UFC Cage Locks: Will it’s Kape or Almabayev to succeed in subsequent flyweight degree?

The UFC units up store on the Apex this weekend with flyweight motion headlining a 10-bout Fight Night card.

The featured matchup is a scheduled five-round contest between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev.

Kape enters his first UFC essential occasion ranked because the No. 6 contender at 125 kilos. The Angola-born 31-year-old is a former Rizin champion with a earlier technical knockout win over current UFC title challenger Kai Asakura. Kape is using the momentum he gained from a dominant December win over Bruno Silva.

Almabayev is 21-2 as an expert and a winner of 17 in a row. He’s solely 4-0 within the UFC however the 31-year-old from Kazakhstan entered the rankings and rose to No. 8 after a 3-0 marketing campaign in 2024 that culminated with a unanimous choice win over Matheus Nicolau in October in his most up-to-date look.

Kape was initially speculated to battle No. 1 flyweight contender Brandon Royval on the occasion, nonetheless an harm pressured Royval off the cardboard firstly of the month.

The group introduced two cancellations to the preliminary card Friday throughout the official weigh-in.

A girls’s flyweight matchup between Montana De La Rosa and Luana Carolina was pulled from the cardboard attributable to weight administration points from Carolina, plus a catchweight bout between Douglas Silva de Andrade and John Castaneda was additionally cancelled attributable to a medical concern on the Silva de Andrade aspect.

Featherweight Lucas Almeida missed weight by two kilos forward of his conflict with Danny Silva, nonetheless this matchup will proceed at a catchweight and Almeida as fined 20 per cent of his purse.

Projected bout order for UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev plus full predictions beneath…

— Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev         

— Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez

— Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics

— Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis

— Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson

— Austen Lane vs. Mario Pinto

— Ricardo Ramos vs. Chepe Mariscal            

— Danny Silva vs. Lucas Almeida

— Andrea Lee vs. JJ Aldrich

— Charles Johnson vs. Ramazan Temirov

Ahead of every UFC occasion in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and author/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the chances and make 4 betting predictions: one finest guess, one favorite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is dedicated to selling and educating audiences concerning the significance of betting responsibly. Sources for accountable playing will be discovered HERE.

AARON’S PICKS
Best guess: Lane vs. Pinto doesn’t go the space -357
Favourite: Lane vs. Pinto Does Not Start Round 3 -200
Underdog: Kape vs. Almabaev Ends Inside the Distance +110
Dart throw: Haqparast by choice +400

While it’s dangerous to have half your picks hinge on a battle between two unranked heavyweights, we’re going to let it fly! I count on that most of the time, Lane and Pinto don’t go the space and that there’s a higher probability of the battle ending within the first spherical than within the third spherical. Also, with 5 rounds to play with and each the hazard that Kape brings on the toes and the vast majority of Almabaev’s fights ending inside the space, I may actually see a end in the principle occasion, particularly within the later rounds. Finally, Haqparast is all the time in shut fights and I’d not be stunned to see him outpoint Ribovics if he makes use of a extra technical method.

DAN’S PICKS
Best guess: Mario Pinto -555
Favourite: William Gomis – 200
Underdog: Cody Brundage +100
Dart throw: Pinto wins by choice +400

I’ve rather a lot using on the debut of Portugal’s Mario Pinto this week. Not solely does Mr. “Bing Bang Bosh” have one of many coolest catchphrases in MMA, he appears like he has loads of energy together with the abilities and composure to wanted to efficiently implement his hard-hitting offence on the UFC degree. He was dominant in Europe and seemed nice on DWCS however I also can see the skilled Austen Lane doing sufficient to outlive three rounds. Lane was in a position to negate the hanging energy of Robelis Despaigne the final outing on path to victory. But Pinto appears strong in all points of MMA and wont panic if he’s taken down. I additionally count on William Gomis to win his 14th battle in a row and provides me Cody Brundage to upset the chances.

MIKE’S PICKS
Best guess: Lee vs. Aldrich goes the space -454
Favourite: Charles Johnson -133
Underdog: Cody Brundage +100
Dart throw: Sam Patterson by submission +450

Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson is one among my most anticipated matchups on this card. Barlow remains to be unbeaten and Patterson has seemed nice since transferring as much as 170, and I may see Brit’s limbs and leverage giving Barlow issues on the bottom if he’s in a position to get the motion there. At this stage of their respective careers, I’m unsure why Brundage is the listed underdog on this spot, however I do get why Charles Johnson is the slight fave over a streaking knockout artist. I’m loving the run “InnerG” is on so I’ll roll with him to resist Temirov’s early onslaught. Also, my lock is perhaps probably the most boring set-it-and-forget-it decide of all-time however Andrea Lee and JJ Aldrich each almost all the time go the scorecards and I merely can’t envision another final result right here once they meet on the prelims.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Lane vs. Pinto doesn’t go the space + Pinto wins + Lee vs. Aldrich goes the space
Parlay odds: -119 (to win: $84.36)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 6 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 
2025 report: 2-4 (L3)
2025 winnings: -$238.70 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+6.78 items)
Best guess: 5-1 (-$25.52)
Favourite: 2-4 (-$296.81)
Underdog: 4-1-1 (+$500.24)
Dart throw: 2-4 (+$500)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+2.23 items)
Best guess: 5-1 (-$2.82)
Favourite: 3-3 (-$79.60)
Underdog: 4-2 (+$345.24)
Dart throw: 1-5 (-$40)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-3.30 items)
Best guess: 4-2 (-$93.41)
Favourite: 5-1 (+$239.29)
Underdog: 2-3-1 (+$70)
Dart throw: 0-6 (-$600)

Best guess: The decide deemed to be the wager almost definitely to win no matter what the chances appear like. The Cage Locks parlay will mix Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective finest guess for every occasion.

Favourite: A fighter with successful odds shorter than -300 however not longer than -110. On chalkier playing cards with a dearth of accessible moneyline favourites that meet these standards, prop bets are allowed to be chosen.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart throw: Any prop guess or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are through BetMGM, submitted at varied occasions all through week, and topic to vary previous to the fights)