Will Pujols hit No. 700?

There’s nobody on Earth hotter than Albert Pujols proper now. In his final 10 video games, Pujols is slugging 1.258. That is the second-highest mark of his profession over any 10-game stretch, overwhelmed solely by his slugging proportion between August 6 and August 21 of this 12 months: 1.259. Basically, at 42 years outdated. The Machine is having arguably the very best hitting stretch of his profession. Since the beginning of August, Pujols leads all massive leaguers with at the least 40 plate appearances in slugging proportion… by greater than 300 factors — 1.083 for Pujols; .779 for second-place Paul Goldschmidt. He additionally leads MLB in on-base proportion, batting common, weighted runs created-plus, remoted energy, and he’s tied for the league lead in dwelling runs in that span. That final quantity is an important. With simply 41 video games left within the common season, Pujols wants seven extra dingers with the intention to develop into the fourth member of the 700 membership. What are the percentages he will get there?

Well, at his present tempo, he ought to get there earlier than the top of September, however that’s not life like. In order to appropriately decide the place Pujols will finish the season on the all-time dwelling run leaderboards, we have to have a look at a pair elements.

1. The chance that the Cardinals will face left-handed pitching down the stretch. This 12 months, in opposition to right-handed pitchers, Pujols is slugging simply .600. That’s terrible. Against southpaws, Pujols is slugging 1.242, which is 232 factors increased than Aaron Judge is slugging in opposition to lefties. So, if Pujols goes to achieve 700 dongs, a hefty quantity of lefties on the beginning docket must be the very first thing we have a look at. Sure, Pujols can nonetheless pinch-hit in opposition to lefties late in video games, however these at-bats can be too far and few between.
2. Pujols has solely performed in about 60% of Cardinals’ video games this season. I’ll strive to take a look at each risk of his prominence within the lineup in these ultimate 41 video games, however the details of emphasis might be how quickly the Cardinals safe a playoff spot and division title. If they don’t have anything to play for apart from playoff seeding, I’d think about the Cardinals would give Pujols each likelihood they might supply for him to achieve his milestone. If they don’t safe a playoff spot quickly, they’d seemingly push Pujols’ dwelling run chase apart in favor of enjoying the folks that can assist them win.
3. Home run regression. Sure, at his present tempo, Pujols would attain 700 even when he solely acquired one plate look per recreation. The extra seemingly state of affairs is that Pujols begins falling again to Earth extra in line to the place he was earlier within the season. That mentioned, if Pujols will get a bunch of lefties lined up and is given a hefty quantity of alternatives on the plate, he may nonetheless attain 700 even when his at-bats per dwelling run mark regresses.

Today, the Cardinals continued their 5-game sequence in opposition to the Chicago Cubs with a double-header. According to mlb.com, three of the 4 Cubs’ possible pitchers are righties (Javier Assad, Adrian Sampson, and Marcus Stroman). Tomorrow’s starter remains to be but to be decided, however it looks like righty Luke Farrell might be given the nod. Given Pujols’ scorching bat, the Cards in all probability received’t fear about his righty-lefty splits except the staff begins shedding. After all, Pujols acquired the beginning at DH for the primary recreation of the doubleheader at this time. That mentioned, I doubt he’ll begin all 4 video games. He could get extra alternatives late in video games he isn’t beginning if lefty relievers are introduced in, however I don’t assume we are able to assume Pujols will hit any dwelling runs this sequence. At most, one.

Even throughout his unimaginable month of August, he’s but to hit a single dinger off a right-handed pitcher. The Cubs do have three lefties of their bullpen at present — Brandon Hughes, Sean Newcomb, and Steven Brault — and Hughes has even labored because the staff’s nearer not too long ago. However, it’s too unlikely that Pujols will face a lefty a number of instances in any recreation all through this sequence.

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After the Cubs, it is going to be the Braves. They have a fantastic bullpen and might be trotting out three righties for his or her upcoming sequence (Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, and Jake Odorizzi). In 33 profession at-bats in opposition to Morton, Pujols has simply eight hits and nil dwelling runs. Can’t depend on something popping out of that recreation. He’s had 11 plate appearances in opposition to Odorizzi. Pujols is 0-for-10. Can’t anticipate something there. He’s by no means confronted Spencer Strider.

At that time, we’re already a sixth of the best way by the rest of the season for St. Louis, and he’s added zero to his identify. The Cardinals have 9 video games left this season in opposition to the Pirates, eight in opposition to the Reds, and 7 in opposition to the Cubs. I’ve already mentioned how Pujols received’t have many alternatives in opposition to lefties when dealing with the Cubs.

Against the Reds, he’ll seemingly get to face Mike Minor and Nick Lodolo a number of instances. That can be Pujols’ finest alternative to realize floor. Minor is giving up an astonishingly excessive 2.2 dwelling runs per 9 innings on the season and Lodolo, though a lot much less vulnerable to the house run this 12 months, is extra vulnerable to the stroll. If some Cards can get on base in entrance of Pujols in these video games, Lodolo must problem Pujols. You don’t need to try this.

The Pirates don’t have a single lefty on their beginning rotation at present. The staff traded away their solely constant left-handed starter, José Quintana, on the deadline and now solely have righties in JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Zach Thompson, Bryse Wilson, and Roansy Contreras. The Pirates do have three left-handed relievers, however they’ve solely pitched a mixed 21.2 innings all season lengthy. Maybe Dillon Peters will return from the IL and pitch a bit in opposition to the Cardinals, however on condition that the Pirates are in no place to make a run for the playoffs, it’s seemingly they wouldn’t put Peters out on the mound fairly often down the ultimate stretch, choosing a few of the youthful guys as an alternative, all of whom occur to be righties. That mentioned, if Pujols manages to get an at-bat in opposition to somebody like Cam Vieaux, just a few dwelling runs may very effectively occur.

The NL Central is among the tightest division races in baseball. Only the NL East and AL Central are tighter. At the time of scripting this although, the Cardinals had received eight in a row and 9 of their final 10, whereas the Brewers had gone 5-5 in that very same span. In my opinion, the Cardinals are the higher staff and may win the division. Given that the Cardinals have a reasonably simple schedule down the stretch — simply 13 video games in opposition to groups over .500 — and solely 4 video games in opposition to Milwaukee (St. Louis is at present 5 video games forward), I’d think about that the Cardinals will wrap up the division title someday between September 21 and 28. Obviously, the sooner the higher for Pujols’ sake.

Let’s assume the very best and say that the Cardinals clinch their division on the twenty first, in the course of their sequence with the San Diego Padres. That would depart two video games in opposition to the Padres, three in opposition to the Dodgers, two in opposition to the Brewers, and 6 in opposition to the Pirates. Six of Pujols’ fourteen dwelling runs this 12 months have come in opposition to these 4 groups. In truth, two of Pujols’ three multi-homer video games this 12 months have come in opposition to the Brewers and Pirates — a kind of homers within the Pirates was off utility man Josh VanMeter although; I doubt he’ll be pitching once more.

If Pujols is to achieve 700, the ultimate ten video games of the season would in all probability be the very best time to take action. Both the Brewers and Dodgers have a plethora of southpaws on their staffs. Pujols did nice in his final recreation in opposition to Brewers’ starter Aaron Ashby (two dwelling runs), who must be again from the IL earlier than that sequence — though it’s unknown when he’ll be scheduled to begin when he returns. Pujols has additionally been nice in his profession in opposition to guys like Milwaukee’s Taylor Rogers in addition to Los Angeles’s David Price, Tyler Anderson, Clayton Kershaw, though Pujols has by no means homered off Kershaw or Anderson. Sadly, it is perhaps too little too late at that time for Pujols.

It’s unlikely Pujols reaches 700 dwelling runs. If Pujols had higher numbers in opposition to right-handed pitchers this season, I’d really feel extra assured in saying the opposite, however because it stands, there’s a line of righties ready for the Cardinals that I can’t see Pujols penetrating. The Cardinals are vying for a division title, their first since 2019, and in the event that they need to safe that title, they’ll have to appreciate that as scorching as Pujols is true now, that DH spot can be finest served with somebody apart from Pujols filling that position. Keep Pujols on the bench in case the opposition brings in a lefty reliever, however that will imply just one or two at-bats for Pujols for a number of video games within the speedy future. Pujols must proceed his unimaginable tear, and at age 42, I don’t see it lasting for much longer.

As of Monday morning, Baseball Reference gave Pujols a 7.1 p.c likelihood of reaching 700 by the top of the season.

Even after his dwelling run that night time, these odds nonetheless maintain true. Frankly, there simply aren’t sufficient lefties on the plate and the Cardinals will seemingly go for somebody higher in opposition to righties till the staff clinches the NL Central, and that may not be for a very long time. I wouldn’t be shocked if Pujols passes Álex Rodríguez for fourth all-time, however 700 is perhaps simply out of attain. Who is aware of? If he’s simply quick, possibly he’ll resolve to come back again subsequent 12 months. That’s at all times a risk.