What final yr’s trades inform us about Blue Jays forward of upcoming deadline

TORONTO — This a lot is for certain: over the course of the following month, dozens of MLB gamers will probably be traded as contenders look to enhance their rosters for October.

Less clear for now: who will probably be traded and at what price. Some groups haven’t decided whether or not they’re patrons or sellers but, and every commerce market takes on a lifetime of its personal, creating uncertainty. That means patrons just like the Toronto Blue Jays should keep versatile as they search for potential upgrades — in Toronto’s case, beginning pitchers, relievers and right-handed bats.

So, how a lot wouldn’t it price to purchase in every class? It’s an necessary query for the Blue Jays, who’re positioned as clear patrons with a 47-38 document. While their farm system has improved during the last calendar yr and there’s a robust case to be made for utilizing it to enhance the MLB workforce within the hopes of creating a deep playoff run, no normal supervisor can afford to half recklessly with minor-league expertise.

In case final yr’s commerce deadline can provide some clues about what’s forward this July, I took a more in-depth take a look at each commerce from final summer time. This isn’t arbitration, so we are able to’t simply copy and paste these trades and apply them to 2025, however they’re related reference factors nonetheless.

Here’s what I discovered from inspecting the 68 trades that have been accomplished final July — and what these classes would possibly imply for this yr’s Blue Jays:

Expect a flurry of late strikes

As is normally the case in baseball, deadlines drive motion. Of the 68 trades that occurred final July, 60 of them have been accomplished within the week main as much as the deadline. 

Applied to the 2025 Blue Jays: It appears doubtless most Blue Jays strikes occur late, particularly since they’ll know extra concerning the well being of gamers like Anthony Santander, Yimi Garcia, Max Scherzer and Alek Manoah later within the month.

Platoon bats can be found for a modest worth

Jesse Winker, Justin Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Mark Canha and Josh Bell have been among the many bench bats moved eventually yr’s deadline. All however Bell have been acquired in one-for-one offers the place the prospect going the opposite approach was ranked no increased than seventeenth within the shopping for workforce’s farm system, as assessed by MLB Pipeline. Meanwhile, Bell was acquired for even much less — a participant to be named later.

Applied to the 2025 Blue Jays: GM Ross Atkins mentioned Monday the Blue Jays are excited about including a right-handed hitter to the lineup. If that’s nonetheless the case three or 4 weeks from now, the price of buying a veteran like Andrew McCutchen or Harrison Bader doubtless wouldn’t be particularly excessive. Someone like Ramon Laureano or Rob Refsnyder may cost a little extra since additionally they play within the AL East, however even then we’re doubtless not speaking about one of many Blue Jays’ prime 10 prospects.

Everyday gamers require a lot greater returns

As anticipated, the price of buying an on a regular basis hitter was far better. Three gamers have been required to acquire every of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes and Lane Thomas and every deal included a distinguished headliner: catching prospect Agustin Ramirez for Chisholm Jr., Mariners No. 12 prospect Aidan Smith for Arozarena, infielder Christopher Morel for Paredes and Guardians No. 8 prospect Alex Clemmey for Thomas.

Applied to the 2025 Blue Jays: As of now, this most likely isn’t the place the Blue Jays are focusing their efforts. If they’re giving up an enormous package deal of prospects, it’s extra doubtless for pitching.

Low-velo right-handed relievers have extremely restricted commerce worth

At the time they have been traded, right-handers Mark Leiter Jr., Dylan Floro and Trevor Richards have been every averaging underneath 92 m.p.h. with their fastballs. The return for all three was extraordinarily mild, as not one of the minor-leaguers coming again have been ranked amongst their earlier group’s prime 30 by MLB Pipeline.

Applied to the 2025 Blue Jays: If the Blue Jays encounter some accidents within the subsequent month and easily want methods to remain afloat, they’ll be capable to store on this aisle fairly comfortably. And it may possibly work, as Leiter Jr. confirmed by posting a 1.69 ERA in six ALCS and World Series appearances final yr. But this isn’t plan A for anybody — if it have been, the Yankees wouldn’t have left Leiter Jr. off their preliminary ALDS and ALCS rosters final yr. The Blue Jays ought to intention increased right here, and historical past tells us they doubtless will.

High-velo, bat-missing relievers have huge commerce worth — whilst leases

The Padres gave up 4 prospects ranked No. 2, 4, 5 and 24 by MLB Pipeline of their commerce for Tanner Scott, a rental. Another rental, Yimi Garcia, required two prospects, together with Jonatan Clase, who ranked tenth on Seattle’s checklist. And the Phillies gave up two prospects for Carlos Estevez, additionally a rental.

The widespread threads? Scott, Garcia and Estevez every averaged 96.8 m.p.h. or increased on their fastballs whereas hanging out at the very least 25.8 per cent of opposing hitters (league common was 22.6 per cent in 2024).

Relievers who throw laborious and generate swing and miss are in excessive demand this time of yr as a result of they assist win brief playoff sequence. Plus, not each purchaser wants a bench bat or a catcher — however each final workforce can discover room for elite swing-and-miss relievers. That provides the sellers leverage and raises the value.

Applied to the 2025 Blue Jays: This isn’t information to the Blue Jays, who’ve splurged on coveted relievers earlier than, together with most lately in 2023 after they acquired Jordan Hicks for pitchers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. It’s a necessity once more this yr, so anticipate Atkins to pursue high-end relievers, and anticipate the associated fee to be excessive if the Blue Jays land one. It’s simply the value of doing enterprise.

Controllable relievers are costly, too — however not approach pricier than leases

The worth for controllable, high-velo, swing-and-miss relievers was excessive final yr, as you’d anticipate. Jason Adam, Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey, Gregory Soto and A.J. Puk all had 95 m.p.h. fastballs and above-average strikeout charges on the time they have been traded final yr, and a number of prospects have been required to acquire everybody however Harvey, who was acquired for one prospect and the thirty ninth general decide within the 2024 draft — arguably a good increased worth.

At the identical time, there wasn’t an apparent enhance in prospect quantity or prospect high quality required to acquire relievers underneath workforce management past 2024 — maybe a mirrored image of the volatility inherent to the place.

Applied to the 2025 Blue Jays: If the Blue Jays are going to surrender two or three intriguing prospects for a reliever, they might as nicely search extra workforce management alongside the best way, all issues being equal.

It’s not all about velo — command and supply matter, too

The examples of Nate Pearson and Ryne Stanek present that velocity alone doesn’t create commerce worth. Stanek was battling main command points on the time of his commerce, and the Mariners have been prepared to maneuver on as they’d simply acquired Garcia. And whereas Pearson throws laborious, he has an extended historical past of house run points — maybe as a result of there’s not a lot deception in his supply.

Compare Pearson to somebody like Adam, who hides the ball extraordinarily nicely, and you may see why Pearson’s profession house run charge is sort of double that of Adam. As a consequence, Adam had rather more commerce worth. 

Applied to the 2025 Blue Jays: Something like deception isn’t straightforward to quantify, however groups care about this — and understandably so. Expect the Blue Jays to take this under consideration as they examine completely different relievers.

The worth on back-end starters is low

Back-end starters like Aaron Civale, Paul Blackburn, Michael Lorenzen, Martín Pérez and Alex Cobb have been acquired for one prospect apiece final yr, and none of these minor-leaguers have been ranked increased than nineteenth on their former workforce’s checklist of prime 30 prospects.

Civale and Blackburn have been extra than simply leases, however even then their worth was restricted with fastballs averaging roughly 92 m.p.h. and comparatively modest strikeout to stroll ratios.

The one exception to this development: Trevor Rogers, a controllable lefty with middling peripherals who was traded for Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. Give the Marlins credit score for this one, as GM Peter Bendix appeared to outmaneuver the Orioles right here to get a return that stands out from the others.

Applied to the 2025 Blue Jays: Given the uncertainty in the back of their rotation, the Blue Jays have to be in on this market, however historical past suggests they shouldn’t need to half with prime minor leaguers to get a deal executed for an Andrew Heaney or Charlie Morton kind if wanted.

Anyone who might begin a playoff sport will price a number of good prospects

The returns for Yusei Kikuchi, Jack Flaherty and Zach Eflin remind us that buying anybody with the upside to start out a playoff sport will probably be costly, rental or not. There was merely an excessive amount of demand for these pitchers for the value to be low right here because the Twins, Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles and Astros have been all motivated so as to add beginning pitching final summer time.

A yr later, the return for Kikuchi hasn’t lived as much as its potential, however on the time executives have been impressed by the trio of Jake Bloss, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido. Meanwhile, Flaherty price a number of prospects in Thayron Liranzo and Trey Sweeney and Eflin commanded a three-player package deal of Mac Horvath, Jackson Baumeister and Matthew Etzel.

Applied to the 2025 Blue Jays: If somebody like Merrill Kelly is offered, he’ll doubtless require a three-prospect return. While he’s not an ace, Kelly’s totally able to beginning in October and his $7 million wage means numerous contenders will need in. A real ace like Jacob deGrom would presumably price much more, however pitchers of that calibre can be found so hardly ever that there’s no good comp from 2024. The Rangers might merely title their worth.

So whereas Atkins will certainly store on this part of the market, the expectation ought to be that the price of a No. 2 or 3 starter could be three attention-grabbing minor leaguers or younger major-leaguers together with a notable headliner. And whereas the Blue Jays is perhaps keen to pay this worth, it’s not totally inside their management as sellers will in the end be capable to zero in on the farm techniques they like most whereas leaving others on learn. With that in thoughts, a workforce just like the Marlins will be capable to name the photographs on a pitcher like Sandy Alcantara, simply because the Blue Jays did with Kikuchi a yr in the past.