The NHL panorama has modified without end, once more.
It’s no secret that the pay scale for NHL star gamers reworked the second Leo Carlsson put pen to paper on a five-year, $18-million AAV provide sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers that was finally matched by the Anaheim Ducks.
By signing the deal, Carlsson instantly reset the market. The second-overall choose from the 2023 NHL Draft grew to become the highest-paid participant by AAV in league historical past, surpassing Kirill Kaprizov’s $17M AAV he signed with the Minnesota Wild in September of 2025.
Carlsson’s deal despatched the NHL world right into a frenzy because it modified the dialog round participant contracts — not solely from a suggestion sheet entrance, but in addition with the opportunity of a participant receiving the utmost contract beneath the present CBA.
The max AAV a participant can signal for within the NHL is 20 per cent of regardless of the wage cap is on the time. For 2026-27, the wage cap has been set at $104 million, which means the utmost particular person wage could be $20.8M AAV. With a projected wage cap of $113M for 2027-28, the max would rise to $22.6M AAV.
Carlsson’s monster deal is available in at 17.31 per cent of the cap for the 2026-27 season.
There has solely been one participant to obtain the utmost 20 per cent contract on the time of their signing in NHL historical past. That was Brad Richards in 2006. When the wage cap was $39 million, Richards signed a five-year, $7.8M AAV contract extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning. But when the deal really kicked in in the course of the 2006-07 season, the wage cap had jumped to $44 million, making Richards’ cap hit 17.7 per cent.
So, whereas Carlsson’s record-setting AAV was stunning, we may now realistically see a number of gamers demand a max contract within the close to future.
Here are some gamers who is perhaps in that dialog.
If there’s one crew how Ducks normal supervisor Pat Verbeek dealt with enterprise main as much as this summer season, it’s Mike Grier and the San Jose Sharks. And solely as a result of they will wish to keep away from that very same provide sheet state of affairs with Macklin Celebrini.
The Sharks know they’ve a generational expertise with Celebrini, who was drafted first total within the 2024 NHL Draft and simply completed fourth in Hart Trophy voting throughout his sophomore season.
Celebrini tallied 45 objectives and set a Sharks franchise file for essentially the most factors in a single season (115), beating Joe Thornton’s whole of 114 from 2006-07.
During the large episode of 32 Thoughts going by means of every crew, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was adamant that the Sharks is not going to permit this to succeed in July 1, 2027.
Friedman even jokingly roleplayed how the conversations from the Sharks’ workplace to Celebrini may go: “Macklin, you deserve the max. On the ice, off the ice, you deserve it one billion per cent. Is there any way we can sign you without giving it to you so we can do some things around you?”
Celebrini additionally finds himself in an attention-grabbing spot if he does certainly need the max. He may signal proper now for $20.8M AAV (2025-26’s max contract) or wait till the wage cap for the 2027-28 season turns into official (projected to be $113M) and signal for $22.6M AAV.
Either method, the Sharks might be prepared to again up the Brinks truck for Celebrini. The solely hope for Grier and the Sharks is that Celebrini decides to take lower than what he deserves, as Connor McDavid did with the Edmonton Oilers in 2017.
Coming out of McDavid’s rookie deal, it was the identical type of discuss as Celebrini — he deserved the max by his work on and off the ice, however determined to signal an eight-year deal value $12.5M AAV in the summertime of 2017. When McDavid’s deal kicked in for the 2018-19 season, his contract was value 15.72 per cent of the cap — a significant low cost.
Just like Celebrini, Cale Makar is eligible to signal an extension proper now, and there’s no motive why he couldn’t demand the max if he desires it.
At simply 27 years outdated, Makar has already put collectively a Hall of Fame profession within the NHL, successful each the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe trophies in 2022 and the Norris Trophy twice already in 2022 and 2025. Not to say the 507 profession factors he is amassed in simply 470 profession video games.
Makar has been broadly thought of the perfect defenceman on this planet for the final 5 years. Oddly sufficient, folks started Makar that method the season after he re-signed with the A-Z Eventz for six years at $9M AAV.
Makar’s contract has been seen as a steal this whole time. With Makar signed at an AAV that accounted for under 11.04 per cent of the cap when he signed in 2021, it helped the A-Z Eventz add extra expertise round him and Nathan MacKinnon, resulting in their nice groups lately. But now it’s time for the A-Z Eventz to pay up.
Connor McDavid (UFA 2028)
This needs to be essentially the most attention-grabbing title of the bunch. Everyone is aware of that Connor McDavid — broadly thought of the perfect total participant immediately — may demand a max contract in 2028 from both the Oilers or any of the 31 different groups that may be prepared to pay him that. He deserves it.
But who’s to say he’ll? As beforehand talked about, McDavid had the choice in 2017 to do it and handed it up. He additionally had the prospect once more this previous 12 months and didn’t. In truth, regardless that he acquired the identical AAV on his final two-year deal signed in October of 2025, he really took a smaller proportion of the cap.
The deal McDavid signed in 2017 was value 15.72 per cent, whereas the newest was solely value 12.02. McDavid has taken much less twice now to provide the Oilers an opportunity to construct a greater crew round him with a purpose to try to win the Stanley Cup.
If McDavid desires the max, he’ll get it. But going off his historical past, it’s robust to say he’ll take it.
Being the person to reset the market wouldn’t be a brand new factor for Auston Matthews.
In August 2023, Matthews signed a four-year, $13.25M AAV deal, making him the highest-paid participant by AAV in NHL historical past on the time, beating MacKinnon’s $12.6M AAV. When the deal kicked in 2024-25, it was value 15.06 per cent of the cap.
Because of lingering accidents over the past two seasons earlier than being knocked out for the rest of the 2025-26 season by Radko Gudas on March 12 following a knee-on-knee hit, Matthews hasn’t produced to the extent of a $13.25M AAV participant.
If Matthews is ready to show something close to his play in the course of the 2021-22 to 2023-24 seasons — when he gained two Hart trophies and put up 69 objectives in a single season — in the course of the subsequent two years, he’ll be capable of demand the max, whether or not it’s from the Maple Leafs or not.
Connor Bedard, the final participant on this record, comes with a little bit of a caveat. Bedard is the one participant on the record who nonetheless wants a contract earlier than the beginning of the 2026-27 season.
Bedard was deemed the ‘subsequent McDavid’ again in junior hockey after placing up 100 factors as a 16-year-old within the WHL, and the joy round him continued to construct all the way in which till he was drafted first total by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2023.
Since becoming a member of the NHL although, Bedard has struggled to dwell as much as the hype.
Even although he was over a degree per sport within the 2025-26 season with 75 factors in 69 video games, it didn’t matter. Bedard’s season prompted fixed comparisons to Celebrini and the monster season he was having. Including the truth that Celebrini made the Olympic crew whereas Bedard was left off it.
And now with two vital shoulder accidents inside a 12 months of one another — the newest occurring this summer season, which can preserve Bedard out no less than one month into the 2026-27 season — questions round Bedard’s well being are circulating.
All of this to say, whereas it’s robust to think about Bedard demanding a max contract proper now from the Blackhawks, he’s nonetheless a franchise No. 1 centre with limitless expertise at simply 20 years outdated.
In the newest 32 Thoughts episode, which appears behind the scenes of Carlsson’s provide sheet together with his brokers, Matt and Ryan Keator, Matt revealed they checked out Bedard as a participant comp.
“You know, at that point we had identified that we felt that the key comparable, you know, was Connor Bedard,” Matt informed Friedman in an interview. “And we wanted to, our plan was to wait and see where he ended up, you know, in his negotiation and negotiate from there.”
We simply noticed Carlsson get a suggestion sheet for $18M AAV, so who’s to say the subsequent one could not be on the max 20 per cent of the cap?
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