Why Blue Jays guess $37 million on submariner Tyler Rogers

On one hand, it’s laborious to knock a workforce with a transparent want for high-leverage assist for locking in a man who leads all relievers in innings since 2021 (378.1 IP) with a wonderful ERA (2.71) and the flexibility to slither out of bother because of an elite groundball price (56.3 per cent). Rogers can be coming off a stellar season (1.98 ERA, 2.65 ERA, 1.3 fWAR) and was extremely valued across the league on the commerce deadline, yielding a robust three-player package deal from the New York Mets.

At the identical time, it’s laborious to disregard that Rogers is about to enter his age-35 season and simply ranked within the first percentile in common fastball velocity (83.5 m.p.h.) and whiff price (15.9 per cent). Coming up brief in these areas theoretically doesn’t matter in the event you get outs, however velocity and bat-missing are sometimes what get relievers paid. Public-facing contract projections for Rogers got here in effectively beneath the contract the Blue Jays gave him.

Those projections are low within the context of what Rogers has completed, however they baked in a reduction for the right-hander’s standing as a soft-tossing submariner versus a standard fire-balling late-game arm. That appears affordable given there may be much less proof of idea for pitchers like Rogers producing at a excessive degree than high-performing bullpen arms with a extra standard talent set.

Based on the Blue Jays’ funding in Rogers, it looks as if they view his unorthodox supply as a value-add fairly than a trigger for concern. While many relievers are mentioned to provide opponents ‘a special look,’ Rogers is the outlier of all outliers relating to arm angle. 

He’s not laborious to identify within the backside proper nook of the chart beneath:

Last season, Trey Yesavage earned loads of consideration for his 64-degree arm angle, however there are 5 different pitchers with a minimum of 60. Meanwhile, no MLB pitcher was inside 35 levels of Rogers. 

Standing other than his friends undoubtedly helps the most recent Blue Jays reliever succeed, nevertheless it additionally makes him difficult to undertaking. Does his distinct type imply he’ll age higher as a result of he’s not so velocity-reliant, or does his funky motion put his arm in peril? Is the league going to determine him out extra the longer his profession goes, or does his distance from his friends imply he’ll all the time ship an efficient change of tempo?

While going additional again in time would grant the chance to dive into the careers of gamers with top-tier names like Three Finger Brown, Dizzy Trout, Chief Hogsett, and Hod Lisenbee, it’s unlikely that how these gamers aged in such a special period has a lot to say concerning the trajectory of Rogers. 

The 24 submariners we’re left with fall into 4 broad classes:

Burned out effectively earlier than reaching 35

Bob Long, Steve Olin, Brad Clontz, Byung-Hun Kim, Mike Venafro, Kell Wunsch, Eddie Oropesa, Pret Prinz, Ben Rowan, Eric Yardley

These pitchers had various levels of success, however they didn’t get practically so far as Rogers has already, giving them minimal utility as comparables.

Didn’t get previous 35, however could possibly be instructive

Mark Eichhorn, Chad Bradford, Adam Cimber

Rogers has already been efficient on the age of 34, which is one thing no person on this trio completed, however every of them offers a reminder of why some groups could be cautious of submariners. All three have been extraordinarily profitable for a time earlier than abruptly falling off of their 30s.

Eichhorn was among the best relievers in Blue Jays historical past and ranked fifth amongst all bullpen arms in fWAR between 1986 and 1994 (14.5). After dropping his age-34 season to damage, he got here again at 35 with out a lot success (5.06 ERA) and made a number of comeback makes an attempt, however couldn’t get again to MLB.

Among the 60 relievers who pitched 400-plus innings between 2000 and 2008, Bradford’s 3.11 ERA ranked tenth. He handled a number of accidents in his age-34 season, spending extra time within the minors than the majors, after which didn’t log a professional inning from 2010 on.

Blue Jays followers witnessed Cimber give the workforce wonderful innings in 2021 and 2022 earlier than the wheels fell off in 2023. From age 27-31, he delivered 278.2 innings of three.20 ERA ball earlier than that quantity ballooned to 7.20 within the ultimate 45 frames of his profession break up between 2023 and 2024.

This small cohort is comprised of dwelling examples of the sudden decline some groups may’ve feared with Rogers. When a participant comes by his success by uncommon means, it’s straightforward to see that success as fragile. Clearly, the Blue Jays don’t really feel that manner with Rogers, and one of many classes beneath offers some credence to that concept. 

The story of 35-plus years is but to be written

Hoby Milner, Ryan Thompson, Justin Lawrence, Chase Lee, Tim Hill

Hill pitched as a 35-year-old in 2025, however we don’t actually know the way this group of present pitchers will fare of their mid-30s but.

The greatest comparables for Rogers

Kent Tekulve, Dan Quisenberry, Terry Leach, Steve Reed, Mike Myers, Brad Ziegler

This is a comparatively small group, however these guys have been profitable submariner varieties who pitched deep into their 30s. That solely 1 / 4 of the group made it this far is notable, however relievers are risky typically, and a number of the present gamers might flesh out this group within the years to come back, so the truth that this group is only a quarter of the overall isn’t as grim because it seems to be on the floor.

Tekulve, Quisenberry, Leach, Reed, Myers and Ziegler have been collectively an efficient group earlier than reaching their mid-30s, and aged gracefully.

Out of the six, just one had the trajectory the Blue Jays may worry with Rogers, as Quisenberry had a 2.52 ERA by age 34 (with 5 top-five Cy Young finishes) and a 4.19 mark in his final three seasons. 

The most up-to-date comparable is likely one of the most encouraging. Ziegler piled up 72 saves with a 3.09 ERA after his thirty fifth birthday, typically serving because the Arizona Diamondbacks’ main nearer.

Making any broad statements about this kind of pitcher primarily based on six gamers can be irresponsible, however the guess the Blue Jays are making on Rogers performing effectively as he ages is predicated on some precedent. His reliance on a misleading movement that received’t abandon him within the years to come back — and the truth that he’s had immense success with minimal velocity already — offers a logical framework for his contract, however the historical past of submariners was doubtless thought-about too. 

Rogers has one other ace up his sleeve that undoubtedly contributed to the Blue Jays taking the plunge with him: not like most of his submariner compatriots, he’s equally efficient whether or not he has the platoon benefit or not.

In most instances, pitchers of his ilk are wonderful in opposition to same-handed hitters and battle once they don’t have the platoon benefit, which helps clarify why they’re deployed as relievers. Rogers doesn’t have that drawback. The chart beneath reveals the submariners who’ve debuted since 2002, when FanGraphs started to function dependable platoon information, and the way they fared with and with out the platoon benefit:

Fellow latest Blue Jays addition Lee has freakish numbers which can be most likely greatest defined by his restricted MLB expertise (37.1 IP), however past that, Rogers stands alone with Thompson. 

Over time, he’s develop into increasingly sinker-heavy in opposition to lefties, they usually don’t appear to have a solution for it.

This attribute makes Rogers situationally versatile and well-equipped for high-leverage work, whereas a lot of his brethren have had one thing of a specialist function. It’s not as distinctive as his arm angle, nevertheless it makes him particular even inside the confines of the small group of pitchers he belongs to.

Every heavy funding in a reliever is dangerous, and going all-in on Rogers was not an apparent masterstroke by the Blue Jays. He doesn’t blow hitters away like most high-leverage arms in his new tax bracket, and his age isn’t insignificant. 

For any legitimate issues, it’s straightforward to know what Toronto sees in him. His manufacturing is constantly excellent, his arm angle is hard to deal with, he doesn’t have the one weak point most typical in his pitcher sort, and there’s some proof that sort ages effectively. Whether that’s a $37 million package deal or not is up for debate, nevertheless it’s a compelling one.