Exploring three potential outcomes for the 2026-27 Maple Leafs

TORONTO — Parsing via all of the phrases spilled over the Toronto Maple Leafs this September, the consensus expectation is that they need to be … fairly meh. Most analysts and followers assume they will be “better” than final season — which was terrible — however no one I’ve seen has them pegged as way more than a playoff contender, or at greatest first-round fodder for an actual Atlantic Division risk. 

The Athletic makes use of Dom Luszczyszyn’s mannequin to undertaking a extra particular level whole, and this yr he’s acquired them at 93.4 factors, which might be good for 17^th within the NHL and simply out of a playoff spot. In his mannequin the “everything goes wrong” ground could be 78 factors (which acquired them Gavin McKenna final yr), whereas the “everything hits” ceiling is 108 factors. It’s a wide array.

So, let’s check out three potential outcomes for the Leafs this season, as a result of it’s clear there are an unusual quantity of query marks. What does it appear to be if it goes nice, terrible, or one thing in between, and the way would every situation occur?

Let’s begin on the prime, and work our manner on down. 

Everything goes proper: The Leafs push effectively over 100 factors and compete to win the Atlantic

How: Auston Matthews shouldn’t be solely wholesome, however the good vibes get rolling early. He places up a very good quantity of factors by the top of October, finds a groove, and it’s infectious. Matthews’ recreation fits Jim Hiller’s system higher than Craig Berube’s, they optimize his utilization to get probably the most out of his offensive recreation (zone begins!), and he’s again to being a top-10 participant within the league. 

Matthews can be helped by Gavin McKenna who, regardless of his dimension, is simply too expert to not be worthwhile. He turns into a staple with Matthews, will get on PP1, and runs up 40-50 assists. 

Meantime, Sergei Bobrovsky is pushed to point out he’s not accomplished but and has a “Marc-Andre Fleury in Vegas” yr with Toronto. Darren Raddysh proves he isn’t a one-year surprise and scores 15-plus targets and 60-plus factors on the top-pair, whereas Chris Tanev is ready to play greater than 70 video games as a valued shut-down-and-break-out veteran. 

The bottom-six bangs and chips in some targets, Matthews Knies takes a step, Easton Cowan proves to be a 50-point-plus spark plug, and a more healthy Nick Paul has a bounce-back yr. They can break the puck out with a revised defence corps, and the ability play strikes again into the top-10, perhaps top-five.

Hiller’s plans simply work, and the workforce thrives. If all of it hits, the Leafs are a division risk in February, they usually add on the deadline.

I’m reminded of the expression my junior coach used to make use of: “If ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ were candies and nuts, every day would be Christmas.” That’s an terrible lot of “ifs” and issues going proper, however “things go right” is considered one of Toronto’s potential outcomes.

Everything goes mistaken: The Leafs are a lottery workforce with no lottery decide

How: The reverse is true of Matthews. Despite early hopes, it turns into clear that bodily he’s simply not the man he was in his mid-20s and received’t ever be that man once more. Instead, he’s now simply shy of being a point-per-game degree participant who misses lengthy stints with accidents, and simply isn’t a participant you may construct a workforce round.

McKenna is simply too slight to get the place he must be offensively, and his defensive points are evident. Questions come up about whether or not the NHL is the best place for him to develop.

Bobrovsky seems to be just like the man he was final yr, Raddysh banks his large cash deal to appear to be a second-pair ho-hum participant, and not one of the new bottom-six hodgepodge seems to be any completely different from the Leafs’ earlier lower-roster iterations.

Worst of all, Hiller doesn’t have any new concepts to throw on the wall when his early plans fall via.

By Christmas, the questions on what to do with Matthews – who certainly received’t need to come again to a rebuilding workforce (that doesn’t have picks) – begin to get louder. Do they commerce him (and what’s even his worth)? Do they commerce all their older, proficient gamers? What’s the purpose in holding them?

Disaster seems to be like this: everybody within the Atlantic Division lives as much as expectations, even the playoff-fringy groups like Ottawa, Detroit, and Boston, whereas the Leafs are spinning their wheels.

Unlike final season, a 78-point tempo doesn’t assist Toronto with a draft decide since they’ve traded their very own 2027 first away already. So, failing this season makes for a protracted, bleak second half. 

Somewhere in between: The Leafs are a middle-of-the-pack workforce within the playoff hunt till the very finish

How: This is our almost definitely final result, the place each recreation issues. With the various query marks this workforce has, they’ll’t all hit, they usually received’t all miss. 

Above, I lumped “the bottom six” all collectively, however these are people. Colton Sissons could be a very good match whereas Brandon Duhaime shouldn’t be. Paul may match whereas Teddy Blueger fails. The reverse of these statements might occur too. But with all of the darts they threw on the board with these bottom-six contracts, it’s seemingly there’s an actual success or two, and an actual disappointment or two. 

Matthews doesn’t should be a Hart Finalist or battle accidents and battle, he may very well be a defensively stable, 80-point centre. Raddysh could be good with out being nice, and who can predict what number of video games Tanev can deal with?

Bobrovksy and Anthony Stolarz might very effectively simply be league common, and all it will result in some wild ups and downs all year long, which may very well be primarily based on randomness. They’ll lose 4 in a row, they’ll win 4 in a row, and you’ll take that to the financial institution.

What’s going to be actually fascinating is how the Leafs begin the season, as a result of that may have an effect on the tone of how we discuss in regards to the workforce. It will have an effect on how they deal with their roster all year long too, as they appear to have an keen GM relating to enhancing the depth chart, even in drastic methods. 

It’s clear simply what number of questions there are in regards to the Leafs – much more in quantity than any season in latest reminiscence. (Of all years for the league to shorten the pre-season, this was not the best one for Toronto.)

But, they do have eight of their first 12 video games at residence, they usually barely play towards their very own division to begin (three of the primary 17 video games), in order that they’ll have some alternative to get issues sorted out earlier than probably the most significant video games arrive. 

My conservative (however considerably constructive) prediction for the Leafs: 95 factors. Last yr that whole would’ve missed the playoffs by 4 factors, the yr prior it could’ve cleared the bar to get in by 4. It’s the cop-out reply, however there are too many variables to go a lot bolder than that. The begin of the season (and the vibes snowball impact) can be essential. When you win, gamers usually tend to stick with their coach’s system, and once they do this it pushes additional successful, and all of it feeds itself. Lose and also you get the other. 

The solely factor I do know for certain is that the Maple Leafs are going to be fascinating to observe, whether or not they win, lose, or discover themselves proper in the course of the draw.