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Diego Lopes got here up quick as an underdog when he took on Alexander Volkanovski for the featherweight title final 12 months and has an opportunity to avenge that loss Saturday at UFC 325, as soon as once more as a slight underdog.
When Volkanovski and Lopes met final 12 months in Miami the betting line closed with Volkanovski roughly a -145 favorite with Lopes listed at about +120 and on the eve of the 145-pound championship rematch the most recent odds are an identical.
This suggests oddsmakers expect one other aggressive struggle anticipated to final into the later rounds.
The first struggle went the gap with Volkanovski incomes a five-round unanimous resolution but this time there’s a slight lean on the rematch not going the gap.
Over 4.5 rounds and below 4.5 rounds have equal odds, as do each Lopes and Volkanovski on the subject of ending the struggle by way of KO/TKO with oddsmakers giving every fighter a +300 shot at discovering a knockout.
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Watch UFC 325 on Sportsnet+
Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes meet in a featherweight title rematch, plus Dan Hooker faces fellow brawler Benoit Saint Denis. Watch UFC 325 on Saturday, Jan. 31 with prelim protection starting 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT, and pay-per-view predominant card beginning at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT.
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UFC 325 additionally options light-weight fan favourites Dan Hooker and Benoit Saint Denis battling it out within the co-main occasion, plus a slew of Australian fighters competing in entrance of the house followers.
One preliminary card matchup was cancelled Friday following the official weigh-in and the cardboard will proceed with 13 bouts from Sydney’s Qudos Bank Arena.
Below is the projected bout order (topic to alter) for UFC 325 plus full predictions from our UFC panel who made good on their first Cage Locks Parlay of 2026 final week:
— Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
— Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis
— Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy
— Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira
— Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey
— Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana
— Cameron Rowston vs. Cody Brundage
— Jacob Malkoun vs. Torrez Finney
— Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott
— Kim Sang-wook vs. Dom Mar Fan
— Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Sebastian Szalay
— Sulang Rangbo vs. Lawrence Lui
Ahead of every UFC occasion in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and author/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the percentages and make 4 betting predictions utilizing fantasy {dollars}: one finest wager, one favorite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is dedicated to selling and educating audiences concerning the significance of betting responsibly. Sources for accountable playing might be discovered HERE.
Cage Lock: Teixeira/Tuivasa doesn’t go the gap -1000
Favourite: Alexander Volkanovski -143
Underdog: Kaan Ofli +170
Dart Throw: Salkilld vs. Mullarkey goes the gap +475
We have seen unusual ends in the heavyweight division, however it will be a shock to see Tuivasa and Teixeira go the gap primarily based on how they struggle. … Volkanovski is a small favorite after how simply he outpointed Lopes lower than a 12 months in the past and I don’t anticipate that Lopes has made up sufficient floor until Father Time all of a sudden catches as much as the champion. … Ofli seemed nice in his final outing and I imagine his struggle with Yi Zha ought to be lined nearer. … Salkilld seems to be an incredible prospect, however his ending fee isn’t so excessive that profitable inside the gap ought to be a foregone conclusion towards Mullarkey. While I feel that is truly a step down in competitors for Salkilld, Mullarkey has what it takes to make this a troublesome struggle.
Cage Lock: Quillan Salkilld -715
Favourite: Billy Elekana -250
Underdog: Oban Elliott +114
Dart Throw: Torrez Finney by KO/TKO +500
I went swinging for the fences final week and ended up grounding out on the primary occasion of the 12 months, however defeat is all the time momentary because the UFC returns with one other numbered occasion and an opportunity at getting again within the win column. Salkilld is the most important betting favorite and is the most secure wager on the cardboard. … Elekana has bounced again properly with two wins since being unceremoniously knocked out by Bogdan Guskov in his UFC debut. Junior Tafa seemed terrible when he dropped right down to 205 kilos in a submission loss to Tuco Tokkos. Elekana has all of the momentum right here and three viable paths to victory. … I feel recency bias is impacting the moneyline on Elliott. He was on a roll previous to dropping to Seokhyeon Ko by resolution. Elliott has extra expertise on the UFC degree than Jonathan Micallef and could have made the required changes to get again to his profitable methods.
Torrez Finney has but to understand his true potential in MMA. He’s proven flashes of being an absolute monster within the cage. But for each step ahead, he appears to take one backwards. I feel an upset on scorecards is probably going right here, however I’m going with a KO/TKO to satisfy the standards for a dart throw. Finney does have a number of KO wins on the regional scene and completed his opponent on DWCS (after failing to safe a contract in his two earlier makes an attempt). This is a pivotal bout in Finney’s profession and will probably be fascinating to see if he can seize the second or grind out one other boring resolution win. Maybe the brand new bonuses will encourage him to take extra dangers.
Cage Lock: Cam Rowston -385
Favourite: Jonathan Micallef -130
Underdog: Diego Lopes +120
Dart Throw: Dan Hooker by way of cut up/majority resolution +2500
Benoit Saint Denis has solely gone the gap as soon as in his profession however Hooker as gone to a cut up resolution in two of his previous three appearances. The co-main may flip right into a three-round barnburner and Hooker’s possibilities shouldn’t be written off. He may additionally get a KO/TKO (+550) however I’m going for a longshot this week.
Lopes discovered Volk’s chin a pair occasions of their first struggle however couldn’t seal the deal and get a end. It’s totally attainable the rematch mirrors the primary bout in some ways together with final result however the reality the percentages aren’t any totally different than they have been at UFC 314 is telling. Lopes is youthful and has improved since dropping to Volkanovski. Lopes has 25 minutes to harm the champ and play spoiler. … Unless Cody Brundage grinds out a win over Rowston with wrestling the way in which Torrez Finney did on the Contender Series a pair years in the past I see Rowston having extra methods to complete this struggle with Brundage.
Three legs: Teixeira/Tuivasa doesn’t go distance + Salkilld + Rowston
Parlay odds: -173 (to win: $57.95)
2026 STANDINGS AFTER 1 EVENT
2026 winnings: +$89.12 (on $100 bets)
AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (3-1, +2.36 items)
DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (1-3, -2.87 items)
MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (1-3, -2.65 items)
Cage Lock: The choose deemed to be the wager most definitely to win no matter what the percentages seem like. The Cage Locks parlay will mix Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective finest wager for every occasion.
Favourite: A fighter with profitable odds shorter than -300 however not longer than -110. On chalkier playing cards with a dearth of accessible moneyline favourites that meet these standards, prop bets are allowed to be chosen.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop wager or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are by way of BetMGM, submitted at numerous occasions all through week, and topic to alter previous to the fights)
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