Cap Comparables: Evaluating Thatcher Demko’s extension with Canucks

If upgrading your goalie state of affairs was on the high of the precedence checklist this summer season, we remorse to tell you that the circumstances could not be a lot worse for that plan of action in 2025.

By the time the free agent market opened on July 1, the very best out there goalies had been the likes of Dan Vladar, Alex Lyon, Ilya Samsonov, James Reimer or Anton Forsberg. Jake Allen was shaping as much as be the cream of this 12 months’s crop, however he re-signed with New Jersey shortly earlier than the market opened.

Even the commerce market is skinny. After years of being hooked up to commerce rumours, John Gibson was lastly dealt by Anaheim, touchdown in Detroit over draft weekend. He was the one goalie to look on Nick Kypreos’ low season commerce board.

Goalies may be fickle to challenge, so often when you’ve a great one you wish to hold on for pricey life. This is why Ilya Sorokin, Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, Connor Hellebuyck and the like had been re-signed to important contracts with their groups.

And but, goaltending has been a place the place groups have tried to pinch pennies and discover values earlier than, typically to nice success. The Vegas Golden Knights received the Stanley Cup in 2023 when Adin Hill was making $2.75 million towards the cap.

The Toronto Maple Leafs received the Atlantic Division this season with Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz splitting the web. Colorado was a Stanley Cup contender that rebuilt its crease throughout the season by buying and selling for MacKenzie Blackwood (later signed to an extension) and Scott Wedgewood. The Edmonton Oilers have reached back-to-back finals with Stuart Skinner making $2.6 million.

However, when push involves shove, current outcomes recommend the costlier, confirmed, upper-echelon goalies will as a rule get you thru. Sergei Bobrovsky is a back-to-back champ making $10 million towards the cap; Oettinger has been to a few straight convention finals; Shesterkin bought to the convention ultimate in 2024; and Tampa received two Cups and reached three finals in a row with Andrei Vasilevskiy.

There was a time when the Vancouver Canucks had been hopeful that Thatcher Demko would match into that tier of goalie. ‘Bubble Demko’ turned a legend in 4 appearances throughout the 2020 playoffs and from there took over the web from Jacob Markstrom. What adopted was back-to-back seasons with a .915 save share and, in 2023-24, he turned a Vezina finalist.

From 2021-22 by means of the 2023-24 season Demko had a .913 save share, which was equal to Oettinger and two factors higher than Vasilevskiy within the common season. At his greatest Demko has flashed that potential. The drawback for Demko, and the Canucks, is that the netminder has struggled to remain wholesome. After sustaining a knee damage within the 2024 playoffs that carried over to the beginning of the subsequent season, Demko performed solely 23 video games in 2024-25, posted an .889 save share and was barely higher than breaking even in Goals Saved Above Expected.

So when he signed an extension on Tuesday for 3 years, an $8.5 million AAV, and a full no-movement clause, the preliminary sticker shock raised some eyebrows. With one 12 months left on his present contract ($5 million AAV), the Canucks selected to lock in Demko, wager on him being wholesome, in high type subsequent season, and keep away from strolling him to free company. Between Demko and Kevin Lankinen, who was prolonged in February, the Canucks can be spending a mixed $13 million on the place from 2026-27 by means of 2028-29 and really feel that is not a place they should fear about for some time.

With contracts presently in place, when Demko’s extension kicks in, he’ll be the third-highest paid goalie within the league, behind Shesterkin and Vasilevskiy, and tied with Hellebuyck. But at any time when we talk about contract values as of late, we’ve to contemplate how all of a sudden the comparables are altering. In Year 1 of Demko’s extension the higher wage cap restrict can be $104 million, that means his contract can be 8.17 per cent of the cap — equal to a $7.189 million cap hit in 2024-25.

So the Canucks imagine Demko can nonetheless be a distinction maker and a No. 1 starter within the league, although cautiously approached the state of affairs with a shorter time period take a look at the price of the next AAV.

When you take into account the entire image — the shortage of high quality out there goalies, the rising cap, Demko’s play when wholesome — this contract worth begins to make extra sense. In some methods, Demko is in a wage tier of his personal, as we’ll present within the following cap comparables:

Jacob Markstrom: $6 million AAV

Why not begin with Demko’s former battery mate in Vancouver? When Markstrom left the Canucks to signal with Calgary in free company in 2020, the wage cap was $81.5 million. Markstrom’s AAV was $6 million on the brand new deal, that means that within the first 12 months of the contract he was making 7.36 per cent of the cap.

Marksrom would flip 31 halfway by means of the primary 12 months of that contract and had solely been a bonafide No. 1 NHL goalies for 3 years. Demko — once more who will make 8.17 per cent of the 2026-27 cap — will even flip 31 after that season begins and if wholesome may have been a No. 1 for an extended time frame.

Jordan Binnington: $6 million AAV

Like Markstrom, Binnington additionally makes $6 million towards the cap and the primary 12 months of his contract additionally accounted for 7.36 per cent of the cap. The St. Louis Blues starter was 27 on the time he signed the deal and had received a Stanley Cup, but in addition noticed his numbers dip the 2 years after profitable the title and the Blues had been eradicated within the first spherical twice in a row.

While Demko’s cap share in Year 1 can be greater than each Markstrom’s and Binnington’s had been within the first 12 months of their offers, there’s another wrinkle to contemplate: the wage cap rose $2 million complete from 2020-21 by means of 2023-24. But within the second 12 months of Demko’s contract, the wage cap is projected to rise by $9.5 million, significantly bringing his share down.

Connor Hellebuyck: $8.5 million AAV

When Demko’s extension kicks in after subsequent season, his AAV can be equal to Hellebuyck’s, which is probably not the very best visible. But there are key variations. One is that Hellebuyck signed for seven years, which is able to deliver him to the top (or close to the top) of his profession and certain saved the cap hit right down to a level. Another is that Hellebuyck’s cap hit share was 9.66 within the first 12 months of his contract, effectively above Demko.

A 9.66 cap hit share towards a $104 million higher restrict could be equal to a couple of $10 million AAV.

Jeremy Swayman: $8.25 million AAV

Boston’s goalie is in a distinct bucket in that he was an RFA on the time of signing, however as a result of he prolonged for eight years, six of these would have been UFA years.

This was a contentious negotiation that carried on into coaching camp and bought caught up within the media, however after the Bruins traded away Linus Ullmark, Swayman’s leverage was that he was the workforce’s solely starter left. A William Jennings winner in 2023 (together with Ullmark), Swayman was 25 when he signed with immense upside, however he had but to start out greater than half a season’s value of video games.

In Year 1 of his contract, Swayman’s deal accounted for 9.38 per cent of the cap.