How Gavin McKenna’s first 10 video games examine to different first-overall picks

When the Toronto Maple Leafs chosen Gavin McKenna first general, it was exhausting to not have excessive hopes given he was becoming a member of a staff already flush with high-end ahead expertise.

For a second, there was debate whether or not the Leafs have been higher served entering into one other course with the choose, whether or not it was Ivar Stenberg, who was seen as a extra two-way winger, or perhaps a defenceman, which was excessive up on the staff’s checklist of wants.

Instead of specializing in want, Toronto went with the participant projected to have the upper ceiling given the scoring skill McKenna confirmed within the WHL and NCAA.

The Leafs additionally did their due diligence after they met with McKenna to see how the 18-year-old ahead would deal with the highlight of taking part in in Toronto.

Ten video games into his skilled profession, it is easy to simply take a look at the field rating and make an analysis of McKenna’s play. However, as a way to paint a greater image, different elements need to be thought-about.

To perceive the trajectory of McKenna’s begin, here is a comparability to different forwards who have been chosen first general since 2007.

A decent 10-game begin offensively, however room for extra

McKenna’s six factors put him in the course of the group of first general picks examined on this comparability.

Patrick Kane acquired himself off to the most effective begin as the one one over a point-per-game with 13 factors, adopted by Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews with 10 every. Other gamers like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard, John Tavares, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nico Hischier have been within the seven-to-nine-point mark.

Then there may be McKenna, who improved his whole to a few objectives and 6 factors after scoring towards the San Jose Sharks Monday evening. His present tempo has him forward of Steven Stamkos, Taylor Hall, Jack Hughes, Juraj Slafkovsky and Alexis Lafrenière by means of 10 video games and he is projected to complete with 25 objectives and 50 factors over an 84-game season.

He can also be the second Leafs participant age 18 or youthful within the trendy
period with six or extra factors by means of 10 profession video games.

McKenna has proven a capability to contribute each as a finisher and a playmaker, though his 18 photographs on aim counsel he has not generated the identical quantity of makes an attempt as lots of the different forwards. This was to be anticipated contemplating he’s extra of a playmaker than a shooter.

What to make of McKenna’s deployment?

What separates McKenna from most first general picks is his function. Coming to a Leafs staff with many elite forwards, it could have been robust to count on him to log heavy minutes.

Initially, the Leafs had McKenna skating alongside Tavares and William Nylander, which isn’t a nasty technique to begin your NHL profession. After three video games, the Leafs determined to make some changes, partially due to defensive matchups on the highway and an harm to Tavares.

Over the final seven video games, McKenna has been deployed on the third line and has seen the odd bump up and down the lineup relying on the sport state of affairs.

Then got here the much-talked-about benching towards the Buffalo Sabres, the place it was clear the teaching employees wished to lean on its extra defensive-minded veterans over the rookie, which led to him taking part in simply 6:36.

An analogous state of affairs occurred towards the Sharks Monday night as he solely performed 11:30 with the Leafs seeking to maintain a one-goal lead for a lot of the third interval. McKenna was on the ice for 4 shifts within the third, totaling 2:47 (0.44 common shift size), in accordance with the time-on-ice report from the league.

In comparability, Easton Cowan noticed extra ice time within the third with seven shifts and 4:44 of ice time, together with three shifts within the last 10 minutes, whereas McKenna didn’t make it off the bench.

That context is essential whenever you take a look at the general image of McKenna’s time on ice by means of 10 video games. McKenna has averaged 14:01 per recreation, significantly lower than numerous different prime gamers. However, apparently sufficient, each Stamkos and MacKinnon averaged much less ice time than McKenna by means of their first 10 video games.

Notably, MacKinnon didn’t see numerous top-six utilization in his rookie season, typically taking part in with John Mitchell and Cody McLeod on the third line. It can be robust to grasp that now, however on the time, the A-Z Eventz wished to ease MacKinnon’s transition to the NHL and had a robust group of centres like Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene and Ryan O’Reilly, which meant MacKinnon began his profession on the wing.

A lesson from Stamkos’ rookie season

When Stamkos first began off within the NHL, it was a wrestle for the highly-touted scoring ahead. Tampa’s coach that season was the late Barry Melrose, who had Stamkos as soon as play simply 6:05 in his third-ever NHL recreation. Sound acquainted?

This was not a one-off for Stamkos, who had performed 10 minutes or fewer in three of his first 4 video games. Melrose even famously mentioned in a radio interview on the Fan 590 that Stamkos was not bodily prepared for the NHL.

After Melrose was fired 16 video games into the season and Rick Tocchet took over behind the bench, it sparked a change for Stamkos.

He went from taking part in 10 or fewer minutes in 5 of his first 16 video games to averaging 15:36 minutes per recreation over the ultimate 66 video games of the season and simply three situations the place he performed lower than 10 minutes.

Now clearly the state of affairs is completely different in Toronto as Jim Hiller hasn’t approached McKenna as Melrose did with Stamkos, however you possibly can inform the Leafs’ new bench boss just isn’t throwing an excessive amount of on the rookie and because the season goes on, we would see that change a bit.

Even-strength manufacturing tells one other a part of the story

McKenna has recorded 4 even-strength factors, accounting for almost all of his six-point whole. He had been used on the second power-play unit till the Tavares harm led to him getting a promotion. This once more is partially to the Leafs having numerous forwards forward of him within the pecking order.

McKenna is not going to be referred to as forward of Matthews, William Nylander or Kirill Marchenko given their goal-scoring functionality. Really, the one alternative that the rookie should stay on the highest unit is that if he impresses sufficient throughout Tavares’ absence to warrant an extended look.

If he continues to attain objectives as he did towards San Jose on the person benefit, it may assist his case, much more so if he can showcase his playmaking skill, changing a few of what the Leafs have been lacking after Mitch Marner’s departure.

McKenna didn’t enter the NHL with the status of a defensively sound ahead, and this would be the a part of his recreation that will probably be a piece in progress. How a lot enchancment we see will most likely be as much as McKenna to indicate the teaching employees.

When McKenna was benched towards the Sabres, Hiller made it clear his precedence was to guard the lead, and the rookie was not a participant the coach wished on the ice in that situation.

As Justin Bourne famous in his evaluation of McKenna’s defensive play earlier than the benching, he had the occasional misinterpret within the impartial zone and overpursued the puck just a few instances.

It can also be essential to notice that whereas McKenna is a minus-five to begin the season, utilizing plus-minus to evaluate a participant’s defensive play would not at all times paint an correct image.

The superior stats do inform us a clearer image, nonetheless, because the underlying 5-on-5 numbers affirm that the Leafs are chasing the play and giving up high-danger appears to be like when McKenna is on the ice.

Playing with Colton Sissons and Vinni Lettieri at 5-on-5 towards the Sharks, the scoring possibilities have been 5-2 in favour of the Sharks, and that line had an anticipated objectives share of 31.8 per cent whereas beginning 62.5 per cent of the time within the offensive zone.

The Leafs are lucky to have completely different veterans to pair McKenna up with, and Sissons has been the one he is performed essentially the most with at 5-on-5 this season. They have not outchanced their opposition at 5-on-5, however they’ve a adequate xGF% collectively to maintain taking part in collectively.