Biggest surprises and disappointments from the NHL’s first quarter

As a busy slate of video games will get happening Saturday, we’ll formally hit the one-quarter mark of the NHL season.

Twenty video games is a crucial benchmark as a result of it isn’t “too early” anymore. Early streaks or slumps have had time to snap and, whereas issues will nonetheless definitely change within the weeks and months forward, it is sufficient alongside now for us to get a really feel for who’s going to exceed expectations and who will underperform.

With that in thoughts, we take a look at a few of the surprises and disappointments thus far.

Surprise: Dylan Strome and the Washington Capitals

Making the playoffs by the pores and skin of their tooth final season, and one way or the other with an atrocious minus-37 purpose differential, the Capitals did not encourage essentially the most confidence coming into this season. Their summer time additions had been: Pierre-Luc Dubois, forged off from Los Angeles one 12 months into an eight-year contract; Jakob Chychrun in a commerce for Nick Jensen; Logan Thompson in a swap for picks; Matt Roy by way of free company, who was injured and did not begin taking part in frequently till November; and Andrew Mangiapane in a commerce for a second-round decide after he fell out of favour in Calgary.

But was that sufficient to raise them again up the standings?

So far, the reply has been a convincing “yes” because the Capitals hit the quarter mark 13-5-1, second within the Eastern Conference by factors proportion (.711), and third within the league with a plus-27 purpose differential.

And whereas a few of the newcomers have been key to this shock (Thompson is wiggling his method into the Team Canada goaltending dialog), a carryover trio from final season has pushed a number of this success.

Washington’s prime line has been centre Dylan Strome between Alex Ovechkin and Aliaksei Protas, who’ve been on the ice collectively for a league-leading 16 objectives and plus-11 differential, in line with MoneyPuck. Ovechkin rightly has earned a lot of the consideration as he creeps in direction of Wayne Gretzky’s purpose file and roared out of the gate with 15 objectives in 18 video games earlier than a knee harm, however Strome is deserving of some consideration right here, too.

Strome has assisted on 12 of Ovechkin’s 15 snipes, with 5 of them main helpers. He’s the staff scoring chief with 28 factors by way of 19 video games, tied for seventh-best within the league. He’s additionally tied for third with Nathan McKinnon at 21 even-strength factors and is already over midway to his profession finest in assists.

If there’s something to observe for from Washington within the second quarter it’s these key stats: Their energy play is twenty fifth within the league (15.8 per cent) and so they have the best five-on-five PDO going, with a 14.42 staff taking pictures proportion that’s over three factors higher than the No. 2 ranked staff within the league.

They’ll additionally transfer by way of the subsequent stage with out Ovechkin, who will miss the subsequent four-to-six weeks.

Disappointment: Montreal taking even longer than anticipated to place all of it collectively

With Ottawa, Detroit and Buffalo all below stress to push up and into the playoffs this season, the Canadiens may very well be excused to have one other 12 months of constructing to that time. But even granting them that grace, the expectation was that they’d be higher than final within the East and on the cusp of being on the backside of the league total.

The time to be content material with nice draft-lottery odds must be over for this staff. Injuries to Patrik Laine and David Reinbacher took some wind out of their sails, however poor group and defensive play have them nicely off any improved tempo. At the quarter mark, Montreal’s .421 factors proportion lags behind the .463 mark they completed finally season.

One of 9 NHL groups permitting greater than 30 pictures towards per sport, the Habs are third-worst at defending their goaltenders from excessive hazard seems to be. As explored by Andrew Brewer, the defensive system the younger roster is being charged with executing might be taking part in a big position in that and, in the event that they wish to see in-season enchancment from right here, they could have to consider altering that method.

Having younger and thrilling gamers is nice (hey, Ivan Demidov isn’t far off from the NHL both) however promise ensures nothing over the long-term. Piling up losses, 12 months over 12 months, dangers ingraining a shedding tradition and that may be essentially the most difficult factor to dig out of, it doesn’t matter what the depth chart and pipeline seems to be like on paper.

The Buffalo Sabres have had promise, in a technique or one other, for years and have not made the playoffs in practically a decade and a half. If the Canadiens keep on the trail of no enchancment, they danger following the Sabres’ lead.

Surprise: Kirill Marchenko and the Columbus Blue Jackets

A fairly good begin in October for Columbus gave strategy to an terrible street journey in early November, by way of which they picked up one level in 5 video games. But they arrive on the quarter mark with two wins in a row, having overwhelmed the Boston Bruins on Tuesday and the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday in a wild 7-6 OT sport.

Playoff-bound this staff is unlikely to be, however there’s positivity below the floor. In the thick of the wild card at this level, and with only a minus-3 purpose differential, the Jackets have a top-10 offence total, however while you take out their struggling energy play, Columbus is a top-five offensive staff at five-on-five.

A giant a part of that’s the play of Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko, each delivering above expectations thus far. The former leads the staff at a point-per-game tempo, the latter a 24-year-old participant having a breakout marketing campaign and nearly midway to final season’s 42-point complete.

According to MoneyPuck, of all strains across the league with a minimum of 100 minutes performed collectively, the Monahan-Marchenko-Yegor Chinakov trio has scored 9 occasions and allowed three, making for an on-ice objectives proportion of 75 that ranks fifth-best within the league — tied with Tampa Bay’s prime line.

Disappointment: Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and the Nashville Predators

Though Steven Stamkos has had a greater November than October, he is nonetheless scored in solely 4 of 10 video games. Jonathan Marchessualt has really slowed to only a single marker within the second month.

Odds might point out issues will flip round, in any case Nashville has a league-low 4.88 taking pictures proportion at five-on-five, which might be the worst mark of any staff within the cap period if it ended up that method. The 2014-15 Arizona Coyotes (5.7), 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres (5.8) and 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings (6.0 and Stanley Cup winners) are the three worst 82-game staff taking pictures percentages over that point.

How possible are the Predators to get happening offence? Consider they common the ninth-most pictures per sport and Twelfth-most excessive hazard possibilities. They are nonetheless relatively low in anticipated objectives per 60, sitting 18th within the league, but additionally have the league’s worst precise vs. anticipated objectives differential — an astounding minus 1.1 per 60 minutes.

The subsequent worst staff by that measure? The Detroit Red Wings at minus-.54 and Boston Bruins at minus-.47. Nashville is method behind and overdue for one thing to drop.

Surprise: Dustin Wolf and the Calgary Flames hanging round

After being one of many larger sellers final season, the Flames did not appear nicely positioned to do something however play for a better draft decide in 2024-25. And but, after 1 / 4 of the best way into the season, they’re the second-best staff within the Pacific Division and hit Game 20 on a three-game profitable streak.

Any discuss that defenceman Rasmus Andersson may very well be traded a 12 months earlier than his contract expires has dissipated, and he leads the staff in scoring. Right behind him? Jonathan Huberdeau, although his 11 factors in 20 video games is not pacing higher than he completed his first two years with the staff.

The Flames are a prime 10 staff in pictures for per sport however nonetheless get outshot, on common. They aren’t an offensively illustrious staff, twenty second in objectives per sport and twenty sixth in power-play effectivity. What they’re getting, although, is a few very high-end netminding from rookie Dustin Wolf.

The 23-year-old has performed 11 video games and is eleventh amongst all netminders in Goals Saved Above Expected thus far. His .926 save proportion and a couple of.33 GAA is outperforming Dan Vladar and Wolf helps to raise the Flames and patch some points.

Without a clear-cut rookie scorer separating from the pack, Wolf is making an early intriguing case for the Calder Trophy. Though, as outlined by Adam Vingan this week, Wolf might should deal with a heavier workload over the remaining three-quarters to have a shot.

Disappointment: Stuart Skinner presumably taking part in his method off of Team Canada

Heading into this NHL season the three almost certainly netminders for Team Canada on the 4 Nations Face-Off in all probability had been Jordan Binnington (Stanley Cup winner), Adin Hill (Stanley Cup winner) and Stuart Skinner (Stanley Cup finalist). Now all of that’s up within the air — none of these goalies has a Goals Saved Above Average within the constructive.

The one struggling essentially the most, nevertheless, has been Skinner, who got here inside a whisker of profitable a Cup final season. It was thought he may carry that momentum into this 12 months and be a doable reply for Canada’s lack of depth on the place, however he is perhaps taking part in his method off that roster now.

To make sure, Skinner is not all in charge for Edmonton’s early-season stumbling once more. The Oilers are twentieth in five-on-five offence and their previously high-flying energy play is twenty second. They are fourth-best in pictures towards per sport nevertheless, and fifth-best in limiting excessive hazard possibilities at five-on-five.

Edmonton is tenth in anticipated objectives towards at even power, however twentieth in precise objectives towards. That’s the place the goaltending is available in, and the place Skinner is seemingly permitting that one squeaky purpose an evening.

Taking a have a look at the Canadian goaltending panorama, various different netminders are popping out of the woodwork and making a case. Detroit’s Cam Talbot has one of the best save proportion (.920) of any Canadian, with Washington’s Logan Thompson (.914) proper behind. Both are prime 10 league vast in GSAE. There’s even some query if Joey Daccord may very well be thought-about, given his father was born in Montreal.

Surprise: The sneaky good Minnesota Wild and the Winnipeg Jets outperforming expectations

The Central Division is not being led by the groups most assumed could be there by way of the primary quarter of the season — heck, nobody pencilled within the Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild to be first and second in the whole league on the quarter mark.

After a quiet low season in Winnipeg adopted a meek playoff exit towards Colorado, many individuals had been skeptical of the Jets coming into this season. But from the drop of the puck in October, the Jets got here out with one of the best 15-game begin of any staff in NHL historical past, taking pictures out with a 14-1-0 file.

They are giving early shades of the 2022-23 Boston Bruins, who not many noticed coming as a record-setting Presidents’ Trophy-winning staff. Through 20 video games the Jets have already got a plus-37 purpose differential, 9 higher than the No. 2 Carolina Hurricanes.

While Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers are all higher than point-per-game gamers and incomes loads of consideration, it must be famous the Jets even have among the best third strains going. Mason Appleton, Nino Niederreiter and Adam Lowry (a doable consideration in a checking position for Team Canada) have performed practically 200 minutes collectively and have been on the ice for 12 objectives for and simply three towards — 80 per cent of their favour. Of 43 strains which have spent a minimum of 100 minutes collectively thus far this season, that ranks third-best.

And we should not acknowledge one Central shock with out additionally giving props to the opposite. The Minnesota Wild have misplaced a couple of extra video games in additional time than the Jets, however they share the league lead in regulation losses with simply three thus far.

Long caught within the league’s center, the Wild had extra carefully been aligned with the St. Louis Blues on this division — whom we should always give an honourable point out as one of many league’s first quarter disappointments. But whereas the Blues regress, the Wild are rising up and changing into one of many extra intriguing long-term groups to observe within the league because the wage cap rises.

Disappointment: What occurred to the Boston Bruins?

These aren’t the Patrice Bergeron-led Bruins anymore — however that was additionally the case final season and so they nonetheless completed tied with the sixth-best common season file within the league.

In truth, it appeared as if Boston might have positioned itself higher in 2024-25 by including Elias Lindholm to centre and serving to fill depth they’ve struggled to interchange on the place. Even Nikita Zadorov on the again finish was a imply addition made to make sure Boston remained powerful to play towards.

But whereas neither of these pickups have neatly match thus far, to be honest, nothing has clicked. Jeremy Swayman stays a step behind after he missed coaching camp over a contract negotiation, which on reflection, the staff let get out of hand and it occurred after they put themselves in a tricky place by buying and selling out Linus Ullmark earlier than getting Swayman signed).

David Pastrnak was benched, Brad Marchand had a few noticeable disputes in-game with the pinnacle coach, and uncharacteristically dangerous losses to Toronto (4-0), Dallas (7-2) and Columbus (5-1) outlined the Bruins’ first quarter. The last a kind of losses was the final straw for head coach Jim Montgomery, who was fired even after being one of many extra profitable bench bosses over the previous couple of seasons.

The Bruins are a .500 staff by factors proportion on the quarter mark, tied with Anaheim and behind the Buffalo Sabres. Their minus-20 purpose differential is third-worst within the league, forward of solely San Jose and Pittsburgh. It’s uncommon firm for Boston to be in and, if issues do not get higher quick, consideration will flip to find out how to enhance or turnover the roster by way of trades — and even to the person calling the pictures within the entrance workplace.