony Domínguez, C Kyle Teel (commerce), SS Bo Bichette, 3B Eugenio Suárez, INF Isaac Paredes 

Threat Level to Blue Jays: Medium-High – The Red Sox have a younger core of place gamers, one in every of MLB’s few true aces and a few early low season buying and selling makes them extra harmful.

Gray is the headliner, contemplating he ranks fifth amongst all pitchers in fWAR during the last three years (12.8) whereas making a dependable 92 begins. His velocity bears watching at his age (36), however he nonetheless missed bats at an elite fee in 2025 (26.7 Okay%), and he figures to be a significant mid-rotation improve, not less than. Oviedo is a wild card after dropping 2024 and far of 2025 to Tommy John surgical procedure, however optionable beginning pitchers are a helpful useful resource, and Boston’s pitching is in a considerably higher place than it was on the finish of final season.

The lineup will look a bit of bit quick if Alex Bregman indicators elsewhere, however the group seems involved in retaining him and has been linked to a variety of high-profile replacements. Outside of Garret Crochet and the rising Roman Anthony, Boston isn’t as excessive on star energy as some contenders, however it wouldn’t take many additions to have them difficult for the division crown. For a group prepared to be aggressive within the commerce market and the capability to spend in free company, that’s not a nasty place to be.

Notable low season additions: 1B Pete Alonso (5 years, $155M), OF Taylor Ward (commerce), RP Ryan Helsley (two years, $28M), Leody Tavares (one 12 months, $2.1M), RP Andrew Kitteredge (exercised one-year, $9M choice). 

Notable low season subtractions: SP Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)

Publicly linked to: SP Framber Valdez, SP Ranger Suárez, SP Freddy Peralta (commerce), SP MacKenzie Gore (commerce), SP Edward Cabrera (commerce), SP Tatsuya Imai, SP Michael King, SP Zac Gallen

Threat Level to Blue Jays: Medium – The Orioles are a group that must be taken critically, even when they don’t have sufficient confirmed pitching expertise to be feared.

Baltimore already possessed a gifted lineup, and the Alonso-Ward duo they added mixed for 74 house runs, a 129 wRC+ and 6.5 fWAR final season. As impactful as these veterans stand to be, the Orioles might get much more of an improve from inside bounce-backs, as a lot of their finest younger gamers dissatisfied in 2025 and will simply produce extra subsequent season.

Not everybody in that group will revert to their 2024 manufacturing ranges, however a pair probably will, and Jackson Holliday is a breakout candidate heading into his age-22 season. Alonso and Ward are becoming a member of a gaggle with large potential, and there’s a powerful probability the Orioles are a headache to pitch to in 2026.

Of course, Baltimore may very well be experiencing complications of its personal on the subject of run suppression. The again of the bullpen received a few upgrades, however a rotation headed by Taylor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer is underwhelming. Losing Rodriguez hurts due to his potential, even when he’s as high-variance because it will get at this level in his profession.

The Orioles’ rotation high quality and bullpen depth are each questionable, and that may probably be sufficient to carry them again from an AL East crown, however their lineup upgrades have made them much more fascinating than they had been when their 2025 season concluded. If they had been in a position to swing a commerce for a top-of-the-rotation arm like Peralta or Gore, that would make issues much more intriguing for a membership that gained 192 video games between 2023 and 2024.

Notable low season additions: SP/RP Steven Matz (two years, $15M), OF Cedric Mullins (one 12 months, $7M), OF Jake Fraley (one 12 months, $3M), RP Yoendrys Gómez (commerce), RP Steven Wilson (commerce)

Notable low season subtractions: OF Everson Pereira (CWS) 

Publicly linked to: 2B Ketel Marte (commerce), SP Zack Littell, SP Adrian Houser, SP Zach Eflin

Threat Level to Blue Jays: Low – The Rays usually deserve the good thing about the doubt, however the early returns on their low season are uninspiring.

Mullins is perhaps a reputable buy-low starter within the outfield, and Matz’s position versatility and 2025 efficiency are pluses for the Rays. Fraley and the relievers Tampa Bay received from the Chicago White Sox might assist, however are unlikely to have a significant affect.

The high of this lineup stays robust, and its beginning depth is enviable, however there aren’t many different clear strengths, and commerce rumours are swirling round key contributors Brandon Lowe and Shane Baz.

Tampa Bay shouldn’t be a group that may even be dismissed outright, and its presence within the AL East ensures there’s no terrible cellar dweller to gather straightforward wins in opposition to. At the identical time, until the course of the Rays’ low season adjustments dramatically — maybe with a Marte blockbuster — they would be the least of the Blue Jays’ worries.