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This yr has been unprecedented in some ways, not least as a result of Australia’s first necessary new-vehicle CO2 emissions laws got here into impact, and a minimum of half a dozen new Chinese auto manufacturers have been launched regionally.
But the complete results of each these main developments are but to be felt, so 2026 can be a litmus check for the automotive trade, for these and a wide range of different causes.
However, there are various extra points going through the Australian new-vehicle market than simply recent Chinese manufacturers and the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, and there are all the time a couple of surprises.
We don’t have a crystal ball, however listed below are a few of our predictions for the brand new yr.
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Alborz Fallah
Some legacy manufacturers will realise that Australia will not be for them and start plans to drag out.
Without naming names, it’s very evident that some Japanese and European manufacturers are in deep trouble in Australia (and globally), and they’re being decimated on all fronts.
If you’re a automotive firm that makes no interesting vehicles on this extraordinarily aggressive market, and also you want to cost greater than the Chinese, your lifespan in our market can be very, very restricted.
Marton Pettendy
With the addition of a minimum of six new Chinese auto manufacturers to an already-saturated auto market this yr, and several other extra to come back subsequent yr, a few of them – and a number of the extra established marques – might properly be pressured to close up store in 2026.
But the inexorable stand up the pecking order of massive Chinese manufacturers like BYD, Chery and GWM, every of which has formidable native gross sales and market share targets, ought to proceed on the again of their relentless new-product onslaughts.
As a outcome, market leaders like Toyota, Ford and Mazda will probably be left with a smaller piece of the general pie – and of the profitable ute section, which by the top of subsequent yr can have extra opponents and a extra various vary of choices than Australians have ever had entry to earlier than.
William Stopford
The onslaught of Chinese manufacturers isn’t over. The Chinese home market stays cutthroat, and automakers want to export markets in quest of earnings. And whereas our market is loads smaller than, say, Europe or the US, there aren’t any pesky tariffs to take care of.
Chinese manufacturers are largely already constructing vehicles to fulfill our security requirements, and so they nearly universally have the identical hubris that they will unseat manufacturers which have been right here for many years.
Well, I not solely predict a number of as-yet unconfirmed Chinese manufacturers will come right here in 2026, however I additionally predict the market share of Australia’s prime model – Toyota – will barely budge.
Sure, smaller, weaker gamers might want to be careful, however we might be reaching some extent the place the Chinese manufacturers have inflicted sufficient injury on them and can begin consuming one another.
All the whereas, Toyota will proceed sitting fairly, a minimum of for some time but, helped by its large dealership community, robust status, and legion of usually conservative, rusted-on consumers.
The Chinese have stormed into the highest 10 but it surely stays to be seen how lengthy it’ll take for one among their manufacturers to crack the highest three… particularly after they’re now combating with one another.
James Wong
Australia’s new emissions laws and pending free commerce agreements lead me to imagine that the European manufacturers would possibly make a robust comeback in our market subsequent yr.
Given pricing and regulatory strain (or lack thereof) have lengthy been a barrier for the Euro manufacturers right here, we might see the gaps shrink between the Europeans and Asian manufacturers in 2026 – and it’s already occurring.
The indisputable fact that Skoda, for instance, can carry within the Enyaq for lower than an equal Toyota and even some Chinese-sourced competitors is frankly insane. And as different Japanese and Korean gamers are pressured to hike costs as a consequence of elements like Euro 6 emissions mandates and the like, we might see a shift out there.
Renault has made nice inroads again residence with its reasonably priced electrical and hybrid choices, and the Volkswagen Group has a slew of latest merchandise on the way in which. Not to say BMW, which is already knocking on the highest 10 of the Australian EV gross sales race.
I’ll have an interest to see the place the market is standing in 12 months’ time.
Damion Smy
BYD cracks the Australian prime 5. Toyota on prime with a decreased margin. Several newer manufacturers fold. Federal authorities winds again NVES after strain from automakers. Mustang GT will get axed (purchase one now). Toyota wins Bathurst. Piastri F1 turns into champ.
Ben Zachariah
More turmoil within the auto trade, born from tariffs, supply-chain points, geopolitical disputes, and an ever-growing, ever-more-competent and assured China.
We might even see some huge legacy automotive firms shut their doorways, whereas others might exit the Australian market as a consequence of growing strain from newcomer manufacturers. Citroen might solely have been the start.
Josh Nevett
The return of bodily controls to automotive interiors.
Minimalism is all properly and good till it compromises performance, which is strictly what has occurred with new automotive interiors.
By burying key automobile features such because the local weather controls in a display, producers have made vehicles extra distracting and subsequently extra harmful than they should be.
Thankfully, it appears that evidently a number of the larger automakers have listened to our incessant complaints. Volkswagen has dedicated to bringing again sprint switches for future fashions, whereas BMW’s head of ADAS not too long ago advised CarExpert: “We have an eye on this. We see that the longer you take to press a button, the more your eyes are off the road, and the more dangerous things become.”
Australian impartial automobile security authority ANCAP has additionally addressed this with its new security testing protocols, which reward bodily buttons for necessary driver controls just like the horn, indicators, hazard lights, windscreen wipers and headlights.
With that in thoughts, right here’s hoping that buttons and switches make a comeback in 2026.
Max Davies
Brands should form up or ship out. A plethora of Chinese manufacturers entered the Australian market in 2025, and whereas some in all probability gained’t final, others are shaking issues up.
Brands like MG and GWM are prime examples of what I’m getting at. Both have been comparatively early to the Australian market amongst their compatriots, however have since established vastly completely different approaches.
MG shortly skyrocketed up the gross sales charts with very low cost automobiles. Despite suggestions and criticism, the consensus amongst media is that a few of its latest fashions nonetheless want some finessing, even when they’re enhancing.
GWM, in the meantime, obtained a lot the identical suggestions on its automobiles and responded by establishing everlasting residence on the former Holden proving floor at Lang Lang in Victoria.
Local ride-and-handling tunes for reasonably priced Chinese vehicles? Yes please, and kudos for making it occur.
As time goes on, it’s efforts like GWM’s that trace at whether or not a model is in for the lengthy haul. And in the case of new manufacturers, gamers like GAC – which has co-developed automobiles with Toyota – are already receiving comparatively excessive reward at launch.
How can manufacturers like these not be a problem for others that look like resting on their laurels? Keep in thoughts that’s simply as relevant to a number of non-Chinese manufacturers, too, as not one of the established gamers are proof against being outpaced, outclassed, and overshadowed.
Sean Lander
Out with the brand new, in with the brand new – we’ll see various newcomer manufacturers fizzle and die, solely to get replaced by equally formed and sized manufacturers providing the identical factor with barely completely different trimming.
The Chinese automotive market is so huge that they will afford to have issues fail right here, the place the extra conventional marques can’t.
Expect to see a number of the 2024/25 arrivals disappear and get replaced by one other oddly named model. Oh, and ute gross sales will proceed to dominate.
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